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EUR

02 Oct 2026

US payrolls disappoint, easing upward pressure on yields and the dollar

The US job creation engine decelerated sharply in September, adding to market bets on a short pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign in October. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 29,000 jobs were added in the month—representing an undershoot relative to the 90,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 60,000 positions, bringing the three-month average pace of job creation down to 51,000, from 71,000 ahead of the update. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.2% percent from 4.1% in August, and average hourly earnings climbed just 0.1% month-over-month, slowing from the 0.3%...

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01 Oct 2026

Bond market signals

• Bond yields. Bonds still in the driver’s seat. Worries about government debt widen spreads across Europe. EUR lower, USD higher. AUD still on backfoot.• Data pulse. US ISM in ‘expansionary’ territory. Eurozone CPI & US jobs report due tonight. More volatility in interest rate expectations & FX likely. Global Trends Gyrations in global bond markets continue to be front of mind for investors. Bond yields were volatile overnight and this flowed through to other asset classes. The combination of inflation pressures (brent crude rose ~5.2% to US$103/brl), central bank rate hike expectations, greater government bond supply due to high/rising...

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01 Oct 2026

Bond selloff worsens, pushing currency markets out of trading ranges

Good morning. Government borrowing costs are pushing to multi-decade highs around the world this morning as a brutal selloff in bond markets intensifies. Ten-year Treasury yields are up 0.04 percentage points to 5.34%, their highest levels since 2002, Japanese bonds are going for the most since the mid-nineties, and rates in most other advanced economies are edging past thresholds last touched ahead of the global financial crisis in 2008. Global oil benchmarks are climbing once again, and the dollar is outperforming all its major peers as rate differentials widen, pushing currency markets into deeply-oversold technical territory. We don’t have a...

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30 Sep 2026

Pressure points

• Shaky markets. Long end US bond yields continue to rise. US equities slip back again. USD firmer. AUD & NZD on backfoot. AUD at late-July levels.• Macro pulse. Expectations for a back-to-back RBA hike trimmed. But risk remains. US ISM & jobs report in focus over the next few days. Global Trends Underlying risk sentiment remains shaky with the upswing in long end bond yields still front of mind for investors. US equities failed to hold on to modest early session gains generated by downward revisions to the US PCE deflator (the US Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and a...

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30 Sep 2026

Dollar retreats after US inflation slows

Good morning. Front-end Treasury yields are slumping, equities are rallying, and the dollar is retreating after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed by less than expected in August, making it more difficult to justify hiking rates in the months ahead. Underlying price growth decelerated last month. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2% from the prior month, undershooting market forecasts for a 0.28% increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth slowed to 3.0% from 3.3% in July, well below the consensus 3.28% estimate. The overall personal...

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