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CAD

Currency Markets Brace for Event Risk-Laden Week

Currency traders are on edge ahead of a series of event risks that could trigger renewed volatility in foreign exchange markets. The dollar is inching lower after last week brought confirmation of a weakening in retail sales, along with an unexpected increase in jobless claims during the June non-farm payrolls survey period. Recent data has shown clear evidence of slowing momentum in the US economy, but the greenback has continued to win the “cleanest dirty shirt” contest, emerging largely unscathed as other major currencies have come under selling pressure. Friday’s ‘triple witching’ session left the major equity indices unharmed, but...

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Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market ‘Triple Witching’

The US dollar looks set to consolidate its weekly gains in today’s session as traders remain cautious, but equity markets could exhibit some volatility as a ‘triple witching’ episode – when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day – contributes to abnormal activity. Treasury yields are holding steady, and oil prices are inching higher. The Mexican peso staged a modest recovery late in yesterday’s session after Claudia Sheinbaum said she would appoint former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard to head the economic ministry, helping assuage market concerns around a lurch toward populist policymaking. Ebrard...

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Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite

The dollar is reversing an early-week decline and Treasury yields are creeping higher as market participants return from yesterday’s US holiday. North American equity futures are adding to their gains, and a broader improvement in sentiment is helping feed through into appreciation in high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – amid still-thin trading conditions. A surprise easing decision from the Swiss National Bank is helping bolster liquidity expectations. Officials in the financial safe haven elected to lower inflation projections and deliver a 25 basis point rate cut as they work to reduce restrictiveness and counter recent strength in the...

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Hawkish RBA vibes support the AUD

• Upbeat tone. Negative US economic news was good news for markets. Softer US retail sales weighed on bond yields which in turn boosted risk assets.• RBA meeting. No change in rates but the RBA’s tone was more ‘hawkish’. Inflation risks remain. We think RBA cuts still look some time away.• AUD outperformance. The backdrop has supported the AUD. AUD/EUR is at a multi-month high, while AUD/JPY is at levels last traded in 2013. The positive vibes continued overnight. Easing concerns about the upcoming French parliamentary elections was compounded by softer US retail sales. The underwhelming US economic news was...

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RBA: No retreat, No surrender

No shock and awe from the RBA today, but its underlying tone did lean a little more ‘hawkish’. The cash rate was held steady at 4.35%, where it has been since last November, with the Board also reiterating it needs to “remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation” and that it “is not ruling anything in or out” when it comes to future moves. This is now a somewhat familiar mantra, and although the hurdle for another hike looks high the chances aren’t zero with the start of the RBA’s easing cycle appearing some time away. Getting consumer prices down...

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