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Market Briefing: Markets Stabilize After Yesterday’s Whiplash-Inducing Session

Markets are calming, but remain distinctly depressed after yesterday’s extraordinarily-turbulent session. Ten-year British gilts were yielding more than 4.5 percent and their US equivalents were paying 4 percent before the Bank of England stepped in to “carry out temporary purchases” of long-term bonds, sending rates tumbling back to 4.2 and 3.7 percent, respectively. Trading in the pound remains highly volatile, with the cable interbank rate approaching 1.09 before tumbling this morning when Prime Minister Liz Truss doubled down on her government’s policies in a series of remarkably ill-informed interviews with local BBC radio stations. Asked if she would consider reversing...

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Market Briefing: Fear Grips Financial System as Dollar Climbs and Bank of England Intervenes

With American policymakers issuing this generation’s version of former Treasury Secretary John Connally’s 1971 “the dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem” speech, a surging greenback is crushing all of its major rivals and triggering turmoil across the global financial system. Speaking with reporters yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “with the United States moving faster than many other countries, we’re seeing upward pressure on the dollar and downward pressure on many other foreign currencies,” and “these kinds of developments — which represent a tightening in financial conditions — are part of what’s involved in addressing inflation”. White House...

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Market Briefing: Cable Snaps, Destabilizing Currency Markets

The pound sank like a dinghy in the North Atlantic over the weekend, hitting record lows against the greenback and contributing to a worsening in sentiment across the global financial system. In several interviews, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng seemed to shrug off Friday’s devastating market reaction to the new UK government’s proposed fiscal plans and doubled down on tax cuts, saying there was “more to come”. The sterling-dollar pair — often known as the “cable” — briefly dropped almost 4.7 percent before staging a modest recovery as traders positioned for a response from the central bank. Calls for...

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Market Briefing: Great British Peso Plummets, Dollar Grinds Higher

The British pound is selling off violently – a bit like an emerging market currency – after the government said it would borrow heavily to fund tax cuts and energy price subsidies. In a dramatic pivot away from long-standing fiscal orthodoxy, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng said the United Kingdom would cut income, property, and dividend taxes, abandon limits on banker bonuses, and pour tens of billions of pounds into protecting households from rising gas and electricity prices. Gilt yields jumped by more than a third of a percentage point as investors braced for renewed inflation pressures and worried...

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Market Briefing: Worsening Risk Appetite Pummels Global Currency Markets

With real yields storming higher, the dollar is extending its rally this morning, sending the pound, euro and yen tumbling toward multi-decade lows. Global financial conditions are tightening and traders are bailing out of risk-sensitive assets ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers are expected to deliver 75 basis-point hike and guide terminal rate expectations firmly above the 4.25 percent mark. The British pound is plumbing levels last seen in 1985 after a weak retail sales report exacerbated fears of a deep and prolonged recession. The Office for National Statistics said receipts dropped 1.6 percent between July and...

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