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CNY

10 Dec 2024

Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds could blow harder in 2025

The Chinese renminbi should steadily weaken against the US dollar, and struggle against other currencies such as the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and euro over the next few quarters. In our judgement, the pricing-in and enacting-of US President-elect Trump’s trade policies will likely see a greater risk premium attached to the yuan, given the economic headwinds the protectionist measures may create for an already structurally-unbalanced Chinese economy, which has stumbled through its post-COVID recovery. There’s a lot more to China’s exports than the USShare of China’s goods exports, %December 2013 – October 2024 Headwinds could increase as policymakers attempt to...

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09 Dec 2024

China changes its policy tune

• China bounce. Policymakers in China changed their tone when it comes to policy. Prospect of more stimulus supported assets like the AUD.• RBA focus. No rate change expected from RBA. Will it alter its guidance? A tweak could see the AUD lose some ground.• Event radar. RBA today. Later this week, ECB & BoC meet. US CPI inflation also due, & the China CEWC will be held. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets at the start of the new week with moves that flowed in the wake of Friday nights US jobs data reversing. The catalyst...

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05 Dec 2024

US jobs report in focus

• Marking time. Markets essentially in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. Easing French political concerns support EUR.• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls in focus. Reaction likely to be binary with stronger (weaker) data likely to support (weigh) on the USD.• AUD trends. AUD has clawed back some ground. US jobs report is a near-term risk event. RBA meets on Tuesday. US Fed meets the week after. With little new information to move the dial markets have essentially been in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. European equities ticked higher (EuroStoxx600 +0.4%) while the major...

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04 Dec 2024

Subpar growth weighs on the AUD

• Positive vibes. Equities power ahead. USD treads water. AUD underperforms. US data solid but not spectacular overnight.• AUD tumbles. Weaker than expected GDP weighs on AUD. Growth has slowed across the private sector but the level of activity is still high.• Policy impulse. RBA should hold steady next week. Upcoming US jobs report could impact market pricing for a December Fed rate cut. Global political ructions have continued but the direct market impact has been minimal. In France, as widely expected, a no-confidence vote in Parliament triggered a collapse of the government. France faces a month-end deadline to sort...

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03 Dec 2024

Markets calm despite political turbulence

• Political news. Political developments in South Korea & ongoing issues in France dominated the international news flow the past 24hrs.• Calm markets. However, market spillovers were limited. European equities rose. USD held steady, as did AUD. NZD eased slightly.• AU growth. Q3 GDP released today. Partial data points to a pick up in activity. A ‘soft landing’ looks to be intact. RBA set to lag its global peers. News-wise there has been a lot going on but the geopolitical developments had limited spillover across markets overnight. In South Korea, after months of political deadlock President Yoon stunned the nation...

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