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CAD

Currency Market Price Action Slows, Canadian Inflation Eases

A sense of calm has descended upon global financial markets as the data cadence slows, geopolitical developments settle to a dull roar, and monetary policy expectations stabilise. Benchmark Treasury yields are almost unchanged relative to yesterday’s open, equity futures are pointing to another day of incremental gains, and measures of implied currency volatility remain low—even across short-term tenors that include Friday’s hotly-anticipated speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Here in Canada, inflation pressures subsided more than expected last month, slightly raising the likelihood of a rate cut in early 2026. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the...

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Traders Turn Cautious in Run-Up to Jackson Hole

Good morning, and welcome back. In the US, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near last week’s levels, equity futures are setting up for a modest advance at the open, and the dollar is trading near a three-week low against most of its major rivals. The euro is trading lower given that there’s been no appreciable unwinding in geopolitical risk after presidents Trump and Putin emerged from a meeting in Alaska without anything resembling a deal to end the war in Ukraine. And measures of risk appetite are creeping lower across the G10 currency space as traders brace for Federal Reserve...

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Jackson Hole in focus

• Consolidation. US equities drifted back a bit on Friday, but still rose over the week. USD a little softer. AUD & NZD ticked up modestly.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates again (Weds). Global PMIs are due (Thurs). US Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole (Fri night AEST). Global Trends A subdued end to last week across markets as macro and geopolitical forces pushed and pulled on various asset classes. On net, US equities drifted back a bit from record highs on Friday (S&P500 -0.3%), though it wasn’t enough to stop the S&P500 from posting its 6th...

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Revived US inflation fears

• US PPI. Much stronger than expected US producer prices rekindled inflation fears. US yields rose, as did the USD. AUD back below 1-month average.• AU jobs. Employment report broadly inline with forecasts. Unemployment hovering just above 4%. Supports the case for gradual RBA easing.• Data flow. China activity data due today. In the US, retail sales & industrial production out tonight. Data could generate more USD volatility. Global Trends There was a bit of a ripple across markets overnight on the back of resurfacing US inflation fears. US Producer Prices were much stronger than forecast with the 0.9% monthly...

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Shifting Fed views

• Positive vibes. Global equities pushed higher with markets factoring in a series of US Fed rate cuts. USD softer. AUD & NZD edge a little higher.• AU jobs. Volatile employment report released today. Labour demand is cooling. Will the AU jobs data rebound or is a new (weaker) trend forming?• US data. Producer prices & jobless claims out tonight. US retail sales & import prices due Friday. US Fed expectations (& the USD) may be impacted. Global Trends There was limited top tier economic data released overnight. As a result, market sentiment was driven by a few US Fed...

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