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24 Apr 2025

Recovery Falters As Trade War Ceasefire Hopes Are Dashed

A nascent relief rally in markets is stalling out as hopes for a thaw in the US-China trade war unravel amid contradictory signals from officials. The dollar is coming under selling pressure once again, Treasury yields are inching lower, and equity futures are cruising toward renewed losses at the North American open. Risk appetite improved enormously yesterday morning when the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was planning to reduce tariffs on China by roughly half — from 145 percent to somewhere between 50 and 65 percent — dovetailing with the president’s somewhat-conciliatory comments on Tuesday evening, when...

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23 Apr 2025

Relief Washes Over Markets As US Dials Down Rhetoric

The dollar is strengthening, yields are edging lower, and North American equity markets are barrelling toward a second day of gains after the Trump administration appeared to soften its stance on several policy fronts. Risk sentiment improved early in yesterday’s session on signs that the administration intends to retreat from its maximalist positions on China. In a closed-door meeting with investors, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said “No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable at 145 and 125 percent” tariffs, “So, I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. And I think...

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22 Apr 2025

Selling Moderates as Assault on Fed Independence Slows

The greenback is finding its footing once again after selling pressure intensified during yesterday’s session when President Trump doubled down on his attacks against Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. In a post on social media that landed after multiple firing threats, Trump demanded that the central bank deliver “pre-emptive” rate cuts, saying inflation is trending “nicely downward” and “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW”. Equity futures are setting up for a bounce at the open, yield curves are flattening, and currencies like the euro, pound, yen, and...

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21 Apr 2025

Markets Plunge as Trump Administration Steps Up Threats Against Fed

Financial markets are getting hit again this morning, with US equity indices, Treasuries, and the dollar all tumbling in synchrony as investors assess new threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence against an increasingly-forbidding growth backdrop in the world’s largest economy. The greenback dropped more than 1 percent on a trade-weighted basis in overnight markets after the Trump administration stepped up its attacks on Jerome Powell, threatening to demolish the Fed’s hard-won independence from political pressure. In a series of posts on his Truth Social platform last week, Trump argued that interest rates should be cut, saying “Powell’s termination cannot come...

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16 Apr 2025

US pain points

• US trends. US equities lost ground, as did bond yields & the USD. This helped currencies like EUR, AUD, & NZD lift. USD/JPY at multi-month lows.• Central banks. BoC surprised by keeping rates steady. US Fed Chair Powell indicated tariff impacts leave policymakers in a difficult spot.• Macro events. NZ CPI a bit hotter than forecast. China growth stronger. AU jobs report due today. ECB also expected to cut interest rates again. Global Trends A ‘risk off’ tone returned to US markets overnight with equities losing altitude (S&P500 -2.2%, NASDAQ -3.1%) and bond yields declining for the third straight...

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