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EUR

28 Sep 2026

Iran breakdown adds impetus to yield moves

Happy Monday. Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is holding near a two-month high after back-channel negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed once again, leaving markets grappling with renewed inflation risks and bracing for a heavy week of data releases. Energy prices are edging higher, adding to inflation pressure and bolstering expectations for tighter monetary policy. Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though he claimed negotiations would resume this week; Tehran, for its part, showed no sign of scaling back its demands. Front-month Brent futures are trading for almost...

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24 Sep 2026

Markets still on shaky ground

• Jittery markets. Oil prices rose again, as did bond yields. Risk sentiment remains fragile. USD firmer. AUD & NZD still under pressure.• Global pulse. RBA expected to hike rates on Tuesday. China PMIs, US PCE & US jobs report on the radar next week. More market volatility likely. Global Trends Familiar themes continue to be in the market driver’s seat with the mix of elevated oil prices, inflation risks, and rising bond yields continuing to dampen the mood. Oil was volatile on the back of negative and positive US/Iran related news flow with skirmishes in the region offset by...

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24 Sep 2026

Soaring yields strain global currency markets

Good morning. The dollar is sitting near a two-month high after Treasury yields posted their biggest single-day jump since the market convulsions that followed last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements. With the exception of the Swiss franc, every major currency is down almost 1% against the greenback this week. Investors were wrongfooted yesterday when S&P Global’s purchasing-managers’ index showed US business activity growing at its fastest pace in five years in September. According to the typically-humdrum second-tier release, output across the manufacturing and services sectors hit its highest levels since July 2021. The manufacturing index jumped to 57, its best...

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23 Sep 2026

Bond blow up

• Risk off. Inflation worries from rising oil prices & a potential US diesel export ban generated another jump in bond yields. USD firmer. AUD & NZD weaker.• Global forces. Australian jobs data due today. But global forces more in focus for the AUD. RBA likely to hike next week but growth slowdown is looming. Global Trends Global markets hit an air pocket overnight. A combination of factors we have been calling out such as disruptions to refined petroleum products, renewed inflation worries, rising bond yields, and the negative implications for global activity down the track generated a bout of...

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23 Sep 2026

Dollar steamroller gains momentum

Good morning. The dollar is on course for a fifth consecutive daily gain as a hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve’s expected policy path rolls on. Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin yesterday joined many of his colleagues in suggesting that repeated supply shocks could endanger the central bank’s price-stability mandate, and warning that further tightening may be needed. Markets are now putting the odds of an October hike at more than 50%—with a total of three moves priced in by next June—and rate differentials have tilted further against all of the dollar’s major rivals, contributing to losses in spot markets....

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