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CNY

15 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Climbs on Big Trouble in Even Bigger China

Evidence of a deep and prolonged slowdown in the Chinese economy is taking a toll on global risk sentiment this morning, with safe haven demand sending the dollar higher amid parched liquidity conditions. Raw materials prices are falling, commodity-linked currencies are on the defensive, and North American equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. Treasury yields are essentially flat as some investors cling to bets on a “soft landing” — in which inflation decelerates but a deep recession is avoided — in the US economy. Consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in early August. According to estimates...

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10 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: A Calm Before the Storm Before the Calm Settles Over Markets

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Investors cut exposures ahead of this morning’s critically-important inflation print, leaving most major currency pairs unchanged in overnight trading. The dollar is modestly weaker, and the Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with two-year yields exceeding their ten-year equivalents by almost 50 basis points – the most since 2000, and a sign that investors expect the economy to fall into a recession. Markets expect inflation pressures to subside somewhat, with the headline measure rising 8.7 percent year-over-year in July, down from 9.1 percent in June. The core measure is seen rising to 6.1 percent from 5.9 percent...

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08 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Turn Wary

Markets seem to have remembered the most fundamental rule in finance this morning: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. The dollar is falling and yields are coming under pressure as traders turn slightly more sceptical on the underlying details and near-term sustainability associated with Friday’s astonishingly-strong jobs numbers, with growth seen decelerating and employment rates expected to soften in coming months. Policy expectations are falling. Implied odds on a 75 basis point move at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are holding near 68 percent, up from 40 percent prior to the release, but down relative to...

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03 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Risk Appetites Return Even as Odds on Fed “Pivot” Fall

Implied volatility is falling and risk-sensitive currencies are recovering after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s aircraft exited Taiwanese airspace without triggering a military response from China. Commodities are firmer, equity indices are marching higher, and safe haven currencies – the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc – are back on the defensive as traders position ahead of what is expected to be a strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Yields shot upward yesterday, staging the fourth-biggest rally in five years as a series of Federal Reserve officials pushed back against markets’ overly-dovish interpretation of last week’s decision. San Francisco president Mary...

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02 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Tensions in Taiwan Strait Trigger Market Turmoil

A worsening in relations between the US and China is driving an exodus from risk-sensitive assets this morning. Military forces on both sides of the Strait are on high alert as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – the third highest-ranking official in the US government – is expected to visit Taiwan in a few hours, defying increasingly-strident Chinese threats. The Swiss franc and dollar are well-bid, and long-term debt instruments are in high demand as investors buy insurance against a mishap and raise odds on further escalation in the “war by other means” between China and the United States. Japan’s yen...

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