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EUR

24 Sep 2025

Inflation & the RBA

• Market swings. US equities dipped again, while US yields & USD rose. NZD remains on backfoot. AUD unwound yesterday’s CPI induced gains.• AU CPI. Inflation hotter than expected in August. Data raises doubts about further RBA rate cuts. Relative policy trends can be AUD supportive. Global Trends There were a few more market wobbles overnight with US equities declining modestly for the second straight session (S&P500 -0.3%), US bond yields ticking up ~2-4bps across the curve, and the USD clawing back ground. The EUR (the major USD alternative) slipped down towards ~$1.1740 (the lower end of its ~2-week range),...

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24 Sep 2025

FX Momentum Dies As Fed Officials Outline Dual-Sided Risks

After most Federal Reserve officials—with the notable exception of Stephen Miran—sounded a consistently-cautious and incrementally-hawkish tone in appearances during the early part of the week, the US dollar is staging a recovery against its major peers—including the euro, pound, yen, and Canadian dollar—Treasury yields are moving sideways, and North American equity futures are setting up for small gains at the open. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell didn’t rock any market boats in yesterday’s economic outlook speech. Speaking in Providence, Rhode Island, he noted that both ends of the central bank’s dual inflation and employment mandate are moving in the wrong...

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23 Sep 2025

Steady as she goes

• FX consolidation. In contrast to the dip in US equities & yields the USD tread water. AUD near ~$0.66. Fed Chair Powell notes the “challenging situation”.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator due today. Base effects & leading indicators point to a pick up in inflation. RBA looks set to remain on a different path to its peers. Global Trends Steady as she goes, at least in FX, with the major currencies treading water over the past few sessions after last week’s US Fed induced burst of volatility. EUR (the major USD alternative) is tracking just above ~$1.18, USD/JPY (the...

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23 Sep 2025

Fedspeak Deluge Keeps Markets Guessing

The dollar is treading water against its major peers, Treasury yields are drifting lower, and equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open as investors parse mixed signals emanating from Federal Reserve officials. Yesterday’s chorus of Fed speakers was, on balance, decidedly hawkish. St. Louis’ Alberto Musalem said “I supported the 25-basis-point reduction in the FOMC’s [Federal Open Market Committee’s] policy rate last week as a precautionary move intended to support the labor market at full employment and against further weakening. However, I believe there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative”. Atlanta’s Raphael...

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22 Sep 2025

Dollar Edges Lower Ahead of Heavy Fedspeak Week

Last week’s modest recovery in the dollar is showing signs of exhaustion this morning as investors brace for a week dominated by speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 4.1-percent mark and stock market futures are pointing to incremental selling at the open after hitting new record highs in Friday’s session, while the euro and pound advance against the greenback amid a sluggish trading backdrop. On the surface, this week’s macroeconomic calendar looks substantially less dangerous. A raft of purchasing manager indices, out tomorrow, should provide insight into how global economic conditions are evolving...

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