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CAD

09 Jan 2024

Caution Prevails, Keeping Currencies Rangebound

The dollar is performing in a mixed manner relative to its major rivals this morning as risk appetite fades amid a lack of definitive trading narratives. Investors are taking dovish comments from the Bank of Portugal’s Governor with a huge helping of salt. The euro-dollar exchange rate remained effectively unchanged after Mario Centeno told an interviewer “I don’t think we have to wait until May” to make a decision on cutting rates, “I don’t see any sign that second-round effects on wages have materialised or will materialise or that wages will put additional pressure on prices”. Odds on the European...

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08 Jan 2024

Fed Pivot Hopes Stabilize, Leaving Currencies Unmoved

Equity markets are down ahead of the North American open after midair blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight hammered Boeing shares and lent new meaning to the term “window seat” – but risk appetite in other asset classes has been left largely unaffected. Fixed income and currency markets are relatively stable, with the dollar retreating only modestly from its early-year highs. Friday’s session was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Treasury yields and the dollar rallied when data was released showing US job creation and wage gains accelerating in December, but the move faded as traders parsed the details,...

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05 Jan 2024

Solid Jobs Creation Pushes Monetary Easing Expectations Back

The US economy generated stronger wage growth and more jobs than expected in December, adding momentum to an ongoing reversal in Federal Reserve rate cut bets across the financial markets. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 216,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, remaining near historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, solidly topping expectations for a 3.9 percent increase. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 170,000-job gain, and the unemployment rate was seen moving slightly higher. Diffusion indices – which measure...

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05 Jan 2024

Dollar Climbs Ahead Of Payrolls

Rate-sensitive currencies and financial assets are retreating once again as overwrought monetary easing expectations undergo a forced unwind. Odds on a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting have fallen below 65 percent from over 90 percent in December, with this morning’s non-farm payrolls report expected to show the US job creation engine continuing to churn out new roles. Markets think 170,000 new jobs were added in December, even as wages cooled and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent. Data out yesterday showed continuing claims remaining low against an improved private sector hiring backdrop. Equity futures are softer,...

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04 Jan 2024

Market Hangover Eases

Having moved past the puking stage, traders have moved from the bed to the sofa, and are now ordering McDonald’s for delivery. Equity futures are setting up for modest gains at the North American open, Treasury yields are stabilizing, and pro cyclical units are climbing across currency markets as post-New Year positioning adjustments near completion. Minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s December meeting seemed consistent with three rate cuts this year, beginning later than March. Policymakers broadly agreed that easing could prove necessary this year, noting “the downside risks to the economy that would be associated with an overly restrictive...

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