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CAD

Currency Markets Enter Holding Pattern

Financial markets are in calm-before-the-storm mode ahead of a raft of economic data releases that are expected to show the US economy outperforming its advanced-economy peers, and before Americans head to the polls to choose the next president. The dollar is holding recent gains, Treasury yields are down slightly, equity futures are little changed, and oil prices are steadying after yesterday’s steep descent. The pound is trading sideways ahead of tomorrow’s Autumn Budget, and deteriorating cross-Atlantic rate differentials are keeping pressure on the euro. The Canadian dollar remains firmly on the defensive, pressured by weak domestic fundamentals, widening yield spreads,...

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Markets Hunker Down As Event Risk Minefield Looms

De-risking activities are dominating trading activity in financial markets this morning as participants brace for what could be the most momentous fortnight of the year. Treasury yields are climbing once again, with the ten-year now yielding 4.25 percent, the dollar is advancing against its major peers, and trade-sensitive currencies – like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso – are flirting with year-to-date lows. Crude prices are down sharply after Israeli aircraft struck military targets in Iran over the weekend, avoiding any obvious harm to the country’s energy infrastructure and giving Tehran room to avoid another round of escalation. Implied volatility...

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Mean Reversion Kicks In, Forcing Dollar Retreat

Treasury yields are slipping for a second day as an early-week barfing episode gets washed out of markets, the dollar is retreating, and rival currencies are edging higher ahead of the North American equity open. Orders for durable goods fell by more than expected last month, but changes in aircraft orders obscured a relatively-positive read on underlying fundamentals. On a headline basis, new orders for goods meant to last more than three years fell -0.8 percent in the United States in September, but core capital goods – which exclude aircraft and defence products – climbed 0.5 percent, building on August’s...

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Pressure building

• Negative vibes. Wobbles across risk markets with US equities slipping back overnight. Higher US yields supported the USD. AUD under pressure.• Macro trends. Bank of Canada cut rates by another 50bps. Global PMIs due today. US Fed easing expectations have been pared back.• US election. Presidential election fast approaching. Odds of a Trump win & Republican sweep on the rise. This is also boosting the USD. A few wobbles across markets overnight. Base metal and energy prices slipped back, and a selloff in tech stocks weighed on the US equity market with the NASDAQ (-1.6%) underperforming the broader S&P500...

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Bank of Canada Delivers Outsized Cut

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by an outsized 50 basis points this morning, broadly matching market expectations and triggering a small drop in the loonie. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged a broad-based slowdown in Canada, noting that consumption is declining on a per-capita basis, the labour market is “soft”, and the “economy continues to be in excess supply”. Near-term growth expectations were revised down. Updated projections in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report showed the Bank’s economists expect growth to end 2024 at 1.8 percent – down from the previous 2-percent estimate....

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