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EUR

08 Jul 2026

Breakdown in US-Iran ceasefire triggers whiplash across currency markets

Good morning. The dollar is advancing and oil prices are climbing after a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed, endangering a nascent recovery in global energy supplies. A series of Iranian missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping yesterday prompted the United States to revoke a sanctions waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell oil on international markets and to launch more than 80 airstrikes against Iranian targets, which were followed by Iranian strikes across the Middle East. At the Nato summit in Ankara, President Trump said the ceasefire was over “as far as I’m concerned”, adding “I...

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07 Jul 2026

Markets steady as data cadence slows and underlying trends stay in place

Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are enjoying a quiet, range-bound session, with most currencies little changed against the dollar amid a lack of first-tier economic data and a paucity of geopolitical catalysts. Treasury yields are inching lower, equity futures are pointing to a modest drop in the Nasdaq at the open, and all of the major currency pairs are less than 0.1% off yesterday’s close. Oil markets are refusing to rally. Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices are holding near five-month lows even after a fully-laden Qatar-owned LNG carrier was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting...

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06 Jul 2026

Holding steady

• US markets. US stocks rose with the tech sector leading the way. USD Index treads water. The AUD ticked up thanks in part to strength on the crosses.• Data flow. Limited data releases in Australia & the US. RBNZ meets tomorrow. Will the RBNZ deliver its first interest rate hike of this cycle? Global Trends It has been a relatively positive start to the new week in US markets. US equities rose overnight (S&P500 +0.7%), with the tech focused NASDAQ outperforming (+1.1%). Oversold semiconductor and AI stocks rebounded after last week’s falls. Elsewhere, long end bond yields held steady...

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06 Jul 2026

Dollar shrugs off soft jobs data ahead of Fed minutes

Good morning. The dollar is holding firm even after Thursday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls report triggered a pullback in Federal Reserve tightening expectations. American employers added just 57,000 workers in June, far short of the 115,000 forecast, and revisions lopped a combined 74,000 from the previous two months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but not because of a pickup in hiring—labour-force participation dropped to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021. With a no-hire, no-fire equilibrium persisting and wage pressures seen remaining contained, investors are placing 20% odds on a hike in July and 45% on a move by September, down...

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02 Jul 2026

US jobs data underwhelms

• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls weaker than expected. Some noise in the monthly report. US Fed rate hike pricing pushed back. USD softer. AUD a bit firmer.• JPY focus. Reports out of Japan indicate officials may move to a less predictable FX intervention strategy. Will they step in during the US holiday? Global Trends Ahead of the US’ Independence Day long weekend markets were focused on the latest monthly jobs report. The topline results were generally weaker than predicted with US non-farm payrolls growth slowing to 57,000 in June (its smallest gain since the falls recorded in February), and the...

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