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EUR

18 Jun 2024

Liquidity Dissipates Ahead of US Holiday

It’s a little weird out there this morning: Ahead of the North American open, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pointing to further gains after both indices hit record closing highs in yesterday’s session, and investors are positioning for a rebound in US retail sales volumes, along with an increase in uncertainty levels as a series of Federal Reserve officials make public appearances before tomorrow’s holiday market closure. Amid thin liquidity conditions, Treasury yields are inching higher, the dollar is advancing, and most major currency pairs are oscillating within narrow trading ranges as participants move to the sidelines....

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17 Jun 2024

Will the RBA hold the line?

• Positive vibes. Concerns about the upcoming French election settled down. Equities rose, as did bond yields, with EUR also a little higher.• RBA today. No change from the RBA anticipated. It is likely to reiterate that it isn’t ruling anything in or out. The first RBA cut isn’t priced until mid-2025.• Global data. Yesterday’s China data batch was mixed. Tonight, US retail sales are released. A modest rebound is US consumer spending is predicted. A bit more of a positive tone in markets at the start of the new week. Concerns in Europe about the upcoming French parliamentary elections...

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17 Jun 2024

European Political Uncertainty Weakens Risk Appetite

Currency markets are struggling to gain traction as political turmoil weighs on the euro, sustaining safe haven flows into the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. Broader conditions look mixed, with North American equity futures little changed, bond yields ticking upward, crude prices nudging higher, and raw industrial commodity benchmarks slipping.  Ten-year French government bonds are still yielding roughly 80 basis points more than their German counterparts as uncertainty remains elevated ahead of the country’s two-round legislative election, which is set to conclude on July 7. Both Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the left-wing Popular Front parties have made substantial advances...

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16 Jun 2024

European political jitters

• European concerns. French political risks weighing on European assets. EUR near a ~1-month low. This, and a softer JPY, has supported the USD.• AUD cross-currents. Backdrop has seen AUD drift back. But it isn’t all one-way. AUD/EUR near the upper end of its 2024 range.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues). Offshore, in addition to French politics, markets focused on the China data, US retail sales, Fed speakers, BoE meeting, & PMIs. Nerves about the potential outcome of the upcoming French parliamentary elections (30 June & 7 July) continued to dampen sentiment in Europe at the end of last week....

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14 Jun 2024

Euro Crisis Flashbacks Hit Markets

Traders are in sell-first, ask-questions-later mode and the euro is coming under sustained pressure as negative rhetoric surrounding the upcoming French election heats up. The dollar and yen are climbing on safe-haven demand, Treasury yields are inching lower, and North American equity futures are looking subdued ahead of what could evolve into a risk-off day in broader financial markets. Franco-German bond spreads are blowing out after French finance minister Bruno le Maire warned a victory for left wing parties in the upcoming snap election could see the country exiting the European Union, triggering “economic collapse” and a “guaranteed downgrade” from...

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