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CAD

22 Oct 2025

Swings & roundabouts

• Push-pull. Pockets of vol. in some asset classes. US equities eased, bond yields consolidated & USD tread water. AUD & NZD held steady.• US CPI. US Gov. shutdown ongoing. But US CPI will be released Friday night. Diverging trends between ‘goods’ & ‘services’ prices. USD vol. likely.• AU macro. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. Q3 CPI due next week. Firmer inflation pressures may temper enthusiasm about RBA rate cuts. Global Trends There were pockets of volatility across some asset classes overnight on the back of some news headlines. But on net the moves were rather modest. Reports the Trump...

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20 Oct 2025

Risk sentiment turning the corner

• Market swings. A few bursts of volatility the past few weeks. Sentiment was positive overnight with the S&P500 rising & AUD clawing back lost ground.• US data. US Government Shutdown remains in place. But given its importance the delayed US CPI report will be released this week (Fri night AEDT).• RBA pricing. Uptick in AU unemployment has seen markets price in a greater chance of another RBA cut. Q3 CPI due next week. This may temper views. Global Trends There have been a few bursts of volatility over the past week or so stemming from a mix of renewed...

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16 Oct 2025

No data, no news, no volatility

The dollar is cruising toward a third consecutive day of declines and short-term Treasury yields are coming under mild downward pressure as investors firm bets on a fairly-forceful easing path from the Federal Reserve. Most major foreign exchange pairs are caught in narrow trading ranges amid a lack of political and economic catalysts, leaving currencies like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso almost unchanged on the week. The Fed’s latest Beige Book survey pointed to a slowing in momentum in the world’s largest economy. On balance, “economic activity changed little” between September and October, with three of twelve districts reporting...

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15 Oct 2025

Dollar retreats on dovish messaging from Powell, trade tensions keep simmering

The dollar is retreating and benchmark Treasury yields are plumbing four-week lows after Federal Reserve chair Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from countering market expectations for rate cuts at each of the central bank’s final two meetings this year. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economic annual meeting in Philadelphia yesterday, Powell said the “outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago”. Although “growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected,” available data show “goods price increases primarily reflect tariffs rather than...

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10 Oct 2025

Dollar loses momentum on fading geopolitical risks, Canadian dollar leaps on strong jobs

A nascent recovery in the dollar is stalling out this morning as geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Japan, and the euro area show signs of easing. The greenback is down -0.2 percent against a basket of its major counterparts, Treasury yields are edging lower, and US equity indices are setting up for a modestly-positive open. Oil prices are slipping as markets remain oversupplied and risk premia evaporate in the face of a potential peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, and terms of trade indices—which measure the ratio of export prices to import prices—are turning against the US dollar. The...

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