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CNY

11 Feb 2024

US inflation & AU jobs in focus

• Positive tone. The lack of meaningful revisions to the US CPI seasonal factors supported sentiment. US equities hit another record. The AUD edged up.• US focus. US CPI & retail sales this week. Inflation projected to slow with headline CPI set to slip below 3%pa. This may take some of the heat out of the USD.• Event radar. AU jobs report released Thursday with employment forecast to rebound. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks. UK GDP & CPI also due this week. An upbeat tone across markets on Friday with participants and Federal Reserve policymakers breathing a sigh of relief that...

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08 Feb 2024

Central bankers continue to push back

• Mixed markets. Bond yields a bit higher as ECB & Fed officials continue to push back on near-term rate cut bets. USD firmer against JPY & AUD.• RBA speak. Governor Bullock testifies to parliament today. A repeat of this week’s rhetoric expected. This may give the AUD some intra-day support.• US CPI revisions. Revisions to seasonal factors for the US inflation data released tonight. This caused a stir across markets last year. Will it happen again? A mixed performance across asset classes in what was generally another quiet night when it comes to market news flow. Central bankers hit...

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07 Feb 2024

Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. US equities edged higher, bond yields ticked up slightly, but the USD and other major currencies remained range bound.• Fed speak. More Fed members spoke overnight. But reaction was limited. Market interest rates have adjusted with odds of a March cut whittled down.• AUD turn? AUD tracking below our fair-value estimate. A lot of bad news looks factored in. US inflation, US retail sales, & AU jobs due next week. Fairly subdued trade in most markets overnight. Given the lack of top tier data releases this is not a surprise. In contrast to European stocks which eased slightly...

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06 Feb 2024

Risk Sentiment Thaws on Chinese Recovery Efforts

Risk-sensitive assets are seeing a modest sentiment boost this morning as Chinese authorities move to stem the bleeding in stock markets, with top officials reportedly preparing to brief President Xi Jinping on their efforts. Onshore share indices moved higher overnight after the government imposed new restrictions on short-sellers, the state-owned Central Huijin Investment Ltd. said it would add more exchange-traded funds to its holdings, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission pledged “greater efforts” in encouraging buying from institutional investors. US equity futures are setting up for a stronger open, ten-year Treasury yields are inching lower after a circa-28 basis point...

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05 Feb 2024

Dollar Steamrolls Higher on Crumbling Rate Cut Bets 

Currency markets are retreating in the face of yet another dollar onslaught after Jerome Powell again warned markets not to expect a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, adding to Friday’s hotter-than-expected non-farm payrolls report in driving yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped almost 7 basis points higher and odds on a May rate cut fell to 70 percent when Chair Powell doubled down on comments made during last week’s post-decision press conference in an interview with CBS News ‘60 Minutes’ programme. In the appearance, aired last night, Powell warned that it was unlikely officials would reach the...

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