EUR

The dollar is trading below levels that prevailed ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday appearance at Jackson Hole. Although markets (briefly) appeared to think otherwise, we read the speech as coming in slightly more dovish than expectations, with repeated use of the phrase “proceed carefully” helping put the central bank on a data-dependent footing into the autumn months. Most major equity indices are up and Treasury yields are slightly lower on an essentially-unchanged monetary policy outlook for the US and the euro area. Commodity-linked currencies are recovering from a short-lived rally that unfolded when China launched half-hearted attempts...

Financial markets are in stasis this morning ahead of a series of monetary policy speeches at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Treasury yields are up slightly and equity futures are licking their wounds after yesterday’s buy-on-rumour, sell-on-news dynamic in Nvidia shares saw the major indexes lose altitude. Trade-weighted measures of the dollar are holding near three-month highs as market participants bet Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will deliver a relatively-hawkish “higher for longer” message, followed by a more dovishly-cautious one from the European Central Bank’s Christine Lagarde. Both the euro and pound are oscillating around key technical levels, and modest...