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EUR

08 Jan 2024

Hold the line

• FX consolidation. Quiet start to the week across FX. USD consolidated with AUD treading water. US CPI the major focal point this week (released Fri AEDT).• Mixed markets. A tech sector rally boosted US equities. Oil prices fell on softer demand signals, & bond yields lost some ground.• AU data. November retail sales due today. Black Friday sales expected to have boosted spending. Tomorrow the monthly CPI indicator is released. It has been a quiet start to the week for FX markets with the major currencies range bound over the past 24hrs. The USD index has held onto its...

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08 Jan 2024

Fed Pivot Hopes Stabilize, Leaving Currencies Unmoved

Equity markets are down ahead of the North American open after midair blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight hammered Boeing shares and lent new meaning to the term “window seat” – but risk appetite in other asset classes has been left largely unaffected. Fixed income and currency markets are relatively stable, with the dollar retreating only modestly from its early-year highs. Friday’s session was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Treasury yields and the dollar rallied when data was released showing US job creation and wage gains accelerating in December, but the move faded as traders parsed the details,...

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07 Jan 2024

A new year market reversal

• Market reversal. Late-2023 rally lost steam. Equities have given back ground over early-January, bond yields are higher, & the USD is firmer. AUD near ~$0.6725.• US jobs. Payrolls rose more than predicted in December. But stepping back there are signs conditions are loosening. Policy easing cycles will be in focus in 2024.• Event radar. Globally, the latest US CPI report is in focus (Fri AEDT). Locally, retail sales (Tues AEDT) & monthly inflation (Weds AEDT) are due. The late-2023 risk rally has lost puff over early 2024. Equities have given back ground over the first week of January (S&P500...

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05 Jan 2024

Dollar Climbs Ahead Of Payrolls

Rate-sensitive currencies and financial assets are retreating once again as overwrought monetary easing expectations undergo a forced unwind. Odds on a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting have fallen below 65 percent from over 90 percent in December, with this morning’s non-farm payrolls report expected to show the US job creation engine continuing to churn out new roles. Markets think 170,000 new jobs were added in December, even as wages cooled and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent. Data out yesterday showed continuing claims remaining low against an improved private sector hiring backdrop. Equity futures are softer,...

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04 Jan 2024

Market Hangover Eases

Having moved past the puking stage, traders have moved from the bed to the sofa, and are now ordering McDonald’s for delivery. Equity futures are setting up for modest gains at the North American open, Treasury yields are stabilizing, and pro cyclical units are climbing across currency markets as post-New Year positioning adjustments near completion. Minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s December meeting seemed consistent with three rate cuts this year, beginning later than March. Policymakers broadly agreed that easing could prove necessary this year, noting “the downside risks to the economy that would be associated with an overly restrictive...

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