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Will the US Fed rattle markets?

• Risk wobbles. Higher oil prices & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD drift back. AUD ~1.5% from last weeks peak.• US rates. US Fed in focus with a hike expected tomorrow (4am AEST). But Fed may struggle to be more ‘hawkish’ than what is priced. USD volatility likely. Global Trends Cyclical assets remain on the backfoot with the combination of higher oil prices (brent crude has edged up towards ~US$109/brl, levels last traded in mid-May with the re-escalation in the US/Iran conflict showing no signs of improvement) and rising bond yields dampening sentiment. The inflation...

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Bond selloff continues, lending support to the dollar

Good morning. The selloff in global bond markets is intensifying this morning, pushing yields to their highest levels in decades and weighing on risk appetite across the financial system. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near the 5% mark, equity futures are pointing to losses at the open, and the dollar is advancing incrementally against all of its G10 counterparts. After a brief reversal yesterday, energy prices are climbing once again, with benchmark Brent crude futures trading above $105 a barrel as buyers scramble to secure supplies amid a deepening shortfall. The Middle East’s biggest energy exporter, Saudi Arabia, is under...

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Energy prices rebound, destabilising markets ahead of central bank decisions

Happy Monday. Long-term bond yields are climbing and the dollar is advancing as a rebound in global energy prices raises the stakes ahead of central bank decisions later this week. Brent crude is trading for nearly $108 a barrel after Houthi militants seized a Red Sea port, threatening oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and drones struck at least two pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, forcing a system-wide shutdown. Equity futures are pointing to losses at the open after US artificial intelligence companies led by OpenAI argued that development should be slowed to allow a better understanding...

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Oil & bond yields still in the driver’s seat

• Market wobbles. Higher oil prices & rising yields dampen sentiment. Equities dip, USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground. AUD underperforms on crosses.• Data pulse. ECB raised rates overnight. US CPI due tonight. Markets pricing in a ~70% chance US Fed hikes next week. US CPI could generate volatility. Global Trends It was a case of rinse and repeat across markets overnight with another jump in oil and move higher in bond yields darkening the mood. In terms of oil a greater ‘supply risk premium’ continues to be incorporated with the renewed Middle East hostilities and heightened chances of...

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Markets stabilise ahead of crucial inflation data

Good morning. The US dollar is trading near a seven-month low ahead of key inflation data today and tomorrow that could determine the outcome of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed to a trickle after a series of American and Iranian attacks on ships and energy infrastructure, forcing global oil prices back above $100 a barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near a three-year high after the Treasury said yesterday it would buy just $6bn of long-dated bonds in its buyback operation, disappointing investors who had expected a purchase volume closer to $10bn....

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