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EUR

Dollar Rally Eases on Waller Comments, Euro Remains Under Pressure

The dollar is trading with a softer bias this morning after Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that he would support cutting rates at the central bank’s next meeting, helping put pressure on the front end of the US yield curve. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are inching higher as traders double down on bets that Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats will come to naught, the Japanese yen is climbing on a narrowing in rate differentials, and the pound is trying to build the momentum to break back into the high 1.20’s against the greenback. “At present, I lean toward...

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French politics rattles FX markets

• Mixed markets. Equities push higher while French political issues weighed on the EUR. This supported the USD. AUD & NZD lost ground.• US data. ISM manufacturing better than expected. US job openings due tonight. Non-farm payrolls released on Friday night.• AU events. October retail sales stronger than anticipated. A promising sign for Q4. Q3 GDP released on Wednesday. RBA meets next week. There has been a mixed performance across asset markets and regions at the start of the new month. Equities have continued to power along with strength in the tech-sector underpinning the broader US market which hit another...

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Dollar Rallies Back, Euro Tumbles

The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme is back to driving markets this morning, helping the dollar snap a three-day losing streak against most of its rivals. The euro is coming under pressure as the French government struggles to pass a budget, the Swiss franc is advancing amid stronger safe-haven flows, and major high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – are all off around half a percentage point. The dollar’s outperformance this year can be seen clearly in the chart below, which shows trade-weighted values through November 27. After softening in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, the currency...

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US jobs in the spotlight this week

• Positive tone. A solid end to November with US & European equities rising. Bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD edged a bit higher.• JPY revival. JPY rebound has weighed on USD/JPY & the USD. Narrowing yield spreads as the BoJ hikes & others cut rates is JPY supportive.• Event radar. Locally, retail sales out today & GDP is on Weds. US Fed Chair Powell speaks this week & the latest US jobs figures are due. Markets ended last week, and November, on a positive note. In the holiday shortened US session equities rose with the S&P500 (+0.6%) touching another...

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Dollar Softens, Canadian Growth Remains Lacklustre

Amid turbulent month-end flows and a serious tryptophan hangover, the dollar is retreating and volatility expectations are falling as investors bet that Donald Trump’s trade bite won’t match his bark. The greenback looks headed toward its biggest weekly loss in three months after several relatively-moderate cabinet picks – most notably Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary – helped assuage market fears of a more extremist policy mix in the president’s second term, lowering long-term yields and reducing the risk discount embedded in other major currencies. Equity futures are pointing toward further gains in today’s holiday-shortened session, the ten-year Treasury yield is...

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