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CAD

Dollar Slumps On Diminishing Tail Risks 

In yesterday’s Congressional testimony, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned markets not to expect rates to begin coming down in the near term, but acknowledged the need to “begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year,” and said that central bankers remain “squarely focused” on their dual mandate. Market participants – who had been alert to the possibility of a pushback against easing financial conditions – breathed a sigh of relief, sending yields and the dollar lower for a fifth consecutive session. Broadly speaking, softer data releases and consistent messaging from Fed officials over the last week have...

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Bank of Canada Stays On Hold Amid “Uneven” Inflation Progress

As had been almost universally-expected, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark overnight rate unchanged this morning, but language in Governor Macklem’s statement tilted in a slightly more hawkish direction than market participants had anticipated, helping to boost the exchange rate. In prepared remarks released ahead of the post-decision press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said “Today’s decision reflects Governing Council’s assessment that a policy rate of 5 percent remains appropriate. It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate”. “Looking ahead, we continue to expect inflation will be close to 3 percent through the middle of the year...

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Markets Retreat on Expected Fed Hawkishness

Markets are trading with a negative bias as traders brace for a hawkish message from Jerome Powell during this morning’s Congressional testimony. If the Federal Reserve chair joins his colleagues in arguing that there’s no rush to start cutting rates, investors will begin betting on an upward shift in the central bank’s policy projections. It would take only two officials turning more cautious to lift the median March “dot plot” toward showing just two rate cuts this year, down from the three previously expected. Treasury yields are holding steady, and the dollar is little changed against most of the majors....

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Caution Prevails as Fed Officials Make Hawkish Noises

Risk appetite is fading ahead of the North American open as traders brace for a more hawkish turn from Jerome Powell during tomorrow’s semi-annual Congressional testimony. Officials seem to be growing uncomfortable with the recent easing in financial conditions. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic last night suggested that the central bank’s first rate cut was likely to land in the third quarter, with a pause followed by moves spaced out over time. “Given the uncertainty,” he said, “I think there is some appeal to acting and then seeing how participants in the markets, business leaders, and families...

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Markets Go Quiet Ahead of Busy Week

Activity in the currency markets remains muted ahead of what could become a dangerous week for believers in the “soft landing” consensus. The dollar is inching higher against most of its major rivals, and ten-year Treasury yields are sitting near the 4.2 percent mark, recovering somewhat after losing altitude toward the end of last week. Data out on Thursday showed monthly core inflation accelerating in January, but this seemed mainly driven by idiosyncratic factors that are unlikely to repeat themselves. Social Security cost-of-living adjustments and a rise in stock market valuations helped lift personal incomes, but pay growth slowed. On...

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