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EUR

20 Jul 2025

Hanging on

• Hanging on. A quieter end to last week. US equities consolidated. USD a bit softer. AUD & NZD ticked up but still lost ground over the week.• US trends. US data has generally been a bit better than anticipated recently. Will this trend continue & will the USD’s rebound extend?• Event Radar. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks (Thurs) & the ECB meets (Thurs night). The global business PMIs are also due later this week. Global Trends After a few bursts of volatility earlier in the week it was an uneventful trading session on Friday. US equities consolidated around record highs,...

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17 Jul 2025

Dollar Rebounds After Short-Lived Selloff

The dollar is resuming its upward climb and bond markets are stabilising after suffering a short-lived bout of extreme volatility early in yesterday’s session on speculation surrounding the potential firing of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Most major currencies are down between 1 and 1.5 percent against the greenback this week as the world’s most central currency enjoys a technical recovery against its peers. If yesterday was a test run to see how investors would take the early dismissal of Jerome Powell, it didn’t go particularly well. The dollar slumped, short-term Treasury yields tumbled, long-term yields soared, and equity indices...

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16 Jul 2025

Fed Chair in the firing line

• Market jolt. Reports & denials about whether Chair Powell may be removed generated a burst of volatility. On net, US equities rose & USD weakened.• Fed changes. Fed Chair can’t be fired ‘without cause’. Disagreement over rates not enough. Potential change another example of US policy uncertainty.• AU jobs. Volatile Australian jobs report released today. Will it show cracks are widening? US retail sales & import prices out tonight. Global Trends A burst of headline driven volatility washed through markets overnight. Rather than being tariff related it stemmed from possible changes at the top of the US Federal Reserve....

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15 Jul 2025

USD revival tour

• US CPI. Uptick in US inflation has seen Fed rate cut expectations fall. USD firmer on the back of higher yields. AUD & NZD lose some ground.• US data flow. US producer prices out tonight. US import prices & retail sales due tomorrow. More signs of tariff impacts could give USD more support.• AU jobs. Australian jobs report also released tomorrow. The data has been volatile the past few months. Will unemployment rise in June? Global Trends US economic data was in focus overnight with the latest CPI inflation report showing more of an impact on ‘goods’ prices from...

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15 Jul 2025

Knee-Jerk Market Reaction Fades On Mixed US Inflation Print

US inflation printed below expectations for a fifth consecutive month in June as tariff-led price increases in core goods categories were offset by softness in the services sector and in automobile costs. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 2.9 percent in June from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, accelerating from the prior month’s 0.1-percent pace, but undershooting consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On...

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