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GBP

16 Jul 2025

Fed Chair in the firing line

• Market jolt. Reports & denials about whether Chair Powell may be removed generated a burst of volatility. On net, US equities rose & USD weakened.• Fed changes. Fed Chair can’t be fired ‘without cause’. Disagreement over rates not enough. Potential change another example of US policy uncertainty.• AU jobs. Volatile Australian jobs report released today. Will it show cracks are widening? US retail sales & import prices out tonight. Global Trends A burst of headline driven volatility washed through markets overnight. Rather than being tariff related it stemmed from possible changes at the top of the US Federal Reserve....

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16 Jul 2025

Currencies Retrace After Subdued Wholesale Inflation Print

Bond yields and the dollar are giving back some of yesterday’s gains after US wholesale prices flatlined in June, helping assuage fears of a sharp acceleration in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—the core personal consumption expenditures index—when it is reported at the end of the month. The producer price index for final demand remained unchanged last month after rising 0.3 percent in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said this morning, below the 0.2-percent gain expected by economists. In the 12 months through June, the index advanced 2.3 percent after rising 2.7 percent in May, with the goods category—which...

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15 Jul 2025

USD revival tour

• US CPI. Uptick in US inflation has seen Fed rate cut expectations fall. USD firmer on the back of higher yields. AUD & NZD lose some ground.• US data flow. US producer prices out tonight. US import prices & retail sales due tomorrow. More signs of tariff impacts could give USD more support.• AU jobs. Australian jobs report also released tomorrow. The data has been volatile the past few months. Will unemployment rise in June? Global Trends US economic data was in focus overnight with the latest CPI inflation report showing more of an impact on ‘goods’ prices from...

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14 Jul 2025

Markets Keep Playing Chicken With Trump

Financial markets are beginning the week in a remarkably-calm state after the Trump administration spent the weekend escalating its trade war and stepping up its assault on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The dollar is trading on a slightly firmer footing after posting its best performance since February last week, Treasury yields are up incrementally, and equity futures are pointing to modest selling at the open. Both the euro and Mexican peso are trading only slightly below Friday’s closing levels, even after Trump threatened to impose 30-percent tariffs on imports from August 1 in a pair of early-Saturday missives. Traders...

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11 Jul 2025

Dollar Firms As Trump’s Letter-Writing Campaign Accelerates

The dollar looks set to end the week on a more supportive footing after Donald Trump redoubled his efforts to revive the forgotten art of letter writing, threatening to substantially raise tariffs on Canadian goods and warning that he would soon announce increases in levies on most other countries. Ten-year yields are little changed, equity futures are setting up for a softer session, and currencies like the euro and Mexican peso are retreating as investors brace for the next round of trade threats. The European Union will get a letter “today or tomorrow,” NBC quoted the president saying last night,...

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