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GBP

Data Cadence Slows, But Bond Auctions Represent Clear and Present Danger

The US dollar is trading with a softer tone this morning, slipping against all of its major counterparts as it relinquishes gains made on the heels of Friday’s robust jobs report. Ten-year Treasury yields are retreating from the 4.5-percent mark before a heavy slate of bond auctions, equity futures are holding steady ahead of the North American open, and implied volatility in currency markets is subsiding toward historical averages as the pace of top-tier data releases slows and investor risk appetite shows tentative signs of improvement. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates....

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US Job Creation Holds Firm, Driving Dollar Higher

The US job creation engine maintained its modest momentum last month, keeping the Federal Reserve sidelined for now. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 139,000 jobs were added in May – representing an overshoot relative to the 125,000-consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent, as expected. Average hourly earnings climbed 3.9 percent, pointing to relative resilience in aggregate household incomes. However, the previous two months were revised lower by a cumulative 95,000 positions, and the manufacturing sector shed 8,000 jobs. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are climbing as rate cut expectations are pushed further into the...

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US jobs in focus

• US wobbles. US equities declined & USD softened. Public spat between Musk & Trump intensified. AUD touched a fresh year-to-date high.• Macro trends. ECB delivered a ‘hawkish’ cut. Tweaks to inflation forecasts & rhetoric suggest ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle.• US jobs. Monthly US jobs figures in focus tonight. Various indicators point to a cooling US labour market. Will the data spring a surprise? Global Trends A couple of push-pull forces generated a few wobbles overnight. On net, in contrast to the modest uptick in European equities the major US markets declined (S&P500 -0.5%) with...

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Hold the line

• Holding on. Consolidation across markets on Friday. US yields slipped back. AUD & NZD tread water. AUD near 1-month average.• Data flow. Tariff impacts starting to show. Container traffic to US slowing. Medium-term downside growth risks remain in place, in our view.• Event Radar. Q1 AU GDP due this week. ECB & BoC are meeting. A few US Fed members speak. US ISM & monthly jobs report also scheduled. Global Trends Despite a flurry of US data releases on Friday it was a quiet end to the week in markets. On net the US S&P500 was little changed over...

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Tariff Celebration Proves Short-Lived

Financial markets this morning celebrated a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s trade war after the bipartisan US Court of International Trade ruled that he overstepped his authority in using emergency powers to impose tariffs – but the relief rally is fading in the face of data that suggests the economy is losing momentum. North American equity indices are still marching toward solid gains – partially supported by last night’s positive earnings release from artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia Corp. – and implied volatility expectations are declining, but ten-year Treasury yields are falling, and the dollar is conceding territory as the session...

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