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EUR

09 Jan 2026

Fall in US unemployment rate boosts dollar

The US economy generated fewer jobs than anticipated, but the unemployment rate declined last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of monetary easing over the course of 2026. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 50,000 jobs were added in December, undershooting a consensus forecast set around the 70,000 mark, and the previous two months were revised down by 76,000 positions. On a full-year basis, the economy added an average 48,600 jobs per month, marking the worst performance outside the early-aughts dot-com collapse or a recession in the last 25 years. The unemployment rate—arguably the most...

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08 Jan 2026

Mixed data supports dollar in countdown to tomorrow’s payrolls report

Happy Thursday. The dollar is extending its advance for a third session after yesterday’s data underscored the US economy’s resilience, denting bearish conviction. Most major currency pairs remain rangebound, with the pound, euro and yen all holding broadly neutral technical positions against the greenback. Treasury yields are slightly higher, while equity markets are set to open a bit lower as investors weigh the Trump administration’s latest threats to intervene in the housing and defence sectors. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report delivered more evidence of a cooling in demand for workers, but layoffs remained low and the quits...

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07 Jan 2026

Markets turn data-driven

Good morning, and feel free to hit the snooze button. Financial markets are back to ignoring geopolitical headlines, with most major currency pairs exhibiting rangebound behaviour, Treasury yields flatlining, and equity futures setting up for an incremental retreat at the open. Investors are ignoring the latest threats against Greenland from the White House*, and are downplaying signs of growing friction between China and Japan—at least outside regional indices. Measures of implied volatility in foreign exchange markets are holding near cycle lows. The euro is trading on a slightly weaker footing after a bloc-wide inflation report showed price growth easing toward...

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06 Jan 2026

Currency markets stall as geopolitical narratives fade

Good morning. Foreign exchange markets are giving back the weekend’s moves as Venezuela-related geopolitical concerns recede, shifting attention to US macro conditions. The trade-weighted dollar is moving sideways after a restrained round trip, while traditional havens—the yen and Swiss franc—are coming under light selling pressure, leaving the British pound and Australian dollar slightly ahead. Ten-year Treasury yields are steady near 4.17 per cent, equity futures are pointing to a flat open, and cross-asset implied volatility remains subdued. Many of the biggest oil majors saw share prices rise yesterday, especially after Donald Trump suggested that the US might subsidise their efforts...

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05 Jan 2026

Markets largely shrug off Venezuela risks, safe haven flows rise slightly

Global markets are taking the latest surge in geopolitical risk largely in stride after the United States attacked Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. A mild flight to safety is lifting the dollar, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc against their risk-sensitive rivals, Treasury yields are down slightly, and both of the major crude benchmarks—Brent and West Texas Intermediate—are trading slightly lower. The Mexican peso is off around 0.7 percent after Donald Trump said the US will have to “do something” about drug shipments from the country. From a mechanical standpoint, the global macro backdrop looks essentially...

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