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EUR

Markets go quiet ahead of US inflation update

Good morning. The dollar is edging lower and trading ranges are narrowing across currency markets ahead of the personal consumption expenditures report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—at 8:30. Evidence of resilient underlying price pressures might reignite the dollar’s rally—or a softer reading could open a wider reappraisal of the higher-for-longer policy expectations that have driven the currency’s outperformance over the past week. Equity markets are setting up for gains at the open after a blowout forecast from Micron restored confidence in the artificial intelligence boom. The memory-chip maker provided a quarterly revenue outlook well above analyst estimates, sending its shares...

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AUD under pressure

• Shaky ground. A bout of risk aversion has washed through markets the past few days. US equities lose ground. USD firmer. AUD down near ~$0.6900.• Macro pulse. US PCE deflator out tonight. Australian jobs report due today. We think the cross-currents point to more downside risks for the AUD. Global Trends Markets have been on edge for the past few days with a bout of risk aversion washing through. Equities have fallen back. The US S&P500 has lost ground for three straight sessions, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming. The NASDAQ has declined by ~4% so far this week, however...

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Dollar keeps steamrolling forward

Good morning. The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a sixteen-month high, Treasury yields are slipping, and US equity futures are rebounding after a steep technology-led selloff earlier in the week. Oil prices are slipping as markets brace for the release of millions of barrels in pent-up supply. Physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to resume as tankers get underway and a US waiver on Iranian exports takes effect, pushing prices on floating cargoes lower. Front-month Brent futures are trading near $75 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $71—roughly 25% above pre-war levels, but down sharply from...

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Dollar climbs against a rapidly-worsening risk backdrop

Good morning. The dollar is advancing against all of its major peers, driven by a Federal Reserve that has turned far more hawkish, and a deterioration in risk appetite as technology stocks retreat. Last week’s abrupt pivot from the Federal Reserve is still rippling across markets, and confounding the early-2026 consensus for a weaker dollar. After a series of stronger-than-expected data releases and evidence that inflation pressures are broadening, nine of 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee submitted projections indicating they expect to raise rates by year-end, and markets are putting 90% odds on a move by September....

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Rate differentials overwhelm other drivers in keeping dollar aloft

Good morning. The dollar is holding near a one-year high and Treasury yields are climbing even as oil prices fall another 2%, with investors returning from the holiday weekend to find that hawkish signals from last week’s Federal Reserve meeting are overwhelming the terms-of-trade effects that had dominated currency markets since the war began. With rate differentials having tilted sharply in the dollar’s favour since newly-installed Fed chair Kevin Warsh let the hawks control the early narrative, most major currencies—including the euro, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar—are down roughly 1.5% against the greenback in the past five...

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