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EUR

30 Sep 2026

Pressure points

• Shaky markets. Long end US bond yields continue to rise. US equities slip back again. USD firmer. AUD & NZD on backfoot. AUD at late-July levels.• Macro pulse. Expectations for a back-to-back RBA hike trimmed. But risk remains. US ISM & jobs report in focus over the next few days. Global Trends Underlying risk sentiment remains shaky with the upswing in long end bond yields still front of mind for investors. US equities failed to hold on to modest early session gains generated by downward revisions to the US PCE deflator (the US Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and a...

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30 Sep 2026

Dollar retreats after US inflation slows

Good morning. Front-end Treasury yields are slumping, equities are rallying, and the dollar is retreating after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure climbed by less than expected in August, making it more difficult to justify hiking rates in the months ahead. Underlying price growth decelerated last month. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2% from the prior month, undershooting market forecasts for a 0.28% increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth slowed to 3.0% from 3.3% in July, well below the consensus 3.28% estimate. The overall personal...

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29 Sep 2026

Dollar powers higher as rate differentials widen

Good morning. The dollar is climbing, supported by high oil prices and Treasury yields near their highest levels since 2007. Crude benchmarks are giving back some of their gains as Saudi Arabia ramps up flows through its repaired East-West pipeline, but Brent is still trading around $105 a barrel as talks to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz show no signs of progress. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding around 5.21% after briefly touching 5.27% in yesterday’s session. Widening rate differentials are dominating currency markets, lifting the dollar against all its major counterparts and wrong-footing...

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29 Sep 2026

RBA: once more, with feeling

The RBA has acted on its ‘hawkish’ comments and announced another 25bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting. After delivering a rapid-fire recalibration in rates earlier in the year and then being on hold since May, the nervousness of RBA officials about inflation, coupled with domestic data related to prices, and another wave of upward pressure from global forces meant today’s move was anticipated. Although the ‘unanimous’ Board vote was a bit of a surprise. According to the RBA “inflation remains elevated”, some of the “upside risks flagged in August are materializing”, and policymakers remain focused on “ensuring that high...

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28 Sep 2026

Iran breakdown adds impetus to yield moves

Happy Monday. Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is holding near a two-month high after back-channel negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed once again, leaving markets grappling with renewed inflation risks and bracing for a heavy week of data releases. Energy prices are edging higher, adding to inflation pressure and bolstering expectations for tighter monetary policy. Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though he claimed negotiations would resume this week; Tehran, for its part, showed no sign of scaling back its demands. Front-month Brent futures are trading for almost...

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