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CAD

05 Jun 2024

BoC cuts rates. ECB set to follow.

• Positive tone. Equities higher, while bond yields fell. BoC delivered its first rate cut this cycle. There were more signs the US labour market is cooling.• FX moves. Limited net moves in currencies. USD index a touch firmer, with a softer JPY the main driver. EUR & AUD treading water.• Data flow. ECB tonight. A rate cut is fully priced. Q1 AU GDP confirmed growth momentum is weak. But this is what is needed to tame inflation. It was a generally positive tone across markets overnight. European and US equities rose, with strong gains in technology stocks coming through....

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05 Jun 2024

Bank of Canada Cuts, Telegraphs More Easing Ahead

The Bank of Canada delivered a long-awaited rate cut this morning, and language in the accompanying statement set the stage for more easing to come at subsequent policy meetings – a regime shift that should add to momentum pushing the Canadian dollar lower. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “Overall, recent data suggest the economy is still operating in excess supply,” and “has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2 percent target”. Officials noted that consumer price growth has slowed, with three-month measures showing “continued downward momentum”. All of the Bank’s...

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05 Jun 2024

Rate Cut Bets Resurface As Economy Slows

With the US economy showing more signs of exhaustion, traders are tiptoeing back into bets on policy easing from the Federal Reserve before year end. Treasury yields – which have provided the fuel for the dollar’s recent outperformance – are climbing off a two-day low, equity futures are advancing as odds on two rate cuts in 2024 creep higher, and the greenback itself is little changed. US job markets cooled further last month. According to yesterday’s Job Openings and Labour Turnover survey, the number of open roles in the US fell from a revised 8.355 million to 8.059 million in...

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04 Jun 2024

US Slowdown Concerns Weigh on Risk Appetite

The dollar is steadying, Treasury yields are moving sideways, and equity futures are down after Monday’s session brought new evidence of the growing headwinds facing the US economy – raising hopes for earlier policy easing from the Federal Reserve while also challenging earnings expectations. Yesterday’s Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey proved disappointing. The factory sector remained in negative territory, with the headline index unexpectedly declining to 48.7, down from 49.2 in the prior month, and well below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Most worrisomely, the new orders sub-index fell below inventories, suggesting that businesses could slow...

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03 Jun 2024

More signs of a US slowdown

• US ISM. A weaker US manufacturing ISM rattled nerves. The drop in US bond yields has weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• Labour market. US JOLTS due tonight. Non-farm payrolls out on Friday. Signs the US jobs market is cooling may exerted more pressure on the USD.• AU data. Q1 GDP due tomorrow. More inputs released today. Modest growth anticipated. But offshore forces/USD trends have more of an AUD impact. A surprisingly weak US ISM manufacturing survey, a leading indicator for cyclical momentum in the economy, rattled a few market nerves overnight. In contrast to expectations predicting...

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