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EUR

01 Apr 2026

Markets climb on Iran optimism

Markets are soaring after US President Donald Trump announced an end to the war in Iran, saying that he and parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf had “really hit it off” during a FaceTime call brokered by Jared Kushner. “Tremendous guy. Deeply misunderstood. Loves oceanfront real estate,” Trump posted at 4:17 AM. Under the proposed settlement, Iran has agreed to give up nuclear enrichment activities in favour of simply getting rich. Tehran will recycle its oil revenues into a new dollar-pegged stablecoin called the PetroDollar™, which will be backed by partial ownership stakes in certain Trump-branded properties, including an unused room...

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31 Mar 2026

Sentiment vs reality

• Positive vibes. ‘Glass half full’ markets buoyed by US/Iran comments. US equities rose, oil fell. USD weaker. AUD & NZD claw back some lost ground.• Economic reality. Still more water to go under the bridge. Impacts of energy supply shock yet to show. More bursts of volatility likely over coming weeks. Global Trends After a challenging few weeks for risk sentiment, markets ended March on a more positive note. As has been the case for the past month developments in the Middle East have been in the driver’s seat. Hopes the conflict with Iran may be heading towards a...

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31 Mar 2026

Market stress eases on reports of a potential shift in US Mideast strategy

Financial markets are staging yet another relief rally after the Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is considering declaring victory in the Iran conflict without establishing control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to an article published last night, the president now believes the US should limit itself to incapacitating Iran’s navy and missile forces, unilaterally ending large-scale attacks before achieving the regime change goals set out at the war’s onset. Relative to the alternatives, this is a market-friendly outcome: it would give Tehran an opening to pull back on its strikes on regional infrastructure and allow shipping to...

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30 Mar 2026

Mideast conflict deepens, threatening global markets

The dollar is on course for its strongest monthly performance since July and Brent crude is tracking what could be a record monthly gain as the US-Israeli war against Iran devolves into a protracted regional conflict. In an interview with the Financial Times last night, US president Donald Trump said “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people”. “Maybe we take Kharg Island,” he said, “maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” alluding...

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29 Mar 2026

War, what is it good for?

• Conflict concerns. Risk sentiment negative. Oil prices higher. Equities lower. USD edging up. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. AUD ~4.7% from its March peak.• Global economy. More volatility likely. Impact on world economy from energy supply shock still in the pipeline. Cyclical/growth-linked assets under pressure. Global Trends Middle East related nervousness kept sentiment negative at the end of last week. Worries the conflict (which is now in its 5th week, and showing no signs of improving) will generate a “stagflationary” environment for the world economy (i.e. higher inflation and slower growth) are front of mind. The Strait of...

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