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EUR

27 Aug 2026

Traders take shelter ahead of Jackson Hole

Good morning. Most major currency pairs are little changed this morning as traders trim positions and avoid directional bets ahead of tomorrow’s long-awaited address from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Oil prices are edging lower as talks between Iran and Oman over the fate of the Strait of Hormuz show signs of progress, Treasury yields are holding steady, and US equity futures are set for an advance at the open after Nvidia said it expects to grow revenues by 70% over the next year, beating Wall Street expectations. Data published yesterday morning left Federal...

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26 Aug 2026

RBA losing patience?

• US data. Firmer US activity & inflation data supported bond yields. USD a bit firmer against most currencies. AUD bucks the trend because of AU CPI.• AU pulse. July inflation higher than predicted. Odds of another RBA hike by year-end lift. Late-Sep meeting ‘live’. But has the AUD already factored it in? Global Trends A bit of a reversal in fortunes overnight across some markets overnight with US equities a touch softer (NASDAQ -0.1%), bond yields rising a little (US rates rose ~2-4bps across the curve), oil nudging up (brent crude +0.5% to US$87.45/brl), and the USD firmer against...

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25 Aug 2026

Upbeat tone. But for how long?

• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility. Global Trends Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned by a dip in oil. The tech-centric NASDAQ (+0.7%) outperformed the broader S&P500 (+0.3%), while US bond yields shed ~6-7bps across the curve. The US 10yr rate (now ~4.63%) has slipped towards the bottom of its 1-month range, however...

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25 Aug 2026

Currencies steady as conflicting forces keep the dollar hemmed in

Good morning. Measures of implied volatility are holding steady across financial markets, as the drumbeat of economic data slows and after the Trump administration’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran’s trading partners turned out to involve more rubber dinghies than landing craft. Treasury yields are edging lower (albeit from elevated levels), equity futures are advancing, and currency markets are firmly range-bound, with most major currencies down by less than 0.3% against the dollar since Friday’s close. Oil prices are slipping, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate down by more than 3% from yesterday. After threatening “the single greatest financial offensive...

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24 Aug 2026

Dollar tries to climb off the mat

Good morning and welcome back. The US dollar is struggling to climb off a three-month low as traders digest last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the breakdown in US-Canada trade negotiations, and await Friday’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc are all marginally softer—but still up solidly relative to a week ago. The dollar tumbled last week when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his department would “at least” double its purchases of long-term...

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