EUR

• Consolidation. US equities tread water ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision. The USD index ticked up. AUD outperformed due to RBA rhetoric.• RBA shift. No change in rates yesterday but there were ‘hawkish’ signals. Inflation risks have changed. February meeting looks ‘live’ for a rate hike.• US Fed. Another rate cut expected. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. A ‘cautious’ tone about more near-term rate reductions may see the USD lift. Global Trends Modest moves across most asset classes overnight as traders marked time ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision (Thurs 6am AEDT) and Chair Powell’s press conference...

• Solid run. US equities rose on Friday, as did bond yields. USD index tread water. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) strengthened.• Central banks. No change by RBA (Tues), however tone could be ‘hawkish’. US Fed (Thurs morning) set to cut rates but may not signal another near-term move. Global Trends Markets had a relatively quiet end to last week with a string of government shutdown delayed US data points not really moving the needle. In terms of the numbers US equities edged up with the broader S&P500 (+0.2%) within striking distance of its record highs. Bond yields also rose...

• US data. Weaker US ADP employment reinforced US Fed rate cut bets. US equities ticked up & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD supported.• AU GDP. Topline growth a bit softer than anticipated in Q3, but under the hood private sector momentum picked up speed. Price pressures still evident.• RBA & Fed. Odds next move by RBA is up not down continue to rise. By contrast, a series of US Fed cuts are anticipated over the next year. Global Trends It was a case of “bad US economic news is good news for markets” overnight. More signs growth...