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EUR

15 Dec 2025

Price action slows as traders brace for dangerous week

Currency markets are trading cautiously as participants prepare to close the books on 2025, with many cutting exposure ahead of a week laden with economic data and central bank event risks. The dollar is adding to last week’s losses amid a debate over whether the next meaningful move comes from a narrowing in cross-currency rate differentials or a hawkish repricing in US growth expectations, trading volumes are turning choppy amid year-end rebalancing flows, and measures of implied volatility are showing a small uptick as investors prepare for unexpected moves. Here in North America, a number of key data releases are...

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14 Dec 2025

Data flow picks up this week

• Equity wobbles. Fresh valuation concerns weighed on US equities on Friday. AUD & NZD lost a bit of ground, but still rose over the past week.• Event Radar. NZ GDP is out (Thurs). US jobs data, retail sales, & CPI due this week. ECB looks set to hold, BoE could cut, & BoJ might hike rates. Global Trends Outside of a narrowly based pullback in US equities on Friday stemming from fresh valuation concerns across the AI sector (S&P500 -1.1%, NASDAQ -1.7%) other market moves were modest. Indeed, even after accounting for Friday’s dip the S&P500 is not that...

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11 Dec 2025

Dollar holds post-Fed losses

The dollar is back on the defensive this morning as markets absorb yesterday’s unexpectedly-neutral Federal Reserve rate cut as well as a stumble in the overheated US tech complex ahead of next week’s cluster of event risks. Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve, and traders are assigning a marginally higher probability to additional easing in 2026 after yesterday’s decision landed with a less hawkish tone than many had anticipated. Equity futures are pointing to early losses after Oracle delivered underwhelming cloud-computing results even as it pledged to ramp up capital spending—reinforcing investor concerns about the durability of the...

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10 Dec 2025

Hold the line

• US Fed. Another US rate cut announced. But guidance wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. Positive for sentiment. USD weaker. AUD close to year-to-date peak.• AU jobs. Australian employment data due today. Monthly figures are volatile. Another solid report would reinforce views RBA may hike rates in early-2026. Global Trends The US Fed meeting was the market focal point overnight. As expected, the US Fed delivered another 25bp rate cut, lowering the policy target range to 3.50-3.75%. This was ~90% factored in ahead of the event. Notably, the Fed’s updated guidance and economic projections were little different from last time...

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10 Dec 2025

Currencies flatline into central bank decisions

Happy Fed Day to those who celebrate. Global risk assets are drifting lower, yields are a touch firmer, and the dollar is trading in the middle of its recent trading range as investors await what is widely expected to be a third consecutive “hawkish cut” from the Federal Reserve this afternoon. Data published yesterday showed US labour markets cooling, but not at an alarming rate. On the positive side of the ledger, the number of job openings surged to 7.67 million in October from 7.23 million in August, but this may have been driven by pre-holiday staffing increases. The hires...

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