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EUR

08 Apr 2025

Global risks don’t equate to a crisis

Last week’s ‘reciprocal tariff’ announcements by the US, and subsequent retaliation last Friday by China, has caused a fair degree of market upheaval. Given the broad-based and outsized tariffs imposed on goods shipped to the US, concerns about downside growth and upside inflation risks have spiked, and this has triggered an abrupt repricing in ‘complacent’ asset markets (chart 1). Equities and commodities have tumbled sharply over the past few sessions, as have growth-linked currencies such as the NZD and particularly the AUD which has plunged to levels last traded in the early dark days of COVID (now ~$0.6030). In our...

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07 Apr 2025

Volatility continues

• Market swings. Tariff headlines generated more vol. overnight. S&P500 traded in a ~8.5% range. AUD still tracking at levels last seen during COVID.• Negative vibes. Tariffs will slow US/global growth. But is the extreme market vol. justified? These types of moves only seen during a crisis.• AUD levels. Momentum/sentiment have been overpowering fundamentals. AUD in ‘rarefied air’ having only traded sub-$0.60 very infrequently since 2015. Global Trends Volatility has continued as markets adjust to the changing economic landscape stemming from recent tariff developments and react to new news. Negative sentiment dominated yesterday’s early trade as Friday’s US market turmoil...

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07 Apr 2025

Tariff Turmoil Engulfs Global Markets

Financial markets are caught in the grip of a deepening selloff after a string of Trump administration officials hit the Sunday talk-show circuit to defend the president’s tariff policies, forcing investors to further mark down US asset values and slash global growth forecasts. Equity futures are setting up for another 3-percent drop at the open, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding below the 4-percent threshold, and the safe-haven yen and euro are outperforming their advanced-economy peers as traders seek protection against the building storm. The administration’s messaging seems remarkably unified. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CBS “The army of...

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06 Apr 2025

Tariff tantrum

• Vol. shock. Growth concerns after China retaliated to US tariffs saw markets tumble again on Friday. AUD & NZD plunged, as did equities/commodities.• Extreme moves. The over 10% two-day drop in the S&P500 has only happened a handful of times. AUD’s one-day trading range also historically wide.• Event Radar. Tariff developments will continue to be in the drivers seat. Data wise, US CPI due this week, RBNZ meets, & RBA Gov. Bullock speaks. Global Trends Risk sentiment continues to deteriorate. Asset markets tumbled again on Friday as worries about a tariff induced ‘Trumpcession’ ramped up. Anxiety levels spiked further...

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04 Apr 2025

Bloodshed Continues As Markets Price US Downturn

A global market selloff triggered by Donald Trump’s effort to upend the global trading system is still underway this morning, with equity futures pointing to further losses after trillions of dollars in value was erased during yesterday’s session. Most major US and international indices are down more than 5 percent from Tuesday’s levels, benchmark ten-year Treasuries are yielding less than 3.9 percent for the first time since early October, and measures of implied volatility—expectations for more turbulence in the future—are holding near levels last hit during August’s unwind in the yen carry trade and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank...

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