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EUR

29 Sep 2026

RBA: once more, with feeling

The RBA has acted on its ‘hawkish’ comments and announced another 25bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting. After delivering a rapid-fire recalibration in rates earlier in the year and then being on hold since May, the nervousness of RBA officials about inflation, coupled with domestic data related to prices, and another wave of upward pressure from global forces meant today’s move was anticipated. Although the ‘unanimous’ Board vote was a bit of a surprise. According to the RBA “inflation remains elevated”, some of the “upside risks flagged in August are materializing”, and policymakers remain focused on “ensuring that high...

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28 Sep 2026

Iran breakdown adds impetus to yield moves

Happy Monday. Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is holding near a two-month high after back-channel negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed once again, leaving markets grappling with renewed inflation risks and bracing for a heavy week of data releases. Energy prices are edging higher, adding to inflation pressure and bolstering expectations for tighter monetary policy. Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though he claimed negotiations would resume this week; Tehran, for its part, showed no sign of scaling back its demands. Front-month Brent futures are trading for almost...

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24 Sep 2026

Markets still on shaky ground

• Jittery markets. Oil prices rose again, as did bond yields. Risk sentiment remains fragile. USD firmer. AUD & NZD still under pressure.• Global pulse. RBA expected to hike rates on Tuesday. China PMIs, US PCE & US jobs report on the radar next week. More market volatility likely. Global Trends Familiar themes continue to be in the market driver’s seat with the mix of elevated oil prices, inflation risks, and rising bond yields continuing to dampen the mood. Oil was volatile on the back of negative and positive US/Iran related news flow with skirmishes in the region offset by...

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24 Sep 2026

Soaring yields strain global currency markets

Good morning. The dollar is sitting near a two-month high after Treasury yields posted their biggest single-day jump since the market convulsions that followed last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements. With the exception of the Swiss franc, every major currency is down almost 1% against the greenback this week. Investors were wrongfooted yesterday when S&P Global’s purchasing-managers’ index showed US business activity growing at its fastest pace in five years in September. According to the typically-humdrum second-tier release, output across the manufacturing and services sectors hit its highest levels since July 2021. The manufacturing index jumped to 57, its best...

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23 Sep 2026

Bond blow up

• Risk off. Inflation worries from rising oil prices & a potential US diesel export ban generated another jump in bond yields. USD firmer. AUD & NZD weaker.• Global forces. Australian jobs data due today. But global forces more in focus for the AUD. RBA likely to hike next week but growth slowdown is looming. Global Trends Global markets hit an air pocket overnight. A combination of factors we have been calling out such as disruptions to refined petroleum products, renewed inflation worries, rising bond yields, and the negative implications for global activity down the track generated a bout of...

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