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05 Aug 2024

Global Financial Markets Crack, Volatility Surges

A long period of unusual calm in financial markets was shattered over the weekend, when the Japanese stock market imploded and cross-border carry trades unwound in a violent manner. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down 12.4 percent—marking its worst selloff since the “Black Monday” crash in 1987—and the yen is trading near the 142 threshold after having hit 161 less than two weeks ago. Volatility expectations are soaring. Safe-haven Treasury yields are plummeting, with the policy-sensitive two-year returning less than 3.7 percent—down from 4.4 percent early last week—and the ten year seeing similar dynamics. Futures prices show the Nasdaq headed...

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02 Aug 2024

Global Selloff Intensifies

In an unusual turn of events, investors are suddenly acting as if bad news for the economy might also be bad news for financial markets. During yesterday’s session, evidence of rising unemployment and a deepening contraction in the US manufacturing sector helped compound the effects of a series of underwhelming earnings reports, triggering a plunge in major stock indices – and the selling looks set to continue at this morning’s open, as futures point to further losses. Air seems to be coming out of the artificial intelligence bubble. Updates from the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft this week...

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01 Aug 2024

Fed Easing Hints Carry Markets Higher

Financial markets are kicking off a new month in an ebullient mood after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank is prepared to cut them in September if inflation keeps moving lower. Treasury yields are lower across the curve, equity futures are consolidating for another day of gains, and commodity prices are broadly higher. On foreign exchange bourses, price action is more mixed, with a generalised improvement in risk appetite intersecting with still-elevated geopolitical tensions to alleviate selling pressure on the greenback: the Canadian dollar is holding steady while most other majors...

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31 Jul 2024

Canadian Dollar Pops, Greenback Falls On Relative Improvement

The Canadian economy accelerated toward the end of the second quarter, helping reduce market-implied odds on an aggressive easing cycle from the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product heading toward a 2.2-percent annualised gain in the three months ended June, above market forecasts and the Bank of Canada’s 1.5-percent estimate. The economy expanded 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in May, topping the 0.1-percent consensus as 15 of 20 economic sectors reported growth and goods-producing industries advanced. Manufacturers generated the biggest upside contribution—most likely on a rise in export demand—and retail...

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31 Jul 2024

Currency Market Price Action Begins to Accelerate

The Bank of Japan raised benchmark lending rates and announced plans to cut its monthly bond purchases by half in last night’s meeting, moving closer to unwinding an unconventional monetary policy programme that began in the late nineties. Surprising—but not shocking—market participants, the central bank under Governor Kazuo Ueda lifted the target for the uncollateralised overnight call rate to 0.25 percent, up from the previous zero-to-0.10 percent range, and said it would gradually reduce government bond purchases to around ¥3 trillion a month by early 2026, down from the current ¥6 trillion. With internal Bank forecasts pointing to a self-reinforcing...

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