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GBP

Hawks in the Fed nest

• Fed hike. A ‘hawkish’ US Fed rate rise. Forecasts point to more ‘tightening’ later this year. US equities dip. USD firmer. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Macro pulse. US retail sales stronger than expected. US Fed has more work to do. BoE tonight & BoJ tomorrow. RBA predicted to hike rates later this month. Global Trends Economic events in the US were in focus overnight with a strong retail sales report compounded by a ‘hawkish’ interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US retail sales grew 1.2% in August, a positive signal about broader macro momentum given...

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Tension rises ahead of Fed decision

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. The dollar is holding firm, with investors and economists overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will raise rates for the first time in more than three years, amid a surge in global energy prices and a jump in long-term yields. Oil remains above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia, after coming under sustained attack from Iran and its allies, suspended loading at its Yanbu port and cancelled some shipments to Europe. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below 5%, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open....

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Bond selloff continues, lending support to the dollar

Good morning. The selloff in global bond markets is intensifying this morning, pushing yields to their highest levels in decades and weighing on risk appetite across the financial system. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 5% mark, equity futures are pointing to losses at the open, and the dollar is advancing incrementally against all of its G10 counterparts. After a brief reversal yesterday, energy prices are climbing once again, with benchmark Brent crude futures trading above $105 a barrel as buyers scramble to secure supplies amid a deepening shortfall. The Middle East’s biggest energy exporter, Saudi Arabia, is under...

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Energy prices rebound, destabilising markets ahead of central bank decisions

Happy Monday. Long-term bond yields are climbing and the dollar is advancing as a rebound in global energy prices raises the stakes ahead of central bank decisions later this week. Brent crude is trading for nearly $108 a barrel after Houthi militants seized a Red Sea port, threatening oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and drones struck at least two pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, forcing a system-wide shutdown. Equity futures are pointing to losses at the open after US artificial intelligence companies led by OpenAI argued that development should be slowed to allow a better understanding...

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Oil & bond yields still in the driver’s seat

• Market wobbles. Higher oil prices & rising yields dampen sentiment. Equities dip, USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground. AUD underperforms on crosses.• Data pulse. ECB raised rates overnight. US CPI due tonight. Markets pricing in a ~70% chance US Fed hikes next week. US CPI could generate volatility. Global Trends It was a case of rinse and repeat across markets overnight with another jump in oil and move higher in bond yields darkening the mood. In terms of oil a greater ‘supply risk premium’ continues to be incorporated with the renewed Middle East hostilities and heightened chances of...

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