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CAD

07 Jul 2025

Markets Trade Sideways As Trade Uncertainties Loom

The dollar is holding near a three-year low and measures of risk appetite are pointing to subdued trading action after the Trump administration seemingly extended its tariff deadline to August 1—reducing fears of a violent selloff around Wednesday’s original drop-dead date. Measures of trade policy uncertainty* have fallen sharply from their heights. At an event dubbed “Liberation Day” in early April, President Trump said imports from most countries would become subject to a 10 percent baseline tariff rate, and additional “reciprocal” levies—some ranging as high as 50 percent—would be applied against those running large trade imbalances with the US. However,...

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03 Jul 2025

Jobs boost

• Upbeat tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD edged up overnight. EUR eased back, as did NZD & AUD, though they remain at high levels.• US data. US jobs report a bit better than expected. But topline result masks some pockets of weakness under the hood. Private payrolls were soft.• Event radar. US on holiday tonight. Next week RBA & RBNZ meet. RBA expected to cut rates. US’ ‘pause’ on higher tariffs also due to end. Global Trends Ahead of tonight’s US Independence Day holiday US equities extended their upswing, bond yields rose, and the USD recouped a...

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01 Jul 2025

USD remains on the back foot

• Consolidation. Modest moves across most markets. USD index remains heavy with EUR pushing higher. AUD hovering near top of its range.• Macro pulse. US manufacturing ISM shows momentum still sluggish. US jobs report the main data focal point later this week.• AU data. Retail sales & building approvals released today. After a subdued start to the year will retail spending turn the corner? Global Trends Modest moves across markets at the start of the new month. US equities slipped back a touch from record highs (S&P500 -0.1%), US bond yields nudged up after trending lower the past few weeks,...

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30 Jun 2025

US dollar blues

• Pressure points. US equities hit another record high, while the USD remains under pressure. AUD has risen to the top of its multi-month range.• USD trends. USD index ~10.5% below where it started the year. Worst performance over the first half of a year since the early-70s.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI & ECB conference in focus tonight. Various US jobs indicators due over next few days. US ISM also released tonight. Global Trends Risk sentiment ended the month, and volatile quarter, on positive footing with the US S&P500 (+0.5%) hitting a fresh record high and cyclical currencies like the...

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29 Jun 2025

US jobs in focus

• Holding on. Pockets of volatility on Friday but on net US equities & bond yields rose. EUR continues to climb. AUD drifted a little lower.• US macro. Consumer spending fell. Some signs of tariff impacts on US inflation. Has the uncertainty flowed through to the US jobs market?• Event Radar. China PMIs today. Annual ECB conference & EZ inflation due this week. US jobs report scheduled (Thurs night AEST) ahead of US holiday. Global Trends Markets were whipsawed a little during Friday’s trade by a couple of tariff related developments and US economic releases. Risk sentiment temporarily soured a...

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