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EUR

05 Sep 2023

Risk appetite fades on China slowdown fears

The US dollar is stronger against all its major counterparts this morning, building on August’s 1.7-percent gain as weak Chinese data weighs on global risk appetite. US equity futures are setting up for a modestly-weaker open and Treasury yields are up across the curve, helping keep the trade-weighted greenback near six-month highs. Global commodity prices are under pressure, the euro is softer, and both the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan pools are trading below 7.30 to the dollar after the private-sector Caixin services purchasing manager index dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July (the 50 level marks the...

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04 Sep 2023

All quiet ahead of the RBA

• US holidays. Limited market moves with the US on holiday. The major currencies are little changed from where they ended last week.• RBA today. No change in rates expected at Governor Lowe’s last meeting at the helm. But a mild conditional tightening bias is likely to be maintained.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released tomorrow. A large inventory drawdown suggests there is a risk of a negative print. More inputs are released today. With the US on holiday and no major data or events of note elsewhere it has been a quiet start to the week for markets. European equities...

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03 Sep 2023

USD volatility

• US data. Payrolls were a little stronger than expected, but greater labour supply pushed up unemployment. Manufacturing ISM a bit better than anticipated.• Market volatility. US yields & the USD were whipped around by the US data. AUD spiked initially, but then reversed course as the USD rebounded.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA meeting (Tues), GDP (Weds) & speech by Gov. Lowe (Thurs) are due. Offshore, China trade data & US services ISM are in focus. Markets were whipped around by the US economic data on Friday night with the latest jobs report in the spotlight. The data kept...

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01 Sep 2023

Markets leap higher on weakening payrolls growth

Goldilocks is enjoying her just-right porridge this morning after a US payrolls report pointed to a gradual easing in labour market conditions, supporting expectations for an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. North America The US economy added 187,000 new non-farm jobs last month, marking the third consecutive month of gains below 200,000, and helping bolster bets on an imminent end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate jumped off historic lows to 3.8 percent in August, up from 3.5 percent in the previous month’s print (but we note that...

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31 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Mixed markets. The USD clawed back ground against the softer EUR & GBP. AUD/USD held up with AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP rising.• China pulse. Forward components point to a pick up in the manufacturing PMI. Authorities also continue to pull on policy support levers.• US payrolls. US labour market in focus tonight. We think there could be an uneven reaction with a downside surprise likely to generate a larger (negative) jolt on the USD. Markets consolidated overnight with the economic data generally inline with expectations, and with participants having one-eye on tonight’s US labour market report (10:30pm AEST). Equities drifted...

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