EUR

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. With geopolitical risks and an ongoing rout in artificial intelligence stocks combining to suppress risk appetite, currency markets are struggling to gain momentum ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve rate decision. The euro, pound, and yen are virtually unchanged, and the trade-weighted dollar is flat. Oil prices are holding firm after jumping more than 5% last night following what American officials called a “surprise”* Iranian attack on a US airbase. US and Saudi forces separately struck Iran-backed militants in Iraq after a series of drone attacks against Saudi energy...

Oil prices are easing and markets are rebounding after the United States and Iran paused military hostilities over the weekend—reportedly in part because American munitions stocks are running low. Brent crude is trading at $88 a barrel—down almost 12% from Friday’s levels as traders try to avoid being wrong-footed by yet another diplomatic reversal—Treasury yields are slipping, and futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pointing to a strong advance at the open. The dollar is down against most of its major rivals as investors brace for an intense week. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of...

Good morning. A palpable sense of caution is pervading global markets after Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings but raised its capital expenditure forecast, reigniting concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment cycle. Google’s parent delivered its strongest-ever quarter of growth in cloud computing, but said it would spend as much as $205bn this year building out data centres after having already committed $44.9bn in the second quarter alone. Separately, Tesla reported negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion in the second quarter, while its net income fell 5%. Amid a dramatic pivot away from the capital-light operating model that...