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CNY

12 Aug 2024

Data flow set to heat up

• Quiet start. Subdued start to the new week. US equities consolidated, bond yields slipped back. Commodities firmer. This helped the AUD drift higher.• Data flow. UK jobs & US PPI due today. US inflation, RBNZ meeting, & UK CPI out tomorrow. Will the US PPI/CPI show moderating inflation pressures?• AU data. Q2 wages & business conditions in focus today. Wages drive services inflation. The monthly Australian jobs report out on Thursday. In contrast to the panic sell-off across markets last Monday it was a typical quiet start to the week yesterday. US equities consolidated (NASDAQ +0.2%, S&P500 flat), bond...

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11 Aug 2024

Busy week ahead

• Consolidation. Quiet end to a volatile week. Equities continue to recover. Bond yields slip back. USD treading water. AUD below 200-day moving average.• Divergence. RBA pricing still stands out. First RBA cut factored in by Feb. By this point the US Fed & RBNZ are assumed to have cut by ~120-140bps.• Event radar. Several important releases this week including US CPI/retail sales, China data batch, UK jobs/inflation, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. It was a rather quiet and uneventful end to a volatile week on Friday. The recovery in equities continued with the US S&P500 and Japanese Nikkei edging...

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05 Aug 2024

Global Financial Markets Crack, Volatility Surges

A long period of unusual calm in financial markets was shattered over the weekend, when the Japanese stock market imploded and cross-border carry trades unwound in a violent manner. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down 12.4 percent—marking its worst selloff since the “Black Monday” crash in 1987—and the yen is trading near the 142 threshold after having hit 161 less than two weeks ago. Volatility expectations are soaring. Safe-haven Treasury yields are plummeting, with the policy-sensitive two-year returning less than 3.7 percent—down from 4.4 percent early last week—and the ten year seeing similar dynamics. Futures prices show the Nasdaq headed...

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01 Aug 2024

Risk wobbles return

• Risk off. Weaker US data dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD ticked up, with cyclical assets like the AUD under pressure.• BoE cut. BoE delivered its first cut of the cycle. Further easing likely. US rate cut expectations have ramped up. More than 4 moves priced in by January.• US jobs. US jobs report released tonight. A softer print could drag US yields even lower. But would this generate a negative or positive market spillover? The positive tone in markets reversed overnight with concerns about the economic environment in the US dampening sentiment. US and European equities...

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31 Jul 2024

US rate cuts coming into view

• Positive vibes. Cooling US labour market conditions & US Fed hints that a rate cut in September is possible boosted risk sentiment & weighed on the USD.• AUD reversal. AUD recouped its post AU CPI losses. Core inflation still a long way from home. RBA hike risks extinguished but cuts still some time away.• BoJ moves. Larger than anticipated BoJ rate rise. Policy divergence is reviving the JPY. USD/JPY back below 150. AUD/JPY ~10% below July peak. A positive night for risk assets with signs of a cooling US labour market, moderating wage pressures, and signals from the US...

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