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EUR

Dollar climbs as rate differentials grow more supportive

Good morning. The dollar is edging toward an 18-month high as the Federal Reserve maintains its tightening bias, while higher energy prices and rising yields weigh on other major currencies. The euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, and Mexican peso are all trading near the bottom of their recent ranges, reflecting a fairly consistent move in rate differentials relative to the dollar. Yesterday’s minutes from the Fed’s September meeting confirmed what markets already believed. Participants unanimously agreed that disinflation was making too little progress and that borrowing costs should climb as geopolitics and the artificial-intelligence buildout add to upside price risks....

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Dollar climbs in line with rising yields

Good morning. Oil prices are back above $100 a barrel, yields are climbing, and the dollar is once again in the ascendant as Iran steps up its attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and traders keep a wary eye on a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Brent futures are trading near $102 a barrel after several strikes were reported overnight and forecasters warned that the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 could threaten offshore oil and gas facilities responsible for a significant share of US output. Ten-year Treasury yields are near 5.32%, and the trade-weighted dollar is...

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Dollar softens but stays elevated as energy prices ease

Good morning. The dollar is retreating, but remains near its highest levels since April last year, even as energy prices ease modestly and Treasury yields inch lower. Data released yesterday showed the US services sector remaining in expansionary territory last month, with strong demand adding to the strain on supply chains and raising price pressures, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer. The euro is steadying and stress in European bond markets is easing as French politicians—with varying degrees of credibility—attempt to project a message of fiscal prudence. The spread between French and German...

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Dollar climbs as fear intensifies in global currency markets

Happy Monday. The dollar is trading near its strongest levels since last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff debacle, and measures of implied volatility are climbing as long-term borrowing costs soar and fears of another sovereign-debt crisis stalk the euro area. Virtually every major currency is in an oversold technical position relative to the greenback, with most pairs trading almost 2% below their 200-day moving averages. Last week brought a dovish repricing in expectations for US monetary policy. Throughout the week, Fed officials, including New York president John Williams. suggested policymakers needed more time to assess conditions, hinting that the next move...

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US payrolls disappoint, easing upward pressure on yields and the dollar

The US job creation engine decelerated sharply in September, adding to market bets on a short pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign in October. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 29,000 jobs were added in the month—representing an undershoot relative to the 90,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 60,000 positions, bringing the three-month average pace of job creation down to 51,000, from 71,000 ahead of the update. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.2% percent from 4.1% in August, and average hourly earnings climbed just 0.1% month-over-month, slowing from the 0.3%...

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