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GBP

13 Aug 2023

Inflation fears linger

• Inflation jolt. Stronger than expected US PPI data pushed US bond yields & the USD higher. US retail sales & FOMC meeting minutes due this week.• AUD struggles. Shaky sentiment & a firmer USD have weighed on the AUD. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded sub $0.65 ~3% of trading days.• Upcoming events. In addition to the US releases, the China data batch, RBNZ meeting, UK CPI, AU wages & AU jobs report are in focus this week. Equity markets remained on the backfoot on Friday as bond yields continued to edge higher following a run of stronger...

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11 Aug 2023

Rebounding producer prices lift the dollar

The dollar is set to end the week on a slightly stronger note after July’s producer price report solidified expectations for a continued hawkish bias from Federal Reserve policymakers – even as other indicators point toward a cooling in inflation pressures. Yields are modestly higher across the front end of the Treasury curve, equities are seeing outflows, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars – along with the Mexican peso – are inching lower against the greenback. North America US producer prices climbed more than expected in July, putting pressure on policymakers to avoid sending the “all clear”...

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08 Aug 2023

History doesn’t repeat, but…

“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes”. Based on our analysis of seasonal performance this statement seems to hold true for several currencies and other important financial markets. For the aficionados although we found no ‘stable statistical seasonality’, there seems to be a lot of ‘coincidence’ as a variety of things such as production and trade trends, financial year end related flows, asset allocation changes, and/or thinner liquidity conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer or Christmas period compound or counteract unfolding macroeconomic developments. Our Seasonality Heatmaps, provided at the bottom of this note, illustrate the average monthly performance of...

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07 Aug 2023

US CPI in focus this week

• Positive vibes. Risk markets have started the new week on firmer footing. US equities rose & the yield curve steepened. The USD consolidated.• Regional data. AUD has found some support. Today, Australian consumer & business sentiment is released, as is the China trade data.• US CPI. The latest US inflation read is in focus this week. Base-effects are no longer as favourable. A US inflation surprise could rattle market nerves. Risk sentiment started the new week on the front foot. US equities recovered some lost ground. The S&P500 rose 0.9% overnight, though this follows last week’s 2.3% fall (the...

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03 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

Higher yields. The upswing in long-end bond yields has continued. A combination of factors looks to be at play. FX markets were subdued overnight.Data flow. BoE hiked rates by another 25bps, but the tightening phase could be nearing the end. RBA Statement on Monetary Policy released today.US payrolls. US labour market data released tonight. Another solid jobs report could see pricing for another US Fed rate rise lift. The extension of the sell-off in global bonds has been a feature of markets. Long-end rates continue to lead the way with the US 10-year yield up another ~10bps. At ~4.18% the...

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