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03 Nov 2026

Dollar weakens as Democrats head for blue sweep

Donald Trump is set to spend the final two years of his presidency facing unified Congressional opposition. With results still coming in, major broadcasters are giving Democrats greater than 95% odds of flipping both the House and the Senate in today’s midterm elections. Investors had anticipated a Republican defeat. Data ahead of the vote showed Donald Trump with the lowest approval rating of any president heading into a midterm election since modern polling began, as voter concerns about rising living costs, worsening political corruption, and the war in the Middle East outweighed unease about a Democratic lurch to the left....

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03 Nov 2026

RBA moves again, but is that it?

• Push/pull forces. Rebound in tech stocks boosted US equities. US mid-term elections in focus today. Potential for bursts of USD volatility over period ahead.• RBA hike. RBA raised rates to 4.85%, high since 2008. AUD slips back. Worsening growth outlook & split RBA vote suggests hiking phase may be over. Global Trends There have been a few intermittent gyrations across markets over the past few sessions as macro and geopolitical factors washed through. On net, a tentative revival of the AI trade boosted US equities overnight (S&P500 +0.3%, NASDAQ +0.8%). Bond yields ticked up (US 10yr +5bps to ~4.96%),...

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31 Oct 2026

Week Ahead Market Brief: November 2 -6

Good morning, and happy Halloween. Currency and government bond markets are holding steady after a week in which monetary and fiscal policymakers largely delivered on expectations: the Bank of Canada raised rates; the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all held; and in Britain, Chancellor Healey delivered a well-telegraphed, fiscally moderate Budget that kept investors onside with Andy Burnham’s government. Most major currency pairs look largely range-bound, with measures of expected volatility remaining remarkably subdued – including at the one-week horizon – suggesting that participants expect more of the same over the coming days. The...

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29 Oct 2026

ECB keeps tightening expectations aloft

The European Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected this morning, but the accompanying communications helped investors calibrate policy expectations for the year ahead. The statement itself was fairly anodyne. Officials reiterated that they were not committed to any particular rate path and would continue to take a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. They acknowledged that a larger and longer-lasting energy shock, together with its indirect and second-round effects, was likely to push inflation higher and growth lower. But they also said that “underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far and wages do not show a material response at this stage”,...

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29 Oct 2026

US growth accelerates but remains narrow, leaving monetary policy expectations almost unchanged

The world’s biggest economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, lifted by resilient consumer spending and soaring business investment, largely driven by the artificial intelligence buildout. Inflation-adjusted US gross domestic product increased an annualised 3.4% pace in the three months ending in September after rising 2.2% in the prior quarter, according to an initial estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg had, on average, expected the economy to grow at a 3.2% rate. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a widely-watched measure of underlying demand—advanced 4.9%, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter....

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