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Market Briefing: Cable Snaps, Destabilizing Currency Markets

The pound sank like a dinghy in the North Atlantic over the weekend, hitting record lows against the greenback and contributing to a worsening in sentiment across the global financial system. In several interviews, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng seemed to shrug off Friday’s devastating market reaction to the new UK government’s proposed fiscal plans and doubled down on tax cuts, saying there was “more to come”. The sterling-dollar pair — often known as the “cable” — briefly dropped almost 4.7 percent before staging a modest recovery as traders positioned for a response from the central bank. Calls for...

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Market Briefing: Great British Peso Plummets, Dollar Grinds Higher

The British pound is selling off violently – a bit like an emerging market currency – after the government said it would borrow heavily to fund tax cuts and energy price subsidies. In a dramatic pivot away from long-standing fiscal orthodoxy, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng said the United Kingdom would cut income, property, and dividend taxes, abandon limits on banker bonuses, and pour tens of billions of pounds into protecting households from rising gas and electricity prices. Gilt yields jumped by more than a third of a percentage point as investors braced for renewed inflation pressures and worried...

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Market Briefing: Worsening Risk Appetite Pummels Global Currency Markets

With real yields storming higher, the dollar is extending its rally this morning, sending the pound, euro and yen tumbling toward multi-decade lows. Global financial conditions are tightening and traders are bailing out of risk-sensitive assets ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers are expected to deliver 75 basis-point hike and guide terminal rate expectations firmly above the 4.25 percent mark. The British pound is plumbing levels last seen in 1985 after a weak retail sales report exacerbated fears of a deep and prolonged recession. The Office for National Statistics said receipts dropped 1.6 percent between July and...

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Market Briefing: Tightening Financial Conditions Induce Caution In Currency Markets

Pondering the unbearable weight of massive rate increases, market participants are downgrading economic growth prospects this morning, lifting the dollar and sending the yield curve deeper into inverted territory. Short-term curves are flattening and the difference between 2- and 30-year Treasury rates — often seen as a measure of long-term growth expectations — has reached levels not seen since 2000 as Tuesday’s inflation data drives investors to ramp up bets on a policy-induced slowdown. American producers cut prices again in August, suggesting that consumer inflation could drop in the months ahead. The producer-price index, released yesterday by the Bureau of...

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Market Briefing: Currency Markets Reverse Direction on Narrowing Yield Gaps

The dollar is tumbling as currency traders unwind wagers on ever-widening gaps between the world’s major central banks. With the Bank of Japan inching closer to a shift in policy direction, the European Central Bank making hawkish noises, and an energy price cap reducing pressure on the Bank of England, yield differentials are moving in a more synchronized fashion than in recent months – and evidence of a slowing in the Chinese economy is helping reduce the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. The pound is recovering after new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to hold average household energy bills at no...

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