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CAD

US exceptionalism trade lifts dollar, supports rate expectations across the curve

Risk appetite remains relatively strong after a series of data releases – including today’s spending and inflation numbers – helped bolster bets on a “soft landing” in the US economy that could convince the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at prevailing levels for an extended period. The major North American equity indices are inching higher, Treasury yields are climbing off three-week lows, and commodity prices are enjoying a brief period of respite, even as the dollar – symbol of American economic outperformance – pushes higher against its major counterparts. North America American consumers spent more than expected last month, defying...

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Markets mean-revert into month end

With month-end flows increasing and the week’s major data releases still ahead, the dollar is trapped in a consolidative range, North American equity bourses are setting up for a modestly-stronger opening, and Treasury yields are incrementally lower across the front end of the curve. North America The number of job vacancies per unemployed worker likely held near the 1.6 mark in July, underlining continued tightness in the US labour market. This morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (out at 10 am) is expected to show roughly 9.45 million jobs available in the month, with the quits rate – a proxy...

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Lack of forward guidance from Jackson Hole leaves markets relatively unmoved

The dollar is trading below levels that prevailed ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday appearance at Jackson Hole. Although markets (briefly) appeared to think otherwise, we read the speech as coming in slightly more dovish than expectations, with repeated use of the phrase “proceed carefully” helping put the central bank on a data-dependent footing into the autumn months. Most major equity indices are up and Treasury yields are slightly lower on an essentially-unchanged monetary policy outlook for the US and the euro area. Commodity-linked currencies are recovering from a short-lived rally that unfolded when China launched half-hearted attempts...

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Trading grinds to a halt as central bankers go off to summer camp

Financial markets are in stasis this morning ahead of a series of monetary policy speeches at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Treasury yields are up slightly and equity futures are licking their wounds after yesterday’s buy-on-rumour, sell-on-news dynamic in Nvidia shares saw the major indexes lose altitude. Trade-weighted measures of the dollar are holding near three-month highs as market participants bet Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will deliver a relatively-hawkish “higher for longer” message, followed by a more dovishly-cautious one from the European Central Bank’s Christine Lagarde. Both the euro and pound are oscillating around key technical levels, and modest...

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Artificial intelligence boosts US dollar

Equity futures are kicking upward and the dollar is rising in the run-up to the North American open after Nvidia reported stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings and issued a remarkably-positive sales forecast. With the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 widening the US performance differential relative to global markets, investor demand for the greenback is intensifying – but we note that this could prove dangerous in the months ahead if the sector fails to deliver on its promise. As the corporate raider Carl Icahn once put it, “Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity”....

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