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EUR

Markets reverse lower ahead of key payrolls report

Markets are turning defensive ahead of the weekend as the war in the Middle East shows little sign of progress and investors grow more cautious on artificial-intelligence stocks. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude look set to post their first weekly gains in three weeks after Hezbollah rejected a new ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel said it would maintain its troop presence in the country, undermining President Trump’s efforts to negotiate a face-saving exit from the conflict with Tehran. Equity futures are pointing to losses at the open after Broadcom, the semiconductor developer, beat quarterly earnings expectations but forecast disappointing...

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Another Iran escalation whipsaws markets

Good morning, and happy Groundhog Day*. The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are rising as diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz falter once again. Iran and the United States said last week they had reached a tentative deal to halt the war, but nothing has been signed and events on the ground moved in the opposite direction overnight: Iranian missiles damaged Kuwait’s airport and targeted Bahrain, attacks on commercial shipping resumed, US forces carried out strikes in response, and Israel continued its assault on Lebanese towns despite an American-brokered ceasefire. Both global crude benchmarks are up more...

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Global inflation pressures building

• Holding on. Modest financial market moves. US equities & oil tick up. NZD a bit softer. AUD edges up slightly & outperforms on the crosses.• Data flow. More signs US jobs market is holding up. EZ inflation quickens, raising odds of an ECB rate hike next week. AU Q1 GDP released today. Global Trends A fairly quiet 24hrs across markets with modest net moves coming through across most asset classes. US equities nudged up (S&P500 +0.1%), US bond yields consolidated, oil rose slightly (WTI crude +1.4%), and the major currencies tread water with EUR drifting sideways (now ~$1.1630), USD/JPY...

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Iran headlines dominate currency market price action

Treasury yields and the dollar are retreating from yesterday’s highs after Hezbollah and Israel agreed to temporarily halt cross-border fighting, giving Iranian officials cause to return to the bargaining table. Oil prices had posted their sharpest one-day surge in a month after Tehran said it was abandoning talks amid an intensifying Israeli assault on Lebanon, reviving supply fears that had been dormant for weeks. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate are down roughly 1.3% this morning, ten-year Treasury yields have eased back to 4.42%, and the trade-weighted dollar is edging lower as traders unwind the defensive positioning built up during...

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Middle East uncertainty continues

• Headline noise. Conflicting Middle East news generated a few bursts of volatility. US bond yields & USD ticked up. NZD & AUD lost a bit of ground.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI tonight. US non-farm payrolls due later this week. Australian Q1 GDP out on Wednesday. RBA Gov. Bullock also speaks (Thurs). Global Trends Middle East-related headlines knocked markets around a little overnight. Uncertainty about a durable peace deal remains and skirmishes between opposing forces continued over the weekend. Conflicting comments generated a few intra-session bursts of volatility yesterday. On the one hand, Iranian media reported the country would suspend...

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