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EUR

31 Jan 2024

Fed leans against near-term cuts

• Fed focus. No change from the Fed. Tone was more ‘neutral’ & while Chair Powell pointed to easing later this year he also watered down odds of a March cut.• Market vol. Another burst of volatility as markets digested the US data & adjusted near-term Fed expectations. AUD whipped around (now ~$0.6560).• AU CPI. Q4 inflation slowed more than forecast. Markets are pricing in a chance of a RBA rate cut as soon as next week. We don’t see this happening. Another burst of market volatility overnight with the latest Fed meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference center stage....

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30 Jan 2024

US Fed & Australian CPI in focus

• Consolidation. Better than expected US labour & Eurozone GDP data pushed up front-end bond yields. But FX moves were limited. AUD near $0.66.• AU inflation. Q4 CPI forecast to slow a little more than the RBA was thinking. But details matter. Attention will be on how services prices are evolving.• US Fed. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. Risks the Fed pushes back on near-term rate cut pricing appear high. This may give the USD a boost. Consolidation across markets overnight with sentiment waxing and waning as the data rolled in and with participants focused on tomorrow mornings...

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30 Jan 2024

Treasury Funding Rally Fades as Event Risks Loom

Sentiment is stabilizing in financial markets after a late-Monday surge that saw equity indices jump, Treasury yields fall, and risk-sensitive currencies outperform the dollar. The rally was touched off when the US Treasury said it would need to borrow less than previously anticipated, essentially soaking up less market liquidity than had been feared. According to an updated estimate, marketable borrowing should total $760 billion in the first quarter, unexpectedly undershooting the $816 billion projected at the end of October amid higher-than-anticipated starting cash balances and an improvement in “net fiscal flows” (likely higher tax revenues). Investors remain wary however –...

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29 Jan 2024

Upbeat vibes. Will it last?

• Positive tone. US equities higher as bond yields dip. News the US Treasury had reduced its borrowing estimates a factor. USD slips back, AUD firmer.• More vol? There is a long list of global data releases this week, with the US Fed also meeting. More bursts of short-term volatility likely.• AU data. Retail sales expected to decline as Black Friday boost unwinds. Q4 CPI (due tomorrow) likely to come in below the RBA’s thinking. It has been a relatively positive start to an action-packed week that includes US Fed and Bank of England meetings, key global releases such as...

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29 Jan 2024

Big Week Beckons, Keeping Markets Rangebound

Consolidative trading patterns are dominating markets this morning as participants prepare for a banger of a week. Tomorrow’s euro area gross domestic product, US consumer confidence, and job openings prints will help set the tone before Wednesday brings Canadian gross domestic product numbers, the Fed’s preferred wage cost measure, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and a Federal Reserve meeting. Updated euro area inflation data and the Bank of England’s latest decision will drop on Thursday ahead of Friday’s January’s non-farm payrolls report. The greenback is holding steady, defying a slight drop in yields, equity futures are stable, commodity prices are...

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