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EUR

06 Feb 2023

Trend Reversal Rumbles Across Currency Markets

The dollar is continuing its ascent and global markets are in risk-off mode as traders unwind bets on easier monetary policy in the aftermath of Friday’s juggernaut jobs report. Futures are down sharply, Treasury yields are up, the greenback is trading near a three week high, and currencies elsewhere are on the defensive after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 517,000 jobs to payrolls in January, while revising previous months up. Friday’s data looks too good to be true, with seasonal adjustment issues likely playing a role – but it nonetheless showed that underlying momentum in the...

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27 Jan 2023

Volatility Falls Ahead of Central Bank-Packed Trading Week

Trading activity in global financial markets remains muted ahead of the last US inflation print to land before next week’s central bank meetings. With equity futures inching down and Treasury yields holding flat, the dollar is effectively unchanged against its significant counterparts, with the inflation-propelled Australian dollar looking like the only major to eke out serious gains over the week. The US economy grew substantially faster than forecast in the final quarter of 2022, but odds on a smaller rate increase at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting remained unchanged, and markets continued to brace for a recession later this year....

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26 Jan 2023

Risk Appetite Improves as Markets Ignore Signs of Slowing Economic Momentum

Hopes for a soft landing in the US economy are slowly fading, but strong corporate earnings are keeping asset prices elevated for now. North American equity futures are pointing to a modestly stronger open after a series of better-than-expected earnings releases, and the trade-weighted greenback is up slightly as flows into US markets offset concerns about the longer-term outlook. We’re reminded of the old joke about the optimist who jumped off the Empire State Building – as he was falling, someone asked, “How’s it going?”, and he responded:“So far, so good!” Yields on both sides of the 49th Parallel remain...

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25 Jan 2023

Trading Remains Subdued as News Flow Slows to a Trickle

Foreign exchange markets are seemingly weighed down by a heavy blanket of snow this morning, with trading ranges remaining remarkably tight ahead of next week’s central bank meetings. The greenback is up microscopically, and the Australian dollar is the only major with material gains, having risen sharply after the latest inflation numbers surprised to the upside. Equity futures are tumbling ahead of the North American open, with weak earnings guidance from Microsoft helping to keep overall risk sentiment restrained. The euro remains well-supported after the latest purchasing manager survey data suggested that economic fortunes are set to diverge on either...

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24 Jan 2023

Dollar Selling Abates as Policy Decisions Loom

The greenback is bleeding less profusely this morning as traders cut risk ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank meetings. Equity futures are weaker, Treasury yields are down, and the Japanese yen is the only major currency posting gains relative to the dollar for the session. European recession risks eased somewhat in January as the S&P Global flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.2, breaking back above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. A warmer-than-expected winter, improving supply chain conditions, and large amounts of fiscal stimulus have helped the bloc’s largest...

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