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CNY

30 Oct 2023

Traders exit safe havens ahead of busy week

Markets are unwinding risk haven trades this morning, following a pattern established over the last several weekends, with Gaza-related geopolitical exposures forcing traders to square positions before each Friday close, only to reopen them each Monday. With Israeli forces advancing more cautiously than had been feared, oil prices are down, gold is coming under selling pressure, and equity futures are edging higher. The dollar is broadly softening against its major counterparts – including the Canadian dollar – but ten-year Treasury yields are again pushing past the 4.85-percent mark as investors brace for a tumultuous week in fixed income markets. The...

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25 Oct 2023

Minding the gap, traders buy the dollar

The dollar remains firm and Treasury yields are ticking higher after yesterday’s sentiment survey data highlighted a yawning performance gap between the American economy and its global counterparts. A series of purchasing manager indices released by S&P Global showed the US as the only major economy remaining in expansionary territory in early October, with composite measures for the euro area, UK, and Japan pointing to further contraction. We’re not sure the dollar will be acting as the only port in the storm for long. Under-the-hood details suggest inflation pressures are now running at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target,...

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24 Oct 2023

Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

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19 Oct 2023

US Fed still proceeding carefully

• Market divergence. Equities under pressure, oil & gold higher. Long end yields rose, but the US 2yr rate fell as Fed rate hike bets were pared back.• Fed speak. Chair Powell reiterated his ‘cautious’ stance, disappointing recently built up expectations. The USD lost some ground after he spoke.• AUD vol. AUD has traded in a ~1% range. AU jobs data mixed, but conditions still tight. CPI next week. This could make or break the case for another RBA hike. Markets continue to be whipped around with Middle East developments, equity earnings results, and comments by US Fed Chair Powell...

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18 Oct 2023

Will Fed Chair Powell change his tune?

• Shaky sentiment. Renewed market wobbles as Middle East tensions were compounded by higher bond yields. Stocks fell & the USD was a little firmer.• AUD vol. AUD whipped around. Gains on the back of the better than expected China data & ‘hawkish’ tone from the RBA unwound overnight.• Upcoming events. AU jobs report released today. US jobless claims are due tonight, but more focus will be on a speech by Fed Chair Powell. Some renewed wobbles in markets overnight with Middle East tensions compounded by another move up in bond yields. Stocks retreated (US S&P500 -1.3%), while oil (WTI...

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