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CNY

07 May 2023

Risk sentiment recovers

• Improved sentiment. US regional bank share prices bounce back. Data also shows that the US labour market remains tight.• Fed rate expectations. Markets continue to forecast rate cuts by the US Fed from Q3 2023. We think this is misplaced. US CPI released this week.• AUD recovery. Positive risk appetite has supported the AUD. Consumer and business confidence, and the Federal Budget are the local focal points. After some tremors earlier in the week, risk sentiment improved on Friday. Following the sharp falls over previous sessions, US regional banking stocks rebounded strongly, with the banks in focus (PacWest Bancorp...

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30 Apr 2023

All eyes on the central banks

• Mixed signals. Eurozone data undershoots, while the US Employment Cost Index indicates inflation pressures remain strong. China manufacturing PMI dips back into ‘contractionary’ territory.• Central banks in focus. US Fed and ECB expected to hike rates again later this week. We think there are ‘hawkish’ risks given the inflation pulse.• AUD & the RBA. We are forecasting the RBA to remain on hold once again. Weaker China data and diverging policy trends are AUD headwinds. A positive end to April for risk markets with US equity indices rising by 0.7-0.8% on Friday on the back of solid earnings reports,...

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17 Apr 2023

China data in focus

• USD firmer. A further rebound in US bond yields on the back of stronger US data and comments by a Fed official has supported the USD.• China focus. China data, which includes Q1 GDP, released today. Growth should mechanically lift following the end of COVID-zero. But are expectations too high?• AUD range trading. AUD held up in the face of a firmer USD overnight. The China data could generate some AUD volatility today. The rebound in the USD Index has continued, with the USD stronger against the other major currencies over the past 24hrs. EUR has dipped back towards...

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16 Apr 2023

Will the USD recovery continue?

• USD rebound. The lift in US inflation expectations and hawkish Fed comments boosted US interest rate pricing and supported the USD.• AUD falls back. The bounce back in the USD has weighed on the AUD. The China data batch is the main AUD event this week.• AUD/NZD edging higher. NZ CPI inflation released later this week. A result close to consensus should reinforce thinking the RBNZ has reached a rate peak. The USD bounced back on Friday, with Thursday’s losses unwound. US economic data and ‘hawkish’ comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted US interest rate expectations and...

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03 Apr 2023

The AUD’s energy price boost

• Oil spike. OPEC+ production cuts has seen oil prices lift. Oil sensitive currencies like the AUD, CAD, and NOK have outperformed.• USD lower. A weak US ISM manufacturing survey reinforced recession worries. US bond yields reversed course and this weighed on the USD.• AUD lift off. The terms of trade boost from higher energy prices has supported the AUD. RBA meets today. It is a close call, but we think the RBA will pause. A somewhat volatile start to the week for financial markets as investors digested the surprise weekend news that OPEC+ was cutting back oil production and...

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