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EUR

29 Apr 2025

Tariff impacts starting to show

• US support. More tariff headlines. Sentiment improved with US equities & the USD rising. Bond yields declined. AUD & NZD slipped back.• AU inflation. Q1 CPI out today. Expected to show a further moderation in inflation supporting the case for another RBA rate cut in May.• US data. US Q1 GDP due tonight. Leading indicators point to a step down in growth. Will it be as bad as feared? Outcomes vs expectations matter. Global Trends US tariff related headlines continue to generate market gyrations with the overnight newsflow somewhat supporting demand for US financial assets. US equities rose with...

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28 Apr 2025

Uneasy Calm Prevails Ahead of Action-Packed Week

Financial markets are trading sideways ahead of an information-dense trading week that will be packed with economic data releases and earnings reports – on top of the usual White House drama. The dollar is up incrementally against its major peers on hopes for a raft of symbolic trade deals, Treasury yields are holding steady, and futures on North American equity markets are edging marginally lower as investors brace for a deluge of negative guidance from US corporates;. Former central banker Mark Carney is well ahead in the polls going into today’s Canadian election, with many voters seeing him as the...

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24 Apr 2025

Recovery Falters As Trade War Ceasefire Hopes Are Dashed

A nascent relief rally in markets is stalling out as hopes for a thaw in the US-China trade war unravel amid contradictory signals from officials. The dollar is coming under selling pressure once again, Treasury yields are inching lower, and equity futures are cruising toward renewed losses at the North American open. Risk appetite improved enormously yesterday morning when the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was planning to reduce tariffs on China by roughly half — from 145 percent to somewhere between 50 and 65 percent — dovetailing with the president’s somewhat-conciliatory comments on Tuesday evening, when...

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23 Apr 2025

Relief Washes Over Markets As US Dials Down Rhetoric

The dollar is strengthening, yields are edging lower, and North American equity markets are barrelling toward a second day of gains after the Trump administration appeared to soften its stance on several policy fronts. Risk sentiment improved early in yesterday’s session on signs that the administration intends to retreat from its maximalist positions on China. In a closed-door meeting with investors, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said “No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable at 145 and 125 percent” tariffs, “So, I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. And I think...

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22 Apr 2025

Selling Moderates as Assault on Fed Independence Slows

The greenback is finding its footing once again after selling pressure intensified during yesterday’s session when President Trump doubled down on his attacks against Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. In a post on social media that landed after multiple firing threats, Trump demanded that the central bank deliver “pre-emptive” rate cuts, saying inflation is trending “nicely downward” and “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW”. Equity futures are setting up for a bounce at the open, yield curves are flattening, and currencies like the euro, pound, yen, and...

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