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EUR

Upbeat tone. But for how long?

• Positive vibes. Improved sentiment about the US/Iran conflict has weighed on oil prices. Bond yields lower, equities higher. AUD & NZD rose overnight.• Data trends. Australian monthly CPI out today. US PCE deflator due tonight. Signs of moderating inflation may generate AUD & USD volatility. Global Trends Markets were in a slightly better mood overnight with bonds and equities underpinned by a dip in oil. The tech-centric NASDAQ (+0.7%) outperformed the broader S&P500 (+0.3%), while US bond yields shed ~6-7bps across the curve. The US 10yr rate (now ~4.63%) has slipped towards the bottom of its 1-month range, however...

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Currencies steady as conflicting forces keep the dollar hemmed in

Good morning. Measures of implied volatility are holding steady across financial markets, as the drumbeat of economic data slows and after the Trump administration’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Iran’s trading partners turned out to involve more rubber dinghies than landing craft. Treasury yields are edging lower (albeit from elevated levels), equity futures are advancing, and currency markets are firmly range-bound, with most major currencies down by less than 0.3% against the dollar since Friday’s close. Oil prices are slipping, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate down by more than 3% from yesterday. After threatening “the single greatest financial offensive...

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Dollar tries to climb off the mat

Good morning and welcome back. The US dollar is struggling to climb off a three-month low as traders digest last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the breakdown in US-Canada trade negotiations, and await Friday’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc are all marginally softer—but still up solidly relative to a week ago. The dollar tumbled last week when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his department would “at least” double its purchases of long-term...

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Twists & turns in US rates

• US yields. Swings in US yields over the past few days on the back of Treasury news has generated some FX vol. AUD near top of its multi-week range.• AU jobs. Cracks in the AU labour market are widening. Unemployment at 2021 levels. RBA may not need to hike rates again. AUD headwinds building. Global Trends A few more ructions across markets over the past couple of sessions. But rather than being geopolitically driven the gyrations related to developments in the US bond market, and this spilled over into other asset classes like FX. Yesterday the US Treasury announced...

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Rising bond yields rattle markets

• Shaky sentiment. US equities slip back as long end bond yields climb higher due to inflation & debt burden worries. AUD & NZD lose some ground.• Macro data. Australian wages due today & the jobs report is out tomorrow. Data flow could challenge the markets RBA rate hike thinking. Global Trends Market wobbles continued overnight with a modest bout of risk aversion dragging on things like US equities (S&P500 -0.7%, NASDAQ -1.3%), copper (-2.3%) and precious metals (gold -1.9%), as well as cyclical currencies such as the AUD (now ~$0.7085) and NZD (now ~$0.5874). Interconnected worries about inflation and...

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