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EUR

14 Feb 2025

Dollar Retreats as ‘Tariff Exhaustion’ Kicks In, and Retail Sales Slump

The dollar is trading near a two-month low this morning after Donald Trump delivered a long-threatened “reciprocal” tariff plan that was distinctly short on tradeable detail. In an extensively-teased announcement from the Oval Office, the president signed a memo directing federal agencies to investigate raising import taxes on shipments from countries with “unfair” economic barriers in place against US exports—things like tariffs, regulations, subsidies, manipulated exchange rates, and domestic value-added taxes—but stopped short of imposing any deadlines or naming the product categories and countries that could be targeted. “On trade, I have decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will...

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13 Feb 2025

Upbeat end to the week

• Positive vibes. Equities rise, yields fall. USD loses ground. Favourable US PPI & geopolitical/tariff news support sentiment. AUD & NZD lift.• Tariff news. ‘Reciprocal’ US tariffs in the pipeline. Likely to be formally announced by 1 April. Markets breathe a short-term sigh of relief.• Macro events. US retail sales due tonight. Next week the RBA & RBNZ meet. Rate cuts expected by both, though the RBNZ should be more aggressive. Global Trends There were a few more pockets of headline-driven volatility overnight. But on balance, risk sentiment has been positive with favourable data and geopolitical developments coming through. Equities...

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13 Feb 2025

Sticky Producer Price Inflation Leaves Markets Largely Unmoved

Input price inflation rose at faster pace than anticipated in the United States last month, but details under the hood indicated a moderation in some services categories, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator could slow in month-over-month terms when it is reported next week. Producer prices for final demand climbed 0.4 percent in January relative to the prior month, topping forecasts for a 0.3 percent increase, and rising 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, but airline fares and medical care costs declined, putting pressure on the key components that feed through into the core personal consumption expenditures index....

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12 Feb 2025

Push pull market forces

• Headline swings. US CPI hotter than expected. Interest rate markets adjust. Jump up in the USD didn’t last as positive geopolitical news hit the wires.• FX moves. EUR rebounded on reports talks to end the Ukraine war may take place. USD/JPY rose. AUD & NZD recovered lost intra-day ground.• Volatility. We think more short-term bursts of headline driven FX volatility are likely as the macro & geopolitical issues play out. Global Trends There was another burst of volatility across markets overnight, particularly in FX, as sentiment and the USD were pushed and pulled by US economic developments and geopolitical...

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12 Feb 2025

Inflation Heats Up, Clobbering Fed Bets

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, bolstering the case for a cautious approach to easing from the Federal Reserve—and raising the odds on a rate hike at some point this year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline all-items consumer price index climbed 3.0 percent year-over-year in January, accelerating slightly from the 2.9 percent pace set in December, and rose 0.5 percent from the previous month. The core measure—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in January from the same period last year, and rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, marking...

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