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EUR

07 Oct 2024

USD revival

• Stronger USD. A positive US jobs report has seen US rate expectations reprice higher, supporting the USD. AUD has fallen to mid-September levels.• China reopening. Financial markets in mainland China reopen today after a holiday. This will be in focus, as will a briefing by its economic planners.• Local events. Consumer confidence, business conditions, RBA meeting minutes, & speech by RBA Dep. Governor Hauser also on the radar. Last Friday’s stronger than anticipated monthly US jobs report generated a market jolt. The robust job creation (non-farm payrolls rose 254,000 in August), positive revisions to history, dip in the unemployment...

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07 Oct 2024

Dollar Climbs as US Economy Bounces Off Runway

US yields are back to their highest levels since early August after Friday’s blockbuster non-farm payrolls report bolstered the likelihood of a “no landing” scenario in the economy. With investors growing more confident in an outlook in which job creation continues, growth remains robust, and inflation moderates more slowly, the Federal Reserve is now seen easing policy at a more gradual pace than expected only a week ago. Two- and ten-year interest rates holding near the 4-percent threshold, North American equity markets are setting up for a negative open, and the dollar is heading toward posting a sixth daily gain,...

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04 Oct 2024

Caution Grows as Payrolls Loom

Traders are signing pre-nuptial agreements with their positions this morning, avoiding exposure to downside risk ahead of a potentially-pivotal non-farm payrolls report. The dollar’s gains are slowing after the biggest weekly advance in six months, Treasury yields are steady, and North American equity futures are flat Uncertainty is high. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 150,000 jobs last month – a pace that would keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 percent – but forecasts are widely dispersed, from 70,000 on the low end to 225,000 on the high end. A surprise could radically reshape expectations for November’s Federal...

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03 Oct 2024

Middle East nerves

• Oil spike. Comments by US President Biden relating to the Middle East conflict pushed up oil. Shaky risk sentiment supported the USD. AUD a bit lower.• GBP weaker. Dovish BoE rhetoric weighed on GBP. AUD/GBP near levels last traded in mid-July. AUD/NZD higher ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.• US jobs. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Signs conditions are cooling may see the USD reverse course, but a lot will depend on geopolitics. Cautious trade across risk assets continued overnight. Nervousness about the situation in the Middle East remains with oil prices spiking ~5% higher on fears facilities in...

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02 Oct 2024

Middle East Turmoil Keeps Markets In Risk-Off Mode

Fear levels are subsiding across global financial markets after Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel yesterday without inflicting large numbers of casualties or causing significant damage to infrastructure. Oil prices remain elevated, Treasuries are in demand, and the dollar is holding its gains after the attack triggered a flight to safety – but trading ranges are narrowing, and price action could easily reverse if the geopolitical escalatory cycle shows signs of slowing in the days ahead. The threat of a retaliatory attack on Iranian oil infrastructure could keep prices somewhat elevated, but the risk of a sustained...

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