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EUR

02 Feb 2025

Shots fired in the trade war

• Tariff news. US announced tariffs against Canada, Mexico, & China. This had been in the pipeline for a while. Canada also unveiled retaliatory action.• USD stronger. The news has boosted the USD this morning. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. Uncertainty & macro headwinds are usually USD supportive.• Event Radar. Tariff news will be in the drivers seat. Data-wise, jobs reports are out in NZ, Canada & the US this week. Several US Fed members also speak. Global Trends After much talk the first actual shots were fired in the US led Trump 2.0 trade war over the weekend....

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30 Jan 2025

Tariff volatility

• Tariff threat. President Trump rattled FX markets this morning after reiterating tariffs could be imposed on Canada & Mexico on Saturday. USD rose.• Macro pulse. Overnight the data showed that US growth outpaced the Eurozone. ECB cut rates again. More moves likely to revive activity.• AUD vol. The Trump comments exerted downward pressure on the AUD. More headline driven volatility likely over the period ahead. Global Trends The economic data flow picked up overnight with the relative outperformance of the US once again on show with tariff-related comments by US President Trump rattling a few FX market nerves this...

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30 Jan 2025

Currencies Stabilise As Threats (Seemingly) Subside

Currency markets are steadying this morning after several central bank decisions passed without triggering undue volatility, and President Donald Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary suggested that tariffs might not be implemented against Canada and Mexico. In comments during a confirmation hearing yesterday, Howard Lutnick* noted the import taxes were designed to force “action from Mexico and action from Canada,” and said “As far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff. And if they don’t, then there will be”. The US economy expanded as expected in the fourth quarter of last...

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29 Jan 2025

Inflation & the AUD

• Central banks. Another rate cut by the BoC & Riksbank, although forward guidance was removed. US Fed kept rates steady & signaled patience.• Modest moves. Mixed performance across equities. Bond yields ticked up. USD tread water. ECB expected to cut rates tonight. US GDP also released.• AU CPI. Core inflation slowed bolstering expectations for a February RBA rate cut. A rates recalibration is looming, but is the low AUD already factoring this in? Global Trends There were few data releases overnight and no new news regarding President Trump’s policy agenda, particularly around tariffs. Rather, central banks were in the...

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29 Jan 2025

Price Action Slows in Run-Up to Rate Decisions

The dollar is advancing against most of its peers and financial markets are broadly holding steady ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. The world’s most powerful central bank is almost-universally expected to stay on hold—and the accompanying statement should remain essentially unchanged—but Chair Jerome Powell’s words in the post-decision press conference will be closely scrutinised for hints as to whether a rate cut could come at the March meeting. Yields have retreated from their recent highs, driven by a modest softening in incoming survey data, market turmoil, relatively-dovish rhetoric from Fed officials, and a rush among investors to top-tick...

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