EUR

Good morning. The dollar is flat, Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve, and oil prices continue to decline as traders await details of the US-Iran peace deal ahead of its signing on Friday and brace for turbulence around tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. Brent crude is changing hands at $81 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $78, with both benchmarks down nearly 11% this month. Currency market reaction to the weekend’s ceasefire agreement has been surprisingly muted, with most major pairs moving less than a third of a percent since the news broke. To some extent, this reflects...

Oil prices have tumbled and the dollar is trading near a two-week low after Washington and Tehran announced they had reached a tentative agreement to pause the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who brokered the final round of talks, revealed the deal, President Trump announced it on social media, and semi-official Iranian media outlets confirmed it. The full terms remain undisclosed, but the broad outlines are becoming clear: the US will relax sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemicals, both sides will lift their shipping blockades, and negotiations on Iran’s...

Good morning. Oil prices are falling and risk assets are climbing after signals from both Washington and Tehran suggested the two sides are closing in on an agreement to pause hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to energy shipments. After President Trump yesterday announced he had cancelled scheduled strikes on Iran, saying the final points of a deal had been approved by all parties, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency this morning published a 14-point draft “memorandum of understanding” it said was under discussion with the United States. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate are down nearly 3%—bringing weekly losses...