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EUR

Hawks in the Fed nest

• Fed hike. A ‘hawkish’ US Fed rate rise. Forecasts point to more ‘tightening’ later this year. US equities dip. USD firmer. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Macro pulse. US retail sales stronger than expected. US Fed has more work to do. BoE tonight & BoJ tomorrow. RBA predicted to hike rates later this month. Global Trends Economic events in the US were in focus overnight with a strong retail sales report compounded by a ‘hawkish’ interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US retail sales grew 1.2% in August, a positive signal about broader macro momentum given...

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Tension rises ahead of Fed decision

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. The dollar is holding firm, with investors and economists overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will raise rates for the first time in more than three years, amid a surge in global energy prices and a jump in long-term yields. Oil remains above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia, after coming under sustained attack from Iran and its allies, suspended loading at its Yanbu port and cancelled some shipments to Europe. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below 5%, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open....

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Will the US Fed rattle markets?

• Risk wobbles. Higher oil prices & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD drift back. AUD ~1.5% from last weeks peak.• US rates. US Fed in focus with a hike expected tomorrow (4am AEST). But Fed may struggle to be more ‘hawkish’ than what is priced. USD volatility likely. Global Trends Cyclical assets remain on the backfoot with the combination of higher oil prices (brent crude has edged up towards ~US$109/brl, levels last traded in mid-May with the re-escalation in the US/Iran conflict showing no signs of improvement) and rising bond yields dampening sentiment. The inflation...

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Bond selloff continues, lending support to the dollar

Good morning. The selloff in global bond markets is intensifying this morning, pushing yields to their highest levels in decades and weighing on risk appetite across the financial system. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 5% mark, equity futures are pointing to losses at the open, and the dollar is advancing incrementally against all of its G10 counterparts. After a brief reversal yesterday, energy prices are climbing once again, with benchmark Brent crude futures trading above $105 a barrel as buyers scramble to secure supplies amid a deepening shortfall. The Middle East’s biggest energy exporter, Saudi Arabia, is under...

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Energy prices rebound, destabilising markets ahead of central bank decisions

Happy Monday. Long-term bond yields are climbing and the dollar is advancing as a rebound in global energy prices raises the stakes ahead of central bank decisions later this week. Brent crude is trading for nearly $108 a barrel after Houthi militants seized a Red Sea port, threatening oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and drones struck at least two pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, forcing a system-wide shutdown. Equity futures are pointing to losses at the open after US artificial intelligence companies led by OpenAI argued that development should be slowed to allow a better understanding...

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