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CAD

10 Jun 2024

Dollar Advances, Euro Retreats On Rising Political Risk

The dollar is holding near five-week highs this morning as Federal Reserve rate cut hopes continue to fade and renewed political uncertainty roils the euro area. Equity futures are setting up for a more subdued open, Treasury yields are down on safe-haven flows, and commodity prices are broadly lower. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report forced traders to push the expected initiation of the Fed’s easing cycle further into the future. Job growth surged, with a 272,000-position gain topping market expectations, and wage growth accelerated, rising 0.4 percent month-over-month. Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in 36 basis points in easing by...

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07 Jun 2024

Jobs Numbers Beat Expectations, Lifting Yields

The US job creation engine sped up in May, further diminishing odds on a rate cut before the November election. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 272,000 jobs were added in the month, solidly overshooting the 175,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Revisions to prior months saw overall gains lowered by a total 15,000 positions. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4 percent, breaking a 28-month stretch below the 4 percent threshold, and wage gains accelerated, exacerbating...

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06 Jun 2024

Market Mood Brightens

Optimism is cool again. Investors are in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s session saw a critical measure of services-sector sentiment top expectations, helping assuage recession fears and power equity indices to record levels. The dollar is softer, Treasury yields are steady, and several of the biggest US tech companies are sitting on market capitalisation gains bigger than most economies. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index clocked in at its highest level since last August, suggesting that the biggest sector in the US economy remains in rude health. The headline index hit 53.8 in early May, above the 50 threshold...

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05 Jun 2024

BoC cuts rates. ECB set to follow.

• Positive tone. Equities higher, while bond yields fell. BoC delivered its first rate cut this cycle. There were more signs the US labour market is cooling.• FX moves. Limited net moves in currencies. USD index a touch firmer, with a softer JPY the main driver. EUR & AUD treading water.• Data flow. ECB tonight. A rate cut is fully priced. Q1 AU GDP confirmed growth momentum is weak. But this is what is needed to tame inflation. It was a generally positive tone across markets overnight. European and US equities rose, with strong gains in technology stocks coming through....

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05 Jun 2024

Bank of Canada Cuts, Telegraphs More Easing Ahead

The Bank of Canada delivered a long-awaited rate cut this morning, and language in the accompanying statement set the stage for more easing to come at subsequent policy meetings – a regime shift that should add to momentum pushing the Canadian dollar lower. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “Overall, recent data suggest the economy is still operating in excess supply,” and “has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2 percent target”. Officials noted that consumer price growth has slowed, with three-month measures showing “continued downward momentum”. All of the Bank’s...

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