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EUR

13 Jul 2023

Exchange rate gains could prove fragile.

We think the euro could continue to appreciate against the dollar into the early autumn on expectations for a divergence in policy between the European Central Bank and its US counterpart, but we hold weaker-than-consensus views on the currency’s longer-term performance. Until economic surprise indices turn in the euro area’s favour and the Federal Reserve ends its tightening cycle in a decisive manner, we suspect the exchange rate will have difficulty sustaining levels above the 1.15 threshold. Economic Surprise Indices

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13 Jul 2023

Softer US data triggers capitulation across currency markets

The dollar is in retreat and currency markets are undergoing a broad-based realignment a day after data was released showing that policymakers might be close to pulling off an “immaculate disinflation” – in which price growth slows without triggering a big rise in unemployment. According to the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline inflation fell to 3 percent year-over-year and core price growth slipped to 4.8 percent in June. Perhaps more importantly, core consumer prices climbed at an annualized 1.9 percent month-over-month pace, with core goods turning negative and the core services category growing at its slowest pace in...

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11 Jul 2023

US CPI in focus

• Softer USD. Strong UK wages has bolstered BoE rate hike expectations, supporting GBP. The JPY has also continued to recover lost ground.• US inflation. Large base-effects & some other drivers point to a sizeable step down in US CPI. If realised, this could exert more pressure on the USD.• AUD events. Ahead of the US CPI, RBA Governor Lowe speaks & the RBNZ policy decision is announced. No change by the RBNZ is expected. Mixed fortunes across markets, with focus still very much on tonight’s US CPI report (10:30pm AEST). Offshore equity indices edged higher (US S&P500 and EuroStoxx50...

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10 Jul 2023

China has a different inflation problem

• Mixed markets. US yields & the USD Index lower. But AUD underperforms as concerns about China’s economic trajectory remain in place.• China deflation risks. China CPI/PPI inflation underwhelmed, another sign the post-COVID recovery is faltering. Measures are needed to reinvigorate demand.• US inflation. US CPI (released Weds night AEST) is a focal point. Base-effects point to a further step down in inflation. This could exert more pressure on the USD. A relatively quiet start to the new week across markets. Overnight, European and US equities posted modest gains (S&P500 +0.2%), oil prices gave back some ground (WTI crude -0.9%),...

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09 Jul 2023

Payrolls weigh on the USD

• US payrolls. Non-farm payrolls came in lower than expected. But other detail in the report shows that the US labour market is still tight.• Softer USD. The USD weakened. US CPI in focus this week. Base-effects point to a further step down in inflation. This could exert more pressure on the USD.• AUD rebound. AUD has bounced back. In addition to the US CPI, RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Wednesday. We think the AUD may recover more ground. A tumultuous week for markets was brought to a close by the release of the US labour market report on Friday....

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