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GBP

26 Jan 2026

USD doldrums

• USD weaker. Falls in USD/JPY on back of intervention fears have weighed on USD. NZD also supported by NZ CPI. AUD near top of multi-year range.• Data flow. Q4 AU CPI due tomorrow, US Fed also meets (Thurs AEDT). AUD has had a strong run, but starting to look ‘stretched’ on momentum gauges. Global Trends A few of the recent market themes have remained in place over the past couple of sessions. Risk sentiment has remained positive with the major European and US equity markets edging higher overnight (S&P500 +0.5%). Elsewhere, bond yields ticked down a bit with the...

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26 Jan 2026

Dollar tumbles as political uncertainty soars

Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are again facing treacherous conditions as a blizzard of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks hits the headlines. After a weekend filled with shocks—including an actual snowstorm—the dollar is succumbing to broad-based selling pressure as policy uncertainty spikes, equity futures are pointing to renewed losses at the open, and precious metals are going parabolic as investors pile into alternative currencies and asset classes. Trading desks are on intervention watch after the New York Federal Reserve reportedly conducted “rate checks” for the Treasury on Friday, fuelling speculation of coordinated action between Tokyo and Washington. We’re seeing no evidence...

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21 Jan 2026

Let’s make a deal

• Improved tone. Reports of a Greenland deal ‘framework’ boosts sentiment. US equities rose. USD index a bit firmer. AUD outperforms. NZD edges higher.• Data flow. The volatile Australian jobs report due today. US PCE deflator out tonight. Tomorrow Q4 NZ CPI is released. BoJ also meets on Friday. Global Trends An improvement in risk sentiment overnight after US President Trump dialed down his aggression with regards to Greenland at the Davos World Economic Forum. After earlier stating the US wouldn’t use force to acquire Greenland, President Trump posted that following discussions with the Secretary General of NATO a “framework...

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21 Jan 2026

Selloff loses steam, traders remain on tenterhooks

After several days of turbulence, selling pressure is easing across financial markets, suggesting that investors expect US president Donald Trump to adopt a less confrontational approach when meeting in person with his counterparts at the World Economic Forum in Davos later today. The dollar is steadying against its peers, Treasury yields are stabilising near recent highs, and equity futures are pointing to a modest advance when North American markets open. Scarring will remain. For the second time in a year, markets have warned that the consequences of the president’s actions could weigh most heavily on the United States itself, not...

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19 Jan 2026

Structural USD pressures

• Geopolitical vol. Weekend US tariff announcements initially rattled markets. But the USD lost ground as yesterday rolled on. AUD & NZD higher.• US pressure points. US reliant on foreigners to fund its obligations. Reduced capital inflows could weigh on the USD over the medium-term. Global Trends There has been a modest market reaction to the weekend geopolitical news relating to Greenland. Indeed, for some the net swings may be somewhat surprising. For those catching up, over the weekend President Trump announced that eight countries (UK, Denmark, Germany, France, Sweden, Norway, Finland and The Netherlands) would be subject to a...

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