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08 Apr 2024

Dollar Pushes Higher Ahead of Economically-Eventful Week

The dollar is trading with a firmer bias ahead of a week filled with first-tier economic events, and after Friday’s forecast-crushing US jobs number triggered a pop in Treasury yields. Both the pound and euro are starting the week on the back foot, weakened by expectations of earlier rate cuts from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while the Japanese yen remains hemmed in by short sellers on one side and the threat of intervention on the other. Global oil benchmarks are losing altitude after Israel said it would withdraw some troops from Gaza, reducing perceived geopolitical risk...

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05 Apr 2024

US Jobs Number Smashes Estimates, Canada’s… Doesn’t

The US job creation engine accelerated in March, further lowering market-implied odds on rate cuts in the back half of the year. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 303,000 jobs were added in the month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent, and average hourly earnings climbing 0.3 percent month-over-month. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a circa-215,000-position gain, and no major forecaster had anticipated a print above the 270,000 mark. Hours worked – often considered a better measure of underlying labour market trends – ticked higher to 34, surprising...

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05 Apr 2024

Markets Lick Wounds After Sharp Selloff

Markets are struggling to regain their footing after a rise in geopolitical tensions triggered a classic flight to safety. Equities and risk-sensitive currencies tumbled yesterday afternoon as investors sought refuge in bonds, the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and dollar. Benchmark crude prices jumped to the highest levels since October after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at a meeting of the security cabinet soon after a phone call with US President Joe Biden, said “Iran has been acting against us for years, directly and via proxies. And, therefore, Israel acts against Iran and its proxies, defensively and offensively… We will...

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04 Apr 2024

Sentiment Improves On Stabilising Rate Expectations

Risk appetite is improving this morning after yesterday’s softer-than-expected price data and relatively dovish comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell helped ratify expectations for rate cuts in the remainder of the year. Ten year yields are holding near 4.35 percent, the greenback is on the defensive, and the euro and pound are advancing ahead of the North American equity market open. Treasury yields slipped and the dollar suffered its biggest drop in a month when the Institute for Supply Management’s services index dropped to 51.4 from 52.6 in February, with the “prices paid’ sub index falling to the lowest...

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28 Mar 2024

Canadian Economy Outperforms Forecasts, Lifting Loonie

The Canadian economy grew more quickly than expected in the first two months of the year, helping reduce market-implied odds on an imminent pivot to easing at the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product topping forecasts with a 0.6 percent expansion in January, followed by a potential 0.4-percent gain in February. The services sector led gains, with a 0.7-percent rise in January, helped by the ending of public sector strikes in Quebec in November and December. A rise in home resales helped lift activity among real estate agents and brokers. But...

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