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CAD

15 Apr 2024

Calm Returns As Geopolitical Shocks Fade

Market reaction to the weekend’s Iranian attack on Israel has been muted. Intentionally or not, Tehran telegraphed its actions well in advance, most of the missiles and drones were downed before reaching military targets, and its diplomats signalled a desire to de-escalate things further, telling the UN “the matter can be deemed concluded”. Israel’s war cabinet authorised retaliatory strikes, but a sternly-worded message from the White House appears to have put reprisals on the back burner for now. Longer-term escalation remains a risk, but investors generally struggle to assign probabilities to more complex, path-dependent outcomes, so the conflict looks likely...

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12 Apr 2024

Calm After the Storm Brings Currency Volatility Down

Treasury yields are stabilising and the dollar is recovering ground after losing a little altitude during yesterday’s session when a closely-watched input cost index climbed by less than expected. The producer price index for final demand rose just 0.2 percent month-over-month in March, with a third consecutive increase in services costs obscuring a cooling in many of the components that go into the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. Taken in combination with Wednesday’s consumer price print, the data suggest that the personal consumption expenditures index will rise somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis when the next update...

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11 Apr 2024

Markets Grapple With New Rates Landscape

Markets are extending yesterday’s moves after another hotter-than-expected inflation report delivered a serious blow to market expectations for an imminent pivot to easing from the Federal Reserve. Data out yesterday morning showed core price indices rising more than forecast on a monthly and annual basis in March, making it more difficult to believe that the January and February numbers were lifted by residual seasonality. Jerome Powell’s preferred “supercore” measure accelerated to 5 percent on an annualised basis as core transportation, medical, and education services prices remained stubbornly elevated. Fixed income markets reacted badly. Swap-implied odds on a June rate cut...

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10 Apr 2024

Another US CPI market jolt

• US inflation. A higher than expected US CPI generated a sharp repricing in US rate expectations. This supported the USD & dampened sentiment.• AUD tumble. The shift in market pricing & stronger USD has push the AUD lower with the AUD’s April revival unwinding overnight.• AUD crosses. The AUD also underperformed on the crosses. We think this looks a bit overdone. ECB meeting, US PPI, & Fed speakers in focus tonight. Another hotter than projected US CPI reading jolted markets overnight as it further challenged the US Fed’s view that inflation pressures are on a glidepath back down to...

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10 Apr 2024

Bank of Canada Stays Cautious, Disappointing Doves

As had been widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, and language in the accompanying statement, Monetary Policy Report, and prepared comments remained steadfastly neutral, leaving market expectations for a rate cut at the June meeting largely unchanged. It the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged weakness in the economy at the end of last year, and noted that labour market conditions continue to ease. “Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1 percent in March”. But updated...

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