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EUR

Dollar powers higher as conflict stretches on

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure landed in line with expectations in January, but left markets mostly unmoved, given that it predated the Iran conflict and was stale on arrival. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.4 percent from the prior month, accelerating slightly to 3.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, matching economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index climbed 0.3 percent relative to the prior month, and was up 2.8 percent from a year ago, down slightly from December’s 2.9 percent pace. Personal income rose 0.4...

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Oil prices still dictating terms

• Oil jolt. Another jump in oil prices weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, USD firmer. NZD weaker. AUD underperforms after its strong run.• Twists & turns. Markets pricing a supply risk premium in oil. More volatility likely. RBA next week with chances of a rate hike now sitting at ~70%. Global Trends Middle East developments continue to be in the driver’s seat. Sentiment remained negative overnight with the jump in oil prices dampening the market mood. Brent crude oil is back above ~US$101/brl, a ~8.5% lift from where it was tracking yesterday, and ~74% above levels it was at in...

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Stale data shows US inflation pressures easing to a five-year low

Inflation slowed in the United States last month—before the war in Iran sent oil prices spiralling higher and triggered a sharp reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected policy path. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2 percent in February from the prior month, decelerating slightly from January’s 0.2-percent increase, and rising 2.46 percent over the same period last year—marking a five-year low. This was in line with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a...

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Oil volatility & AUD outperforms

• Oil swings. Pull-back in oil prices has supported risk sentiment. Will it last? Situation in Middle East remains fluid. More volatility likely over period ahead.• RBA Hawks. AUD/USD at top of its range. RBA Dep. Gov ‘hawkish’ yesterday. Will it move next week? More than 2 hikes now priced in by September. Global Trends After a torrid end to last week and negative start on Monday sentiment has improved over the past few days. Volatility has continued with the situation in the Middle East still tricky to navigate. However, while there are still underlying issues in place traders (as...

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Markets poised to unwind war premium as Trump signals Iran endgame

Crude oil benchmarks are under intense selling pressure and currency markets are reversing direction after US president Donald Trump told CBS News “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”. Trump said Iran had made a “big mistake” in choosing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba to be the country’s next supreme leader, warning “I don’t know if it’s going to last. I think they made a mistake,” but stopped short of repeating the sort of regime change demands made earlier in the US-Israeli campaign against Iran. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles...

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