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04 Nov 2026

Democrats’ blue wave

• Blue wave. Large swing for Democrats in US mid-terms. Set to control House & Senate. US equities rose. Bond yields, oil prices, & USD declined.• AUD rebounds. Weaker USD & positive risk sentiment boosted the AUD. Push-pull forces point to more volatility. Softer USD offset by slower AU economy. Global Trends The US mid-term election results were in the market driver’s seat overnight, with the sweep of Congress by the Democrats exceeding even bullish pre-vote predictions. The Democrats look to have secured control of both the House and the Senate with strong majorities. There are several push/pull forces to...

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04 Nov 2026

Oil prices tumble as administration signals pivot on Iran

Global energy prices are plunging after US vice president JD Vance blamed the Iran conflict for Republican losses in last night’s midterms, a development traders are reading as the first clear sign that Washington’s appetite for the war is fading. In a lengthy post on Twitter/X, Vance suggested that the decision to attack Iran had cost Republicans the House and Senate. His intervention added to signs of growing dissent over the war among party insiders – and to reports that Donald Trump is considering replacing Pete Hegseth as defence secretary – leading markets to imagine the administration will find a...

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03 Nov 2026

Dollar weakens as Democrats head for blue sweep

Donald Trump is set to spend the final two years of his presidency facing unified Congressional opposition. With results still coming in, major broadcasters are giving Democrats greater than 95% odds of flipping both the House and the Senate in today’s midterm elections. Investors had anticipated a Republican defeat. Data ahead of the vote showed Donald Trump with the lowest approval rating of any president heading into a midterm election since modern polling began, as voter concerns about rising living costs, worsening political corruption, and the war in the Middle East outweighed unease about a Democratic lurch to the left....

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03 Nov 2026

RBA moves again, but is that it?

• Push/pull forces. Rebound in tech stocks boosted US equities. US mid-term elections in focus today. Potential for bursts of USD volatility over period ahead.• RBA hike. RBA raised rates to 4.85%, high since 2008. AUD slips back. Worsening growth outlook & split RBA vote suggests hiking phase may be over. Global Trends There have been a few intermittent gyrations across markets over the past few sessions as macro and geopolitical factors washed through. On net, a tentative revival of the AI trade boosted US equities overnight (S&P500 +0.3%, NASDAQ +0.8%). Bond yields ticked up (US 10yr +5bps to ~4.96%),...

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31 Oct 2026

Week Ahead Market Brief: November 2 -6

Good morning, and happy Halloween. Currency and government bond markets are holding steady after a week in which monetary and fiscal policymakers largely delivered on expectations: the Bank of Canada raised rates; the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all held; and in Britain, Chancellor Healey delivered a well-telegraphed, fiscally moderate Budget that kept investors onside with Andy Burnham’s government. Most major currency pairs look largely range-bound, with measures of expected volatility remaining remarkably subdued – including at the one-week horizon – suggesting that participants expect more of the same over the coming days. The...

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