EUR

Good morning. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold yesterday, leaving rates unchanged while laying the groundwork for future hikes. The statement was broadly unchanged from June, but three officials—Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan and Neel Kashkari—dissented in favour of an immediate increase, up from two at the prior meeting and illustrative of a growing tightening bias on the committee. Markets had assigned roughly one-in-three odds to a move ahead of the decision, and small position adjustments followed in its immediate aftermath. But a credibility shock followed. Chair Kevin Warsh opened his second press conference by declaring that “this Fed will...

Good morning. The dollar is easing off a one-month high ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting, caught between two countervailing forces: a fall in oil prices that is easing inflation fears, and a deepening selloff in global technology stocks that threatens the foundations of US exceptionalism. The euro, pound, yen, and Mexican peso are edging lower, while the Canadian dollar recovers its footing amid a lack of directional conviction. Oil prices are extending their declines following Washington’s abrupt suspension of air strikes on Iran over the weekend. President Trump yesterday claimed the US was having “good talks” with Tehran, and...