GBP

• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY. US jobs report tonight. Signs the labour market is holding up could be USD supportive & drag on AUD.• AU election. Federal election takes place tomorrow. Polls pointing to a Labor win. We don’t expect the outcome to impact the RBA trajectory or the AUD. Global Trends Sentiment towards US assets continued to improve overnight with equities rising and the USD index appreciating. Stronger earnings...

• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs meant US GDP contracted in Q1. Forward indicators point to slower US domestic growth over 2025.• AU CPI. Q1 inflation a little higher than consensus but inline with RBA’s thinking. Underlying trends point to further RBA interest rate relief in May. Global Trends Despite a deluge of global economic data, particularly out of the US, and a few intra-session bursts of volatility the...

• US support. More tariff headlines. Sentiment improved with US equities & the USD rising. Bond yields declined. AUD & NZD slipped back.• AU inflation. Q1 CPI out today. Expected to show a further moderation in inflation supporting the case for another RBA rate cut in May.• US data. US Q1 GDP due tonight. Leading indicators point to a step down in growth. Will it be as bad as feared? Outcomes vs expectations matter. Global Trends US tariff related headlines continue to generate market gyrations with the overnight newsflow somewhat supporting demand for US financial assets. US equities rose with...