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EUR

Equity market snap-back fails to reverse the dollar’s decline

Happy Friday. Global equity indices are rebounding this morning after Citadel, Ken Griffin’s investment firm, stepped in to acquire the portfolio of technology-focused fund Situational Awareness, which had come under extreme stress as declining valuations forced it to meet margin calls from its lenders. The rescue of 25-year-old* Leopold Aschenbrenner’s firm reduces the risk of a disorderly liquidation of artificial intelligence-related holdings and has supported a modest recovery in risk appetite. The dollar—the principal beneficiary of the artificial-intelligence boom, buoyed by the concentration of investment in the US and strong foreign demand for related assets—is nonetheless struggling to find its...

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JPY FX market jolt

• JPY jump. Sizeable drop in USD/JPY, reportedly due to intervention. This has weighed on the USD & pushed AUD up to levels last traded in mid-June.• Market pulse. BoJ meets today. Could it deliver a surprise hike? BoE kept rates steady overnight. US GDP underwhelmed but underlying detail was solid. Global Trends A flurry of excitement across markets overnight with FX in the spotlight. The USD has been under pressure with a bit more of a reaction to yesterday’s ‘on hold’ US Fed decision compounded by moves in the JPY. USD/JPY (the second most traded currency pair) has dropped...

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Credibility shock rocks US rate curves, leaves dollar on the defensive

Good morning. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold yesterday, leaving rates unchanged while laying the groundwork for future hikes. The statement was broadly unchanged from June, but three officials—Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan and Neel Kashkari—dissented in favour of an immediate increase, up from two at the prior meeting and illustrative of a growing tightening bias on the committee. Markets had assigned roughly one-in-three odds to a move ahead of the decision, and small position adjustments followed in its immediate aftermath. But a credibility shock followed. Chair Kevin Warsh opened his second press conference by declaring that “this Fed will...

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AUD on the backfoot

• Market forces. Renewed Middle East tensions push up oil. Equities dip. USD a bit softer after the US Fed holds policy steady. AUD underperforms.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation better than feared. Market pricing for another RBA rate hike pared back. Shift in relative yield spreads an AUD headwind. Global Trends After a few positive days risk assets came under some pressure overnight. Renewed tensions in the Middle East somewhat dampened the mood. Skirmishes across the region raised concerns about energy flows and the outlook for talks with President Trump stating that, in response to attacks, “we’ll be hitting them...

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Markets go quiet in run-up to deeply uncertain Fed decision

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. With geopolitical risks and an ongoing rout in artificial intelligence stocks combining to suppress risk appetite, currency markets are struggling to gain momentum ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve rate decision. The euro, pound, and yen are virtually unchanged, and the trade-weighted dollar is flat. Oil prices are holding firm after jumping more than 5% last night following what American officials called a “surprise”* Iranian attack on a US airbase. US and Saudi forces separately struck Iran-backed militants in Iraq after a series of drone attacks against Saudi energy...

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