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CNY

Euro tumbles on weaker private-sector outlook, rate differentials tilt back toward the dollar

It won’t have the self-aware irony of Oppenheimer or the apocalyptic scenes of the Barbie movie, but the week ahead should provide plenty of entertainment for currency market participants. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are each expected to raise rates by a quarter point and the Bank of Japan is seen holding pat, but markets could move dramatically if policymakers deliver consensus-busting guidance on their future intentions. The dollar is building on last week’s gains relative to its biggest rivals after a raft of European purchasing manager indices provided clear evidence of a profound slowdown, and global yields are coming...

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A busy week ahead

• Firmer USD. The USD has continued to claw back ground. The AUD has remained on the backfoot and is now ~2.4% below its mid-July high.• Busy week. Locally, Q2 CPI (Weds) & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, the US Fed (Thurs), ECB (Thurs) & BoJ (Fri) meet.• More AUD pressure? On net, we think the upcoming events/data could give the USD some more support, with AUD headwinds still in place. Markets had a quiet end to last week. But things could heat up this week with a string of major data points and central bank meetings on the...

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USD revival continues

• Stronger USD. US jobless claims declined, another sign the labour market is still tight. US bond yields rose, supporting the USD.• AUD round trip. The AUD’s Australian labour force & stronger CNH induced gains unwound overnight. AUD a bit firmer on the crosses.• Next week. Q2 AU CPI (26 July) could make or break the case for an August RBA hike. US Fed, ECB, & BoJ policy decisions also on the schedule. A more cautious tone across markets, with a round of disappointing tech-sector earnings results and ongoing signs of tight labour market conditions rattling nerves as it points...

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Australian labour market: still on solid ground

Another month, another positive surprise in the Australian labour force lottery. ~32,600 jobs were added in June, led by further strength in full-time employment (+39,300). The positive run means the employment-to-population ratio remains at a record high (64.5%), with the unemployment rate holding steady at a downwardly revised 3.5%. Unemployment is just above its ~50-year lows. Other metrics like underemployment (now 6.4% compared to an average of 8.5% in the years before COVID) and hours worked show that the labour market is still chugging along. Conditions remain tight and hiring demand has (so far) moved in step with the jump...

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Still solid US retail spending

• Mixed fortunes. Equities higher, while European bond yields fell after the ECB’s Knot watered down future rate hike expectations.• US data. Headline retail sales a bit softer, but the control group (which feeds into US GDP) was stronger. We expect another Fed hike next week.• NZ CPI. Annual headline inflation stepped down. Inflation is past its peak & NZ growth is slowing. We see AUD/NZD moving higher over the medium-term. Diverging trends across markets. Solid earnings results and decent US retail sales data (see below) has helped underpin equities. The lift in bank and artificial intelligence linked stocks pushed...

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