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EUR

Selloff loses steam, traders remain on tenterhooks

After several days of turbulence, selling pressure is easing across financial markets, suggesting that investors expect US president Donald Trump to adopt a less confrontational approach when meeting in person with his counterparts at the World Economic Forum in Davos later today. The dollar is steadying against its peers, Treasury yields are stabilising near recent highs, and equity futures are pointing to a modest advance when North American markets open. Scarring will remain. For the second time in a year, markets have warned that the consequences of the president’s actions could weigh most heavily on the United States itself, not...

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‘Sell America’ trade intensifies

Equity futures, Treasuries, and the dollar are down for a second day as investors shun US assets in the aftermath of the weekend’s Greenland-related tariff threats from Donald Trump, and selling in Japanese bond markets puts upward pressure on global yields. On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose import taxes on goods from European countries until they allow the US to buy the Danish territory, beginning with a 10-percent levy on February 1 and increasing to 25-percent on June 1. He then sent a message to Norway’s Prime Minister saying that he no longer feels obliged to “think purely of Peace”...

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Structural USD pressures

• Geopolitical vol. Weekend US tariff announcements initially rattled markets. But the USD lost ground as yesterday rolled on. AUD & NZD higher.• US pressure points. US reliant on foreigners to fund its obligations. Reduced capital inflows could weigh on the USD over the medium-term. Global Trends There has been a modest market reaction to the weekend geopolitical news relating to Greenland. Indeed, for some the net swings may be somewhat surprising. For those catching up, over the weekend President Trump announced that eight countries (UK, Denmark, Germany, France, Sweden, Norway, Finland and The Netherlands) would be subject to a...

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Dollar tumbles as Trump renews tariff threats

Good morning. The dollar is back on the defensive as investors digest weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who threatened tariffs on European countries that do not support his push to acquire Greenland and later sent a letter to foreign embassies linking the move to Norway’s refusal to award him the Nobel Peace Prize. US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday and liquidity conditions are thin, but the greenback is trading roughly a quarter-percent lower against a basket of its rivals, and the euro is climbing even as European leaders prepare a package of retaliatory measures. The...

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Swings & roundabouts

• Positive tone. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rebounded. Bond yields rose. Oil fell. AUD ticked up thanks to some relative outperformance.• Data flow. Limited releases today. Next week things pick up with China GDP (Mon), AU jobs (Thurs), PMIs (Fri), BoJ (Fri), & US PCE (Fri) due. Global Trends Geopolitical related headlines generated a few minor bursts of volatility across a couple of asset classes the last few days. However, as our chart below shows, cross-asset volatility remains below average with the headline noise not having a lasting impact. Indeed, this was the case once again with the latest...

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