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CNY

12 Dec 2024

Macro trends support the USD

• Macro signals. ECB cut rates again. More moves flagged near-term. Diverging trends with US Fed weigh on EUR. USD firm. AUD whipped around.• AU jobs. Another positive labour market report. Unemployment fell back. Odds of a February RBA move have fallen. Helpful for AUD-crosses.• Central banks. Next week focus will be on China data & central banks. BoE, BoJ, & US Fed meet. Will the US Fed signal fewer cuts in 2025? It has been another busy 24hrs in terms of economic events, although market reactions haven’t been uniform largely due to some of the outcomes failing to match...

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11 Dec 2024

Jobs report in focus today

• Mixed signals. US CPI matched forecasts boosting expectations for a Fed cut next week. US equities rose but so did bond yields. USD firm.• Policy trends. BoC cut by 50bps. But flagged a more measured pace. ECB expected to cut again tonight. Shifting yield spreads remain USD supportive.• AUD impulses. AUD whipped around by newsflow. AU jobs data released today. Short-term AUD reaction to data likely to be binary. It was a busy night in terms of newsflow, however, outside of a jump up in US equities most other markets were well contained with the odd burst of volatility...

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11 Dec 2024

US Inflation Holds Steady, Leaving Fed Easing Bets Intact

Underlying consumer price growth held steady in the United States last month, providing more evidence of a stalling disinflation process, while also giving the Federal Reserve room to continue easing policy at next week’s meeting. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This matched the median consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed...

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10 Dec 2024

RBA rate cuts coming into view

• RBA rhetoric. Changes by the RBA to its guidance weighed on AUD. NZD has gone along for the ride. Odds of a February RBA cut have risen.• Data driven. Data will drive the RBA’s decision. Jobs report released tomorrow. Quarterly CPI out in late-January.• Global macro. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates again tonight. US CPI also due. Sticky core inflation could give the USD more support. Offshore market moves were fairly constrained overnight as participants await the latest read on US inflation (due tonight at 12:30am AEDT). European and US equities dipped with the S&P500 (-0.3%) holding...

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10 Dec 2024

Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds could blow harder in 2025

The Chinese renminbi should steadily weaken against the US dollar, and struggle against other currencies such as the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and euro over the next few quarters. In our judgement, the pricing-in and enacting-of US President-elect Trump’s trade policies will likely see a greater risk premium attached to the yuan, given the economic headwinds the protectionist measures may create for an already structurally-unbalanced Chinese economy, which has stumbled through its post-COVID recovery. There’s a lot more to China’s exports than the USShare of China’s goods exports, %December 2013 – October 2024 Headwinds could increase as policymakers attempt to...

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