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Risk Sentiment Thaws on Chinese Recovery Efforts

Risk-sensitive assets are seeing a modest sentiment boost this morning as Chinese authorities move to stem the bleeding in stock markets, with top officials reportedly preparing to brief President Xi Jinping on their efforts. Onshore share indices moved higher overnight after the government imposed new restrictions on short-sellers, the state-owned Central Huijin Investment Ltd. said it would add more exchange-traded funds to its holdings, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission pledged “greater efforts” in encouraging buying from institutional investors. US equity futures are setting up for a stronger open, ten-year Treasury yields are inching lower after a circa-28 basis point...

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Dollar Steamrolls Higher on Crumbling Rate Cut Bets 

Currency markets are retreating in the face of yet another dollar onslaught after Jerome Powell again warned markets not to expect a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, adding to Friday’s hotter-than-expected non-farm payrolls report in driving yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped almost 7 basis points higher and odds on a May rate cut fell to 70 percent when Chair Powell doubled down on comments made during last week’s post-decision press conference in an interview with CBS News ‘60 Minutes’ programme. In the appearance, aired last night, Powell warned that it was unlikely officials would reach the...

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US jobs report on the radar

• Push-pull. US equities rose, bond yields dipped & the USD reversed course as markets focused on the looming easing cycle. AUD traded in a 1.1% range.• BoE holds. BoE mirrored the US Fed. Reference to further tightening was removed, but policymakers still not at the point to cut rates. GBP firmer.• US jobs. US labour market report in focus tonight. The data may generate another burst of FX volatility as it can influence US interest rate expectations. Another busy session overnight with participants also continuing to digest yesterday’s US Fed meeting. US equities bounced back (S&P500 +1.1%) with a...

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Traders Turn Cautious Amid Event Risk Onslaught

Markets are beginning to wake from their long slumber. With month-end flows, the Treasury’s Quarterly Rebalancing announcement, the Employment Cost Index, and a Federal Reserve decision in the docket for the day ahead, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is up – classic signs of risk aversion. China’s manufacturing sector remained mired in a downturn in January, suggesting that half-hearted government stimulus efforts are failing to generate enough domestic demand to offset weaker export markets. The National Bureau of Statistics’ official manufacturing purchasing manager index rose slightly to 49.2 in...

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Treasury Funding Rally Fades as Event Risks Loom

Sentiment is stabilizing in financial markets after a late-Monday surge that saw equity indices jump, Treasury yields fall, and risk-sensitive currencies outperform the dollar. The rally was touched off when the US Treasury said it would need to borrow less than previously anticipated, essentially soaking up less market liquidity than had been feared. According to an updated estimate, marketable borrowing should total $760 billion in the first quarter, unexpectedly undershooting the $816 billion projected at the end of October amid higher-than-anticipated starting cash balances and an improvement in “net fiscal flows” (likely higher tax revenues). Investors remain wary however –...

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