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CAD

24 Jan 2024

Weekly Chartbook, January 24

The Bank of Canada set the stage for rate cuts.  Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, % US growth and rate expectations keep rising. Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, % But other economies might be bottoming.  Composite purchasing manager indices, >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June. M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA Inflation could impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar. Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. USDCAD exchange rate

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24 Jan 2024

Loonie Falls As Bank of Canada Turns Dovish

As had been widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, but language in the accompanying statement, Monetary Policy Report, and prepared comments tilted in a more clearly-dovish direction, helping lift market expectations for rate cuts in the first half of the year. Policymakers attempted to navigate a difficult communications challenge: while acknowledging signs of weakness in the economy and expressing approval of declining inflation pressures, they also sought to avoid repeating last year’s mistake – triggering a sharp rise in home prices and aggregate demand by encouraging an unwarranted easing in...

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24 Jan 2024

Chinese Relief Efforts Boost Sentiment 

An escalation in Chinese stimulus efforts is helping boost global asset prices this morning, driving equity indices, commodity prices, and risk-sensitive currencies higher ahead of the North American open. The greenback is weaker, Treasury yields are slipping, and oil prices are holding steady in still-oversupplied markets. In an unexpected step, the People’s Bank of China announced it would lower the amount of reserves banks need to hold against their deposits for the third time in a year, potentially unlocking roughly 1 trillion yuan in new lending capacity. The move, which comes after a raft of securities purchases by China’s “national...

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23 Jan 2024

Market Moves Run Out of Oomph

After a strong start to the year, rallies in US equity markets and the dollar appear to be nearing exhaustion this morning. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a flat open and the greenback is inching higher on a stabilization in ten-year Treasury yields above the 4.1-percent threshold. The Canadian dollar is drifting lower as traders brace for a cautiously-dovish central bank decision tomorrow. The Japanese yen is modestly stronger after the Bank of Japan left policy settings intact yet signalled a move out of negative rates territory was still in the offing. Policymakers left the short-term benchmark rate at...

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22 Jan 2024

Weekly Chartbook, January 22

US growth and rate expectations keep rising. Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, % The greenback could pop on a Trump victory in New Hampshire. 1-year implied option volatility, at-the-money, 21-day moving average ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June. M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA Inflation might impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar. Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. exchange rates Markets have pulled easing expectations back, but the Bank of Canada setup remains dovish.  Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate,...

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