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GBP

01 Aug 2025

Dollar Tumbles After US Job Creation Collapses

The dollar is plunging after the US labour market hit a wall last month, reinforcing market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 73,000 jobs were added in July – representing an undershoot relative to the 105,000-consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. The previous two months were revised lower by a combined 260,000 roles, and private sector job creation flipped into negative territory. Total payroll gains have averaged 35,000 over the...

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31 Jul 2025

US jobs report in focus

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped back & USD ticked up overnight. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. JPY weaker after some BoJ comments.• US data. US jobs report out tonight. There has been a tendency for non-farm payrolls to exceed analyst forecasts the past few months. Will this continue?• AUD trends. The unfolding pull-back in the AUD isn’t unusual at this time of year. Late-July/August is typically a negative period for the AUD. Global Trends Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with US and European equities slipping back, bond yields consolidating, and the USD ticking up a bit further. The...

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30 Jul 2025

USD jolt

• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations looking for the RBA to cut rates in August & deliver more ‘relief’ later this year.• Seasonal trends. USD rebound & unfolding AUD weakness inline with seasonal patterns at this time of year. Risk of more to come. Global Trends A run of positive US centric events boosted US bond yields and the USD overnight. Firstly, the latest batch of US data extended the recent...

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29 Jul 2025

Currency Traders Turn Cautious As Event Risks Multiply

The US dollar is gaining as investors turn more cautious ahead of a raft of important economic data releases and central bank decisions through the remainder of the week. In a pattern familiar to aficionados of the ‘dollar smile’ theory, the greenback is climbing on continued outperformance in the US economy, a firming in rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, and a dimming growth outlook in other major economies. The Japanese yen and British pound are treading water against a resurgent Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar is coming under sustained selling pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision,...

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27 Jul 2025

Let’s make a deal

• Dealmaker. Trade optimism supported US equities & USD at end of last week. AUD & NZD drifted a little lower. EUR ticked higher this morning.• US/EU deal. Over weekend US/EU announced a 15% tariff framework. Deal is similar to US/Japan. More ‘stability’ but economic headwinds remain.• Event Radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). In the US this week earnings season continues, Q2 GDP & non-farm payrolls are out, & US Fed meets. Global Trends There was some relative outperformance in US markets at the end of last week. In contrast to modest falls across European/Asian equities on Friday the...

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