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Volatility falls into holiday-shortened week

Goldilocks is eating everybody’s porridge this morning, ignoring her mama’s warnings about ruining her appetite for Thanksgiving. With markets increasingly convinced the US economy is headed into a period of not-too-warm, not-too-cold growth, the dollar is trading at its lowest levels in more than two months, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the open. Implied volatility measures continue to trend lower across asset classes. Currency markets are exhibiting typical “dollar smile” dynamics as a narrowing in expected growth rates and a drop in US rate projections helps spark a recovery in outbound capital...

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Risk sentiment rebound

• Positive tone. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. Equities were firmer, oil & copper rose, & the USD lost ground. The AUD rebounded.• Holiday markets. It looks set to be a quieter week due to US Thanksgiving (Thurs), reduced US trade on Friday, & with few global events scheduled.• RBA speak. November meeting minutes are released (Tues), while Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues), & delivering a speech (Weds). Twists and turns continued on Friday with markets ending the week on a more positive note following Thursday’s negative tone. European equities rose (EuroStoxx50 +0.9%) and the US S&P500...

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Global bond rally continues, weighing on dollar

Easing expectations are growing across global financial markets after another round of softer-than-anticipated data led investors to pull implied rate cuts further forward in 2024. In the US, equity futures are firm, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is on the defensive after reports yesterday morning showed import prices sliding by more than economists forecast while the number of people submitting new claims for jobless benefits began to climb in earnest. Walmart, arguably a better consumer spending bellwether than any sentiment survey or economic forecaster, released a more pessimistic earnings outlook, saying it saw signs of restraint from households...

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Twists & turns

• Shaky sentiment. Growth concerns dampened risk sentiment. Bond yields slipped back, oil fell, & the AUD lost some ground after a strong few days.• Job trends. Signs the US labour market is cracking are increasing. In Australia employment positively surprised. Unemployment ticked up, but it is still low.• RBA rhetoric. Next week in addition to the meeting minutes (Tues), Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues) & giving a speech on the outlook (Weds). A slightly more negative tone across markets overnight with the run of soft US economic data supporting views growth momentum is slowing, and that...

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Diverging macro trends

• Yield rebound. US yields partially recovered. But equities added to their gains & the USD consolidated. The backdrop helped the AUD hold its ground.• Global data. US PPI inflation undershot expectations, & US retail sales weakened. By contrast, momentum in China is improving & Australian wages quickened.• AU jobs. AU employment report today. Labour force lottery may be nosier than usual thanks to school holidays & impacts from the voice referendum. Following yesterday’s US inflation driven drop US bond yields partially reversed course overnight. The US 2yr and 10yr rates rose 8-9bps, however it hasn’t been enough to recoup...

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