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Currency Markets Steady As Traders Await Fed Communications

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Most major currency pairs remain trapped in tight price ranges this morning as volumes fall, but the dollar is firming slightly as traders hedge themselves against an unexpectedly-hawkish message from Jerome Powell at Friday’s meeting in Jackson Hole, and Treasury yields are pushing modestly higher. Although technology stocks are paring their losses after yesterday’s swoon, broader equity indices look set to print slightly lower at the open. The British pound is almost unchanged even after inflation climbed to an 18-month high, topping market forecasts and seemingly complicating the Bank of England’s easing plans. According to an...

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Markets hit an air pocket

• Market wobbles. A small bout of risk aversion overnight. US equities declined while the USD ticked up. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ expected to cut rates again today. Will it flag even more easing down the track? NZD & AUD/NZD volatility likely to lift today.• Fed speak. Markets focused on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech (Fri night AEST). Will Chair Powell be more ‘dovish’ than priced? Global Trends A few risk-off wobbles across markets overnight. There was no new major news driving the moves, rather a pullback in some markets with stretched valuations...

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Currency Market Price Action Slows, Canadian Inflation Eases

A sense of calm has descended upon global financial markets as the data cadence slows, geopolitical developments settle to a dull roar, and monetary policy expectations stabilise. Benchmark Treasury yields are almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s open, equity futures are pointing to another day of incremental gains, and measures of implied currency volatility remain low—even across short-term tenors that include Friday’s hotly-anticipated speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Here in Canada, inflation pressures subsided more than expected last month, slightly raising the likelihood of a rate cut in early 2026. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the...

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Jackson Hole in focus

• Consolidation. US equities drifted back a bit on Friday, but still rose over the week. USD a little softer. AUD & NZD ticked up modestly.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates again (Weds). Global PMIs are due (Thurs). US Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole (Fri night AEST). Global Trends A subdued end to last week across markets as macro and geopolitical forces pushed and pulled on various asset classes. On net, US equities drifted back a bit from record highs on Friday (S&P500 -0.3%), though it wasn’t enough to stop the S&P500 from posting its 6th...

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Revived US inflation fears

• US PPI. Much stronger than expected US producer prices rekindled inflation fears. US yields rose, as did the USD. AUD back below 1-month average.• AU jobs. Employment report broadly inline with forecasts. Unemployment hovering just above 4%. Supports the case for gradual RBA easing.• Data flow. China activity data due today. In the US, retail sales & industrial production out tonight. Data could generate more USD volatility. Global Trends There was a bit of a ripple across markets overnight on the back of resurfacing US inflation fears. US Producer Prices were much stronger than forecast with the 0.9% monthly...

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