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EUR

18 Jun 2025

Holding on

• Holding on. Consolidation in markets with US equities & bond yields little changed. Lower vol. helped AUD & NZD edge higher.• US Fed. Policymakers still projecting two cuts in late-2025. But fewer reductions are anticipated in 2026 because of tariff-related inflation risks.• AU jobs. Monthly Australian employment figures out today. After a strong result in April will the volatile series show some payback in May? Global Trends Following the zigzag moves over the past few days on the back of evolving Middle East news markets consolidated overnight ahead of the US public holiday. The S&P500 was range-bound as were...

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18 Jun 2025

Investors Keep Powder Dry In Run-Up to Fed Meeting

The dollar is giving back yesterday’s gains, Treasury yields are holding steady, and North American equity markets are moving sideways as investors await news on the US role in the Israel-Iran conflict — and brace for this afternoon’s Federal Reserve decision. Oil prices leapt higher during yesterday’s session after US president Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” in a social media post, suggesting that American forces could soon join the fray, and raising the risk of a wider escalation in the war, but are now subsiding as traders monitor the newswires. The world’s most powerful central bank is widely...

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17 Jun 2025

Worries return

• Turnaround. Middle East concerns returned overnight. Oil rose, US equities & bond yields declined. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground.• Fluid situation. More headline driven volatility looks likely near-term. As seen the past few days sentiment can turn course quickly.• US Fed. No policy changes expected tomorrow. But will the US Fed tweak its ‘dot plot’ given inflation risks stemming from trade tariffs? Global Trends Geopolitical driven market gyrations continued overnight. Yesterday’s cautiously optimistic view on the Israel/Iran conflict reversed course with sentiment souring again. President Trump cut short his time at the G7 meeting and a flurry...

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17 Jun 2025

Dollar’s Decline Remains Intact Even As Risk Backdrop Worsens

The dollar is up slightly this morning, but remains on course toward its worst year-to-date performance in this century, even as geopolitical risks simmer in the background and the Federal Reserve grapples with a raft of potential inflation risks. Yields are under pressure, equity markets are headed for a mixed open, and measures of risk sentiment are softening ahead of an expected Israeli assault on Tehran later today — as well as tomorrow’s all-important Fed meeting. American consumers turned slightly more cautious in May, paying little heed to a 90-day tariff pause announced by the Trump administration — and the...

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16 Jun 2025

Upbeat vibes. Will it last?

• Improved vibes. Turnaround in markets overnight on reports Iran is looking to restart nuclear talks. Equities rose, oil prices eased. AUD & NZD rebounded.• Macro trends. Middle East situation remains fluid. Data wise, US retail sales out tonight. Signs consumer spending is holding up may give the USD a boost.• China pulse. Retail sales in China stronger. Industrial output also expanded. Developments in China are important for AUD’s medium-term trend. Global Trends Risk sentiment improved overnight. Markets have taken a more sanguine view of the Israel/Iran conflict given the fighting hasn’t spread across the region and because of reports...

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