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Currency Volatility Snaps Higher on Suisse Miss

World markets are coming under renewed selling pressure this morningas signs of a banking contagion spread to Europe. Equity futures are setting up for drastic losses at the open, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is pushing higher against its G10 rivals. Oil prices are tumbling, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark slipping below $70 for the first time since September 2021.  A fragile sense of calm was broken when shares in Credit Suisse Group AG plunged and credit default swap prices shot up after it said “material weaknesses” had been found in its reporting. Selling worsened when the head...

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Past the worst?

• Risk sentiment improves. Equites and bond yields bounced back overnight, but the moves in FX have been more contained.• US inflation. Core inflation remains stubbornly high. Services prices remain the key driver. This points to further Fed rate hikes and a USD rebound.• AUD data flow. China data is released today. Tomorrow, the Australian labour force report is due. Positive data may give the AUD a short-term boost. After a few turbulent days the tone across markets was more positive overnight, though reports late in the session that a Russian fighter jet collided with a US drone did see...

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Buckle up, volatility should continue

Markets have hit an air pocket, with bonds in particular experiencing some extreme moves over recent days in reaction to the unfolding US regional banking situation. In our mind, the rather forceful emergency support measures unveiled yesterday by the US FDIC, Fed, and Treasury should help contain broader financial contagion risks. That said, while this should be somewhat of a short-term circuit breaker, and suggests that the scale and speed of the adjustment in some markets like bonds and the USD may be overdone, it doesn’t necessarily mean all is right in the world and that further market ructions shouldn’t...

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Radical Rate Repricing

• Bond yield plunge. Extreme moves in bonds with US yields falling sharply (2yr down another ~60bps) as the Fed rate outlook is radically repriced.• Weaker USD. The adjustment has weighed on the USD. AUD is higher, though it is little changed on the crosses, illustrating how USD-centric it has been.• US CPI. Markets may have moved too far when it comes to Fed expectations. US CPI released tonight, another strong result could generate more volatility. The turmoil stemming from the US regional banking issues has continued despite efforts from authorities to try and contain contagion and macroeconomic risks. In...

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Everything, Everywhere, All At Once

Much like last night’s Oscar winner, the financial markets appear to be exploring every possibility in the multiverse this morning. Major equity indices are oscillating between gains and losses, global bond yields are plummeting, and currency markets are exhibiting flight-to-safety dynamics after authorities stepped in to unwind Silicon Valley Bank and backstop deposits across a US banking sector that is experiencing losses on its long-dated bond holdings. In a joint statement released before Asian trading began, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said that depositors in the collapsed institution would have access to their funds from today, with...

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