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EUR

18 Nov 2024

Noise vs Signal

• Partial bounce. Various ‘Trump trades’ backpedaled overnight with US yields & the USD a little lower & equities higher. AUD & NZD benefited.• RBA trends. Latest research from the RBA shows monetary policy is just as potent here as elsewhere. But the RBA didn’t raise rates as high.• AUD impulses. Higher for longer RBA should be AUD supportive against EUR, NZD, CAD, & CNH. This can help counteract positive USD vibes. The post US-election ‘Trump trades’ paused for breath with many of the underlying assets backpedaling a little at the start of the new week. There was no major...

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18 Nov 2024

Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Ebbs

The dollar is trading below last week’s one-year high this morning, with softness in equity markets helping limit marginal flows into the US financial system. The S&P 500 has given back more than half of its post-election gains on a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy – and some scepticism on the earnings front – ten-year Treasury yields are holding at around 4.46 percent, and risk appetite is ebbing across a range of asset classes. Data last week showed the US economy maintaining strong underlying momentum. Retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting that consumer demand is...

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17 Nov 2024

Signs of exhaustion?

• Choppy times. US equities weaker at the end of last week. Paring back of rate cut expectations a factor. USD consolidates with USD/JPY declining.• AUD trends. AUD hovering just above recent lows. Stronger for longer USD a medium-term AUD headwind. But AUD can edge up on the crosses.• Event radar. Global PMIs & CPI data from the UK, Japan, & Canada is due. ECB, US Fed, & RBA members are also due to speak this week. It was a choppy end to the week in markets on Friday with the US election outcome continuing to wash through and with...

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14 Nov 2024

USD powering ahead

• Policy trends. The pricing in of the Trump agenda & comments by Fed Chair Powell have seen US rate cut expectations pared back.• USD upswing. The adjustment in yield spreads in the US’ favour is supporting the USD. We think this trend may have further to go.• Data pulse. The monthly China activity data is due today. Tonight, focus will be on US retail sales given consumption is the economic engine room. The post US-election market gyrations were on show again overnight as participants continue to contemplate what a Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps...

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14 Nov 2024

Dollar Stages Comeback On Political Risks and Inflation Jitters

And it’s back. The dollar is extending its post-election rally this morning, gaining against all of its major counterparts – excepting the safe-haven Swiss franc – as markets continue to adjust to a future in which US policymakers maintain expansionary fiscal policies, raise barriers to trade, and fold the security umbrella that has underpinned global growth since the Second World War. A series of nomination announcements in the last two days – including former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, NATO-sceptic Tulsi Gabbard as director of National Intelligence, and firebrand congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General – have...

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