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EUR

Central banks & US jobs in focus this week

• Positive tone. US bond yields lost ground as more US data underwhelmed. This gave US stocks a boost on Friday & exerted pressure on the USD.• AUD moves. AUD edged higher. Domestic & offshore data might generate some intermittent AUD swings this week.• Event radar. Locally, Q1 GDP is due (Weds). Offshore, the BoC (Weds) & ECB (Thurs) could cut rates, while the US jobs report (Fri) will be a focal point. There was a more upbeat tone across markets at the end of last week. US and European equities rose on Friday. The S&P500 outperformed (+0.8%), although this...

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Slowing US Economy Contributes to Downbeat Mood

Bad news is bad news again. Stock markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar all declined yesterday when revised data showed the US economy expanding by less than initially estimated in the first quarter. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.3 annualised rate in the first three months of the year, sharply lower than the 1.6 percent originally calculated, and much slower than than the 3.4-percent pace hit in the last quarter of 2023. An inflation measure was also revised down to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent, and household spending, a critical driver of overall growth, was marked down to 2...

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US events in focus

• Shaky sentiment. US equities, yields & the USD a bit lower as Q1 US GDP was revised down. AUD rebounds up towards ~$0.6630 (its 1-month average)• US politics. Former President Trump found guilty. Market impact has (so far) been limited. More twists & turns in US politics look likely.• Data flow. China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, & US PCE deflator due today. Moderating US inflation & positive data elsewhere could weigh on the USD. There was a ‘risk off’ tone across most markets overnight, although in FX the moves didn’t follow the usual script. US equities slipped back (S&P500 -0.6%)...

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Hawkish Kashkari Comments Pour Cold Water on Markets

The dollar is advancing, yields are higher, and equity futures are in retreat as more overt hawkishness from a Fed official weighs on global risk sentiment. Markets tumbled yesterday morning when Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – doing his best to become the new Jim Bullard – suggested that further rate hikes remained a possibility. Speaking at a monetary policy forum in London, Kashkari said “the odds of us raising rates are quite low,” but “we could stay on hold for an indefinite period of time, and “I don’t think anyone has totally taken rate increases off the table”. Kashkari’s...

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Market Momentum Fades After US Long Weekend

The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are essentially unchanged, and equity futures are edging higher as US market participants return from the Memorial Day long weekend. Both the pound and euro are trading near the tops of their respective trading ranges as economic growth prospects brighten and expected yield trajectories edge higher. A series of data releases over the last month have provided evidence of a bottoming in both economies, with last week’s purchasing manager indices delivering the clearest view yet into the improvement in sentiment that could underpin growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. The European Central...

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