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EUR

15 Jun 2023

AUD: break-out or bull-trap?

After a rather torrid May, the AUD has sprung back to life over the past few weeks. At ~$0.6820 the AUD is around the top of its ~4-month range. The AUD has also outperformed on the crosses. AUD/EUR is near its highest level since mid-March, AUD/GBP has moved above its 50-day moving average (~0.5341), diverging interest rate and macro trends have propelled AUD/NZD over ~1.10 for the first time since late-February, AUD/CNH has touched a ~2-year high, and AUD/JPY is north of ~96 (heights it hasn’t been at since last September). There has been raft of important economic events and...

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14 Jun 2023

Fed’s ‘hawkish’ skip

• US Fed. Rates kept on hold, but the Fed’s message was ‘hawkish’. Fed is forecasting another ~50bps of hikes this year. Market pricing looks too low.• Intra-day volatility. Markets whipped around by the Fed decision. US retail sales & jobless claims tonight. Data could influence Fed expectations & the USD.• AUD events. Australian labour force & China activity data released today. ECB policy meeting is tonight with another 25bp rate hike expected. Markets whipped around overnight, with the US Fed policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference in focus. As was broadly expected, after hiking interest rates aggressively over...

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14 Jun 2023

Risk appetites improve as Fed meeting looms

Risk-sensitive currencies are on the march and the dollar is retreating after US inflation cooled in May, reducing the impetus for tighter monetary policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday said headline prices climbed 4 percent in the year through May, down sharply from 4.9 percent in April and well below the 9.1-percent peak reached last June. The so-called “supercore” measure – which excludes highly-volatile food, energy, goods, and housing prices – climbed just 0.24 percent month over month, broadly in line with long-term pre-pandemic averages. Markets are firmly positioned for a “hawkish hold” in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting....

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13 Jun 2023

Will the US Fed ‘skip’ or surprise?

• Higher yields. Markets reprice BoE rate hike expectations after UK wage growth quickens. This supported GBP, and pushed AUD/GBP a bit lower.• US inflation. Headline CPI ‘mechanically’ falls, while core inflation is stickier. Tomorrows Fed meeting in focus. A ‘hawkish skip’ looks most likely.• AUD cross currents. AUD mixed overnight. The lift in USD/CNH remains a AUD headwind. A ‘hawkish’ Fed could see the AUD dip lower. There has been quite a bit of news to digest, with some developments, particularly in the UK, generating sharp market reactions. On net, US and European equities added to recent gains (S&P500...

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12 Jun 2023

An action packed week ahead

• Positive vibes. Equities higher. The risk backdrop & repricing in RBA expectations has pushed the AUD towards the top of its multi-month range.• Inflation focus. US CPI due tonight. Base-effects should drag down annual headline inflation. But will core inflation hold up and rattle market nerves?• Event risk. There are several events on Thursday with the US FOMC decision, AU jobs report, China data batch, ECB meeting, and US retail sales on the schedule. A mixed performance across markets overnight, though the underlying tone was generally positive at the start of an action-packed week. US and European equities rose,...

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