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CNY

China Reopening Hopes Lift Markets

March is coming in like a lion, with risk appetite rebounding across asset classes on evidence of a stronger-than-expected recovery in the Chinese economy. The US dollar is in retreat as investors pile into the euro on hopes for stronger exports, and as they buy emerging market currencies on an expected rise in raw materials demand. Major North American equity bourses are setting up for a stronger open even as Treasury yields tick higher. The Canadian dollar is gaining, but continues to lag a broader improvement in the commodity complex. The China reopening trade roared back to life last night...

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Inflation continues to surprise

• Eurozone inflation surprise. Eurozone bond yields jumped up after a run of higher than expected inflation prints.• USD still firm. The USD remains near recent highs, with relative interest rate expectations still in favour of the US.• AUD risk events. Q4 GDP, January inflation, and China PMIs are released today. AUD intra-day volatility should pick up, but will the underlying trend change? Interest rate expectations and bond markets remain in focus, though overnight attention was in Europe rather than the US. Bond yields across the Eurozone rose ~5-8bps as markets re-priced how high the ECB policy rate could end...

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Another US inflation surprise

• Higher US rates. Strong US inflation data generated another repricing in US rate expectations, propelling the USD even higher.• Fed needs to do more. Sticky inflation means the US Fed has more work to do. Positive US data can reinforce the upswing in US yields.• AUD slump. AUD is now ~6% below its early-February peak. Will this weeks Australia/China data provide an offset to the stronger USD? The outlook for US Fed policy continues to drive markets. US rate hike expectations took another leg higher on Friday, pushing US bond yields back up towards their peaks. This in turn...

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Currency Market Sub-Plots Lift Greenback

The dollar is creeping upward as conflicting cross-currents in the foreign exchange markets contrive to keep most majors tightly rangebound. Yields are broadly flat, and equity futures are setting up for a slightly weaker open. Mexico’s Banxico yesterday became the second central bank—after the Reserve Bank of Australia—to defy increasingly-dovish policy expectations, sending the peso soaring by raising rates by half a percentage point in a move that surprised virtually every observer. In a statement accompanying the decision, policymakers said “Given the dynamics of core inflation, on this occasion it is necessary to continue with the magnitude of the reference...

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