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EUR

15 Jun 2026

Another ceasefire deal. Now what?

• US/Iran news. Oil fell & equities rose on the back of US/Iran news. FX more muted reflecting the uncertainty & macro challenges that remain.• Event radar. China data due today. BoJ expected to hike rates & RBA predicted to hold. US Fed later this week, the first meeting for new Chair Warsh. Global Trends It has been a relatively upbeat start to the week with markets reacting somewhat positively to the news that a deal has (finally) been struck between the US/Iran. It isn’t a final deal, rather only a Memorandum of Understanding for a 60-day ‘ceasefire’ that will...

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15 Jun 2026

Oil and the dollar slide on Iran deal, risk assets rally

Oil prices have tumbled and the dollar is trading near a two-week low after Washington and Tehran announced they had reached a tentative agreement to pause the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who brokered the final round of talks, revealed the deal, President Trump announced it on social media, and semi-official Iranian media outlets confirmed it. The full terms remain undisclosed, but the broad outlines are becoming clear: the US will relax sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemicals, both sides will lift their shipping blockades, and negotiations on Iran’s...

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12 Jun 2026

US-Iran deal hopes lift global asset prices

Good morning. Oil prices are falling and risk assets are climbing after signals from both Washington and Tehran suggested the two sides are closing in on an agreement to pause hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to energy shipments. After President Trump yesterday announced he had cancelled scheduled strikes on Iran, saying the final points of a deal had been approved by all parties, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency this morning published a 14-point draft “memorandum of understanding” it said was under discussion with the United States. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate are down nearly 3%—bringing weekly losses...

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11 Jun 2026

Let’s make a deal (again)

• US/Iran. Latest reversal by President Trump boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, oil & bond yields fell. USD weaker. AUD rebounds after a torrid run.• Macro pulse. Energy/supply-chain disruption impacts only just starting to show. ECB raised rates overnight. RBA, BoJ, BoE, & US Fed in focus next week. Global Trends Middle East related headlines have been in the driver’s seat overnight with the (latest) reversal by President Trump generating a turnaround in sentiment. After proclaiming yesterday that the US will attack Iran “very hard” President Trump cancelled strikes and claimed an agreement to end hostilities could be signed...

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11 Jun 2026

Dollar advances as rate differentials remain positive

Good morning. The dollar is trading on a stronger footing ahead of a producer price report that could lend further support. Firmness in the components that feed into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure—airfares, healthcare, financial services and insurance—might lift expectations for the core personal consumption expenditures deflator, due later this month, toward the 3.3% mark, reinforcing the case for tightening. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory were ultimately left unchanged by yesterday’s inflation report. Sharply higher gas prices were the primary driver, with energy accounting for more than 60% of the monthly rise—enough to keep headline inflation moving...

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