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EUR

08 Feb 2026

Risk Reversal

• Risk rebound. Strong recovery in US equities. USD lost ground. Backdrop pushed NZD & AUD higher. JPY still under pressure post weekend elections.• Data flow. RBA Deputy Gov speaks (Weds). US retail sales (Tues night), jobs report (Weds night), & CPI (Fri night) due. Several Fed members also speak. Global Trends There was a turnaround in market sentiment at the end of last week with cyclical assets (i.e. equities and copper) and growth linked currencies such as the AUD and NZD posting solid gains on Friday. After a few soft sessions related to concerns about AI disruption and the...

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06 Feb 2026

Investors cautiously step into market wreckage seeking bargains

After several sessions of violent, whiplash price action in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and high-beta technology stocks, investors are hesitantly stepping back in this morning, driving a mean-reversion process across asset classes. The US dollar—which enjoyed a brief, and increasingly-unusual bout of safe-haven support earlier in the week—is retreating against most of its major peers, while Treasury yields are drifting lower and equity futures are pointing to a partial clawback of yesterday’s losses. The pattern of returns over the last week suggests that the recent market turbulence reflects narrative exhaustion rather than a decisive shift in macro fundamentals. Although thousands of...

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05 Feb 2026

Currency market fireworks remain subdued as traders process conflicting signals

Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are caught between conflicting forces as precious metals extend their decline and a sell-off in technology stocks shows signs of exhaustion. Gold and silver prices are tumbling once again, North American equity futures are setting up for modest gains at the open, and the dollar is advancing against most of its major peers amid choppy trading conditions. The pound is down sharply after the Bank of England narrowly avoided cutting rates in its latest decision, shocking observers expecting a far more neutral outcome. Four of nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to cut rates—well beyond...

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04 Feb 2026

Push-pull forces

• Push-pull. A few equity market wobbles overnight. USD a bit firmer. NZD underperforms. AUD retraces its RBA rate hike induced uptick.• Macro events. ECB & BoE expected to hold rates steady tonight. US JOLTS also due. US jobs report has been delayed until next week. Global Trends There were a few market wobbles overnight as various forces pushed and pulled on sentiment. US equities slipped back with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.5% vs S&P500 -0.5%). Some disappointing earnings results and a rotation out of the software and chipmaking tech stocks that have driven the market rally were factors at...

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04 Feb 2026

Tech washout leaves currency markets directionless

Foreign exchange markets are looking somewhat rudderless this morning after a technology-led selloff hammered the biggest US stocks yesterday and dampened global risk appetite. The dollar is extending its gains in thin trading, Treasury yields are modestly lower, and equity futures are pointing to another downward lurch at the open. The latest US government shutdown has ended, but key data releases including Friday’s non-farm payrolls report have been delayed, which should limit volatility—provided that White House social media accounts don’t light up once again. An rollout of productivity tools by Anthropic triggered yesterday’s rout, punishing companies that provide data and...

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