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CNY

17 Jan 2024

Monetary Easing Hopes Fade

The dollar is holding near a one-month high and risk appetites are deteriorating as investors ratchet monetary easing expectations down in the face of a concerted jawboning campaign from central bankers. Odds on a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting are down to less than 60 percent after Governor Christopher Waller warned policymakers would be “methodical and careful” in lowering borrowing costs. In a speech given yesterday morning, Waller disappointed investors expecting a repeat of previous rate-cutting cycles by saying “With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 percent, I...

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16 Jan 2024

No need to rush

• USD rebound. The rise in US yields on the back of comments by the Fed’s Waller has supported the USD. AUD is under ~$0.66 for the first time in a month.• Slow & steady. Waller noted cuts shouldn’t be rushed. March too soon to start, but markets already pricing in a slower & shallower cutting cycle than in the past.• Volatility. China data released today, US retail sales due tonight, & the Australian jobs report is out tomorrow. The data flow points to more volatility. A bout of market turbulence has come through with a jump in US bond...

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16 Jan 2024

Dollar Advances As Yields Climb

With ten-year Treasury yields poking above the 4 percent threshold once again, the dollar is the only outperformer on the currency league tables this morning. The greenback is trading near a one-month high, posting gains against all of its major counterparts as risk appetite turns more subdued ahead of a speech from formerly-hawkish Federal Reserve Governor Waller at 11:00. The British pound is roughly -0.7 percent weaker after wage growth slowed sharply, supporting bets on an early pivot to easing from the Bank of England. Regular pay growth excluding bonuses cooled to 6.6 percent year over year in the three...

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10 Jan 2024

Waiting on the US CPI

• Mixed markets. US equities rebounded & bond yields ticked up. Oil prices dipped. In FX, there were generally limited net moves. AUD near $0.67.• AU inflation. Headline inflation decelerated more than expected. But things are still a long way from target. RBA to lag its peers when rate cuts come through.• US CPI. December inflation data released tonight. Headline inflation forecast to nudge up, but core CPI predicted to slow. The data can generate USD volatility. Ahead of the US CPI release markets put in a mixed performance overnight. On the one side, equities bounced back with a tech...

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08 Jan 2024

Hold the line

• FX consolidation. Quiet start to the week across FX. USD consolidated with AUD treading water. US CPI the major focal point this week (released Fri AEDT).• Mixed markets. A tech sector rally boosted US equities. Oil prices fell on softer demand signals, & bond yields lost some ground.• AU data. November retail sales due today. Black Friday sales expected to have boosted spending. Tomorrow the monthly CPI indicator is released. It has been a quiet start to the week for FX markets with the major currencies range bound over the past 24hrs. The USD index has held onto its...

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