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EUR

14 Jun 2023

Risk appetites improve as Fed meeting looms

Risk-sensitive currencies are on the march and the dollar is retreating after US inflation cooled in May, reducing the impetus for tighter monetary policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday said headline prices climbed 4 percent in the year through May, down sharply from 4.9 percent in April and well below the 9.1-percent peak reached last June. The so-called “supercore” measure – which excludes highly-volatile food, energy, goods, and housing prices – climbed just 0.24 percent month over month, broadly in line with long-term pre-pandemic averages. Markets are firmly positioned for a “hawkish hold” in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting....

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13 Jun 2023

Will the US Fed ‘skip’ or surprise?

• Higher yields. Markets reprice BoE rate hike expectations after UK wage growth quickens. This supported GBP, and pushed AUD/GBP a bit lower.• US inflation. Headline CPI ‘mechanically’ falls, while core inflation is stickier. Tomorrows Fed meeting in focus. A ‘hawkish skip’ looks most likely.• AUD cross currents. AUD mixed overnight. The lift in USD/CNH remains a AUD headwind. A ‘hawkish’ Fed could see the AUD dip lower. There has been quite a bit of news to digest, with some developments, particularly in the UK, generating sharp market reactions. On net, US and European equities added to recent gains (S&P500...

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12 Jun 2023

An action packed week ahead

• Positive vibes. Equities higher. The risk backdrop & repricing in RBA expectations has pushed the AUD towards the top of its multi-month range.• Inflation focus. US CPI due tonight. Base-effects should drag down annual headline inflation. But will core inflation hold up and rattle market nerves?• Event risk. There are several events on Thursday with the US FOMC decision, AU jobs report, China data batch, ECB meeting, and US retail sales on the schedule. A mixed performance across markets overnight, though the underlying tone was generally positive at the start of an action-packed week. US and European equities rose,...

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12 Jun 2023

Trading Ranges Compress Ahead of Decisive Week

Currency traders are battening the hatches ahead of a week in which the world’s three most powerful central banks will deliver rate decisions and a series of critical data updates will be published, potentially shaping the monetary policy outlook.  Economists think tomorrow’s data will show US headline inflation slowing to 4.1 percent year-over-year in May, down from 4.9 percent in the prior month as gas prices continue their decline.Underlying consumer prices should also cool, with ebbing goods demand and an easing in rental costs driving the month-over-month change in the core measure down to 0.3 percent from April’s 0.4 percent. After a...

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09 Jun 2023

Canadian Dollar Drops as Traders Question Rate Hike Sustainability

The Canadian dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing after Statistics Canada reported the first loss of jobs in nine months, suggesting that the economy was beginning to struggle with higher borrowing costs ahead of this week’s rate hike. The country lost 17,300 jobs in May and the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2 percent from 5.0 percent as the part-time, self-employed, and services sector categories moved into contraction. The number of hours worked (sometimes a better read of underlying conditions) fell 0.4 percent month-over-month, and wages grew 5.1 percent year-over-year, down from 5.2 percent in the prior month. We think the...

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