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EUR

Dollar’s Relentless Advance Continues

Demand for the dollar keeps climbing. With less than two weeks to go before the next Federal Reserve meeting and the US presidential election, global investors are piling into the greenback, cutting wagers on an aggressive easing cycle, and betting that the next administration’s policy mix will inflict serious damage on other major economies while generating higher levels of inflation at home. The DXY dollar index is up almost 4 percent from its late September low, options markets are pointing to a growing appetite for hedges against extreme moves around the polling date, and currencies that have strong trade links...

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US election on the horizon

• Treading water. US equities consolidated. Yields generally ticked up. EUR & JPY softer. AUD & NZD unwind some of the falls from yesterday.• US politics. US election less than 2 weeks away. Odds of a Trump/Republican win on the rise. We don’t think the USD is fully factoring this in.• Macro events. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 50bps tonight. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks in the morning. Global PMIs also due tomorrow. Most major markets have been in a bit of a holding pattern over the past few sessions given the lack of fresh top tier economic...

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Bond Turbulence Roils Currency Markets

Bond markets continue to puke like the cast of Family Guy after drinking Ipecac*. The ten-year US Treasury yield is holding above the 4.2-percent threshold this morning – up from 3.6 percent in mid-September – after a violent bond selloff during yesterday’s session, and a widely-watched measure of Treasury yield volatility – the MOVE index – is pushing higher as traders brace for more turbulence. Currency markets are reacting accordingly. The dollar is outperforming most of its major rivals, keeping the euro and pound stuck near recent lows as rate differentials tilt in America’s favour. The yield-sensitive yen is coming...

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Dollar Grinds Higher as Data Cadence Slows

The US dollar is trading with a consolidative bias this morning, advancing steadily against its major rivals ahead of this week’s thinly-populated data calendar. Treasury yields are up, North American equity futures are positioned for a healthy open, and oil prices are inching higher on a ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Markets are becoming more focused on the risks associated with the upcoming US presidential election. Option prices are beginning to ratchet up around the polling date, trade-sensitive currencies are softening, and ten-year Treasury yields are moving higher at a steady pace, with many market participants...

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US election is just around the corner

• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US stocks hit another record. USD drifted back a little. AUD hovering above its ~6-month average.• US election. A relative quiet calendar means more focus could be on the US election. Former Pres. Trump ahead in the polls in several ‘swing states’.• Event radar. Global PMIs due this week. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again. Several key central bankers scheduled to speak. A relatively quiet end to last week across markets. Equities remain firm with the US stockmarket extending its record run. The S&P500 (+0.4%), which hit yet another record high,...

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