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CAD

29 Jul 2025

Currency Traders Turn Cautious As Event Risks Multiply

The US dollar is gaining as investors turn more cautious ahead of a raft of important economic data releases and central bank decisions through the remainder of the week. In a pattern familiar to aficionados of the ‘dollar smile’ theory, the greenback is climbing on continued outperformance in the US economy, a firming in rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, and a dimming growth outlook in other major economies. The Japanese yen and British pound are treading water against a resurgent Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar is coming under sustained selling pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision,...

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28 Jul 2025

Dollar Climbs On Trade Deal With EU, Traders Brace For Havoc Ahead

The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union, reducing uncertainties facing businesses and investors on both sides of the pond. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and measures of implied volatility are pushing higher as traders brace for an intense and tumultuous week. The euro is trading lower as investors process what looks like a lopsided deal. According to President Trump, imports from the EU will be tariffed at 15 percent—except steel and aluminium, which will remain at 50...

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27 Jul 2025

Let’s make a deal

• Dealmaker. Trade optimism supported US equities & USD at end of last week. AUD & NZD drifted a little lower. EUR ticked higher this morning.• US/EU deal. Over weekend US/EU announced a 15% tariff framework. Deal is similar to US/Japan. More ‘stability’ but economic headwinds remain.• Event Radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). In the US this week earnings season continues, Q2 GDP & non-farm payrolls are out, & US Fed meets. Global Trends There was some relative outperformance in US markets at the end of last week. In contrast to modest falls across European/Asian equities on Friday the...

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24 Jul 2025

Earnings and Trade Optimism Spreads, Boosting Risk Assets

Risk-sensitive assets are looking buoyant this morning as perceived tail risks recede and investors turn more optimistic on the direction of global growth. The US dollar is up slightly, Treasury yields are inching higher, and major American stock indices are climbing ahead of the North American open after series of strong corporate earnings releases in recent days, coupled with a drumbeat of trade deal reports, helped allay fears of a more severe downturn in the US and world economies. The euro is holding firm after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged and avoided telegraphing its next moves, leaving market...

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22 Jul 2025

Intra-Day Volatility Falls As Newsflow Grinds To A Halt

Currency markets are turning in a mixed performance this morning amid an utter lack of new volatility catalysts. The dollar is holding steady in line with placid Treasury yields, most major currencies are trading within 20 basis points of yesterday’s close, and the yen is giving back some of yesterday’s gains after Prime Minister Ishiba’s governing coalition suffered losses in the weekend’s election. In the background, the dollar’s rebound appears to be fading. After investors spent much of early July correcting overly-bearish views on the American economy’s prospects by pushing monetary easing expectations back, short-term interest rates are reaching levels...

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