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GBP

Holding pattern

• Consolidation. Partial reversal in some markets. US equities slip back while yields & the USD tick up. AUD eased but still near the top of its range.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation due tomorrow. A lot of uncertainty due to electricity subsidies. A large drop in the annual headline rate could weigh on the AUD.• Fed pricing. Markets grappling with whether the US Fed will cut rates by 25bps or 50bps at upcoming meetings. History & the data points to 25bp steps. After the outsized moves last week it isn’t surprising to see that some markets cooled their jets a...

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Dollar Sends Out-of-Office Autoreply

The almighty greenback is making a lacklustre attempt at climbing off the mat after suffering the worst selloff in a year during Friday’s session, with rising geopolitical tensions doing little to reverse its losses. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar is up incrementally this morning, but has fallen roughly 3 percent this month, pacing declines in Treasury yields even after Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon generated a mild safe haven bid over the weekend. Oil prices are modestly higher, equity futures are seeing cautious inflows, and the pound, euro, and yen are turning in mixed performances amid holiday-thinned...

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The time has come

• Dovish Powell. US Fed Chair gave strong signals the start of the rate cutting cycle is approaching. Focus now on downside labour market risks.• Market jolt. Equities & commodities jumped, bond yields & the USD declined. AUD at the top of its 7-month range. EUR highest since mid-2023.• Event radar. Locally, July CPI (Weds), CAPEX (Thurs), & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, Eurozone inflation & US PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Markets ended last week on a positive note with the more dovish than anticipated message from US Fed Chair Powell boosting risk sentiment (see below). US equities...

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Markets Wait to Exhale

Global risk appetite is improving, but trading liquidity remains thin ahead of this morning’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The dollar is retreating, the pound and euro are inching higher, Treasury yields are flat, and equity futures are pointing to gains at the North American open. Odds on a half-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting have fallen sharply from the early-August peak, but markets nonetheless expect Powell to deliver a distinctly dovish outlook, setting the stage for at least one outsized move in the autumn months by emphasising downside...

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Reversal of fortune

• Market turn. US equities dipped, while bond yields & the USD rose. The reversal has taken some of the heat out of the AUD.• Data pulse. Solid US data & ‘cautious’ comments from Fed officials about the looming rate cut cycle underpinned the moves.• Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. A further push back on aggressive rate cut bets could see the USD’s revival extend. A reversal of fortune in markets over the past 24hrs. US equities dipped (S&P500 -0.9%), with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.7%). US bond yields have risen by ~5-7bps across the curve with the...

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