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CAD

21 May 2025

Dollar Retreats As Market Momentum Slows

The ‘Sell America’ trade is back in play this morning. The dollar is unwinding last week’s gains and is down against all of its major counterparts, US equity markets are setting up for a bruising open, and the Treasury curve is bear steepening*, with 30-year yields pushing back above the 5-percent threshold on growing concerns surrounding Washington’s fiscal trajectory. Oil prices are up on an unsubstantiated report suggesting that Israel is planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Fiscal concerns are growing more acute. Republican lawmakers are reportedly close to approving a bill that would renew President Trump’s 2017 tax...

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15 May 2025

Markets Retreat on Signs of Consumer Strain

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are up against the greenback. Oil prices are trading lower after President Trump said the US is close to reaching a deal with Tehran that would lift sanctions on its energy exports in exchange for a commitment to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons development....

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13 May 2025

Economic Scepticism and Soft Inflation Weigh on Dollar

Euphoria surrounding the weekend’s US-China tariff climbdown is fading this morning, and the dollar is retreating in the face of a third consecutive monthly undershoot in inflation data. Treasury yields are pushing lower, equity futures are pointing slightly higher, and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are back to outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. Consumer price growth slowed in the United States last month, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more breathing space as it seeks to address slowdown risks in the economy. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price...

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12 May 2025

US-China Trade Ceasefire Boosts Global Asset Prices

A palpable sense of relief is washing over global markets after the US and China agreed to temporarily cut most tariffs on each other’s goods ahead of further trade negotiations. North American equity futures are setting up for a circa-3-percent rally at the open, Treasury yields are inching higher, and both global oil benchmarks are climbing. In currency markets, the dollar is trading near a one-month high against its major counterparts, and the safe-haven Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and euro are all slumping in relative terms. Under an agreement reached in Geneva over the weekend, US tariffs on Chinese goods...

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11 May 2025

Words vs actions

• Positive talks. Constructive talks between US/China over the weekend. But a deal may take some time. This may temper the markets excitement.• Market trends. Equity futures have opened positively. USD index a little firmer. AUD & NZD ticked up thanks to relative strength on cross-rates.• Event Radar. In AU the monthly jobs report is out (Thurs). In the US, CPI, retail sales, import prices due this week. Tariff impacts will be looked for. Global Trends Markets consolidated at the end of last week with limited economic data released and with participants lasering in on the weekend meeting between US...

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