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EUR

06 May 2026

Let’s make a deal (round #5)

• Positive vibes. Markets optimistic about an end to the US/Iran conflict. Oil lower, USD softer. NZD outperforms. AUD touched a fresh multi-year high.• Twists & turns. Spillovers from the conflict set to be with us for a while. RBA rate hikes will weigh on growth. US jobs report could generate FX vol. Global Trends Markets have remained in a positive state of mind with hopes of an end to the conflict in Iran underpinning risk sentiment. Reports indicate the US has offered Iran a memorandum of understanding that could end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift...

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06 May 2026

Markets soar on hopes for Iran deal

The dollar is trading near its lowest levels in months, bond yields are plunging, and equity indices advancing after Axios reported that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement to end the war in the Middle East. Both global crude benchmarks are down more than 9%, with Brent trading below $100 and West Texas Intermediate nearing $90, and most major currencies are climbing against the greenback as traders scale back expectations for an energy price-induced shock to economies with heavy import exposures. A US-Iran deal could reshape the conflict and reduce risk across the global economy. According to Axios, Jared...

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05 May 2026

RBA hikes again. But it will come at a cost.

• Optimistic markets. Equities rose, oil dipped on positive US/Iran vibes. More volatility likely. USD softens. AUD whipped around by push/pull forces.• RBA hike. RBA announced its 3rd straight rate rise. Another hike more likely than not. But it will come at an economic cost. Growth set to slow sharply. Global Trends Sentiment about the situation in the Middle East has generated a few bursts of volatility over recent sessions. Following a deterioration in risk appetite yesterday indications the US/Iran ceasefire is holding eased fears overnight. US officials downplayed Iran’s actions stating that the targeting of warships and attacks on...

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05 May 2026

Ceasefire holds—symbolically, at least—relieving global markets

Good morning. Markets are steadying and crude prices are pulling back from their highs as the US and Iran avoid further escalation after a series of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz raised questions about the durability of the ceasefire struck in early April. Yesterday’s American attempt to open the waterway—dubbed “Project Freedom”—sank at least six Iranian fast-attack boats and triggered drone strikes on cargo and tanker ships, along with missile attacks on infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, sending energy benchmarks soaring. With Washington and Tehran making somewhat-conciliatory noises, Brent crude for July delivery is edging lower after jumping...

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04 May 2026

Confused narratives out of the Strait of Hormuz keep markets rangebound

Happy Monday. Oil prices are reverting higher and the dollar is holding steady after President Donald Trump announced plans to “guide”—but not escort—shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command, which is currently blockading Iranian ports, said 15,000 service members and more than 100 aircraft, along with warships and drones would support the initiative, yet stopped short of putting surface combatants at risk by offering convoy protection through the narrow waterway. A tanker off Fujairah reported being ⁠hit by “unknown projectiles” shortly after the US announcement, and Tehran this morning said it was implementing a new “control zone” in...

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