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Israeli Attack on Iran Leaves Markets Rattled

Financial markets are suffering another round of tumult this morning after Israel launched dozens of air strikes against Iran, targeting its air defences, nuclear programme, and military leadership. As we go to print, it is clear that at least twenty top officials in Iran – including the military chief of staff, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, secretary of the National Security Council, and a number of nuclear scientists – have been killed, and that the Israeli Air Force has established air superiority over much of the country, paving the way for more intensive operations against nuclear enrichment infrastructure. Equity futures...

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Volatility Surges as Israel Strikes Iran

The US dollar is surging against most of its major counterparts as Israel launches airstrikes on Iran, threatening to ignite a new war in the Middle East – still the origin of nearly a third of global oil production. With reports of explosions in Tehran crossing the wires, crude oil benchmarks are snapping higher as risk premia soar, Treasury yields are falling, and equity futures are bleeding. The “pre-emptive strike” – to use the words of Israeli defence minister Israel Katz – has been widely rumoured for a few days, but its magnitude and key objectives remain unknown. Unconfirmed reports...

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Crosscurrents

• Mixed signals. Positive US CPI offset by lack of US/China trade progress. S&P500 dipped, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD also eased back.• Tariff impacts. Some signs of tariffs in US inflation. But other factors working the opposite way. Will US inflation re-accelerate down the track?• Data flow. US producer prices & jobless claims tonight. Next week US Fed meets, China data is due, & the AU jobs report is released. Global Trends Contrasting US economic and trade tariff news generated a few intra-session market swings overnight. On the more positive front US CPI came in a little...

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Currencies Calm Even As Pound Slumps On Labour Market Cooling

The greenback is edging higher against most of its advanced-economy counterparts, but traders remain cautious as they await tomorrow’s inflation release, Thursday’s long-dated Treasury auction, and any substantive breakthroughs in US-China trade negotiations. North American equity futures are little changed, yields are inching lower, and all major currency pairs – other than those involving the British pound – are stuck within incredibly-tight trading ranges as the data calendar slows and the Federal Reserve’s blackout period remains in effect, leaving markets to trade on shifts in broader sentiment. The pound is the lone exception to the sense of calm* after selling...

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Slow & steady

• Quiet start. US equities rose a bit overnight, while US bond yields & the USD eased. AUD & NZD near top of their respective multi-month ranges.• Macro trends. US jobs report released last Friday. Topline figures mask weakness under the hood. Indicators point to softer trends forming.• Event Radar. US/China trade talks taking place. In the US, inflation is a focus (Weds). Will the US CPI show tariff impacts on ‘goods’ prices? Global Trends It has been a quiet start to the new week across markets. US equities ended the overnight session a bit higher (S&P500 +0.1%), while US...

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