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CAD

05 Jan 2023

Conflicting narratives keep dollar rangebound

The trade-weighted dollar flatlined overnight as optimism surrounding China’s reopening process helped offset cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The pound and euro are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as falling inflation prints put pressure on yields, and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the day – but has gained on a year-to-date basis along with other commodity-linked currencies. Currency markets shrugged yesterday when a record of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting was released, showing that officials thought “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation would be needed before rate hikes could pause. Central bankers warned “an unwarranted easing...

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23 Dec 2022

Market Wire: Resilient North American Data Keeps Tightening Expectations Alive, Weighing on Risk Appetites

American households slowed spending last month but the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exceeded expectations, bolstering the case for continued tightening in 2023. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed inflation-adjusted household outlays were unchanged in November, decelerating sharply from the 0.5-percent gain posted in the prior month. Markets had expected a print closer to 0.2 percent. Personal income rose 0.4 percent month-over-month, led by a 0.5-percent increase in private sector wages and salaries. Incomes are 4.7 percent higher relative to the same month last year. The core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the...

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23 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Go Quiet Ahead of 2023’s Last Data Releases

‘Tis the day before the night before Christmas, and all through the markets, not a trader is stirring, not even one with a mouse. Trading ranges are narrow and volumes are down after better-than-forecast economic data triggered a selloff during yesterday’s session, lifting the dollar and crushing nascent rallies in risk-sensitive currencies. Upward revisions in consumer spending and business investment categories lifted third quarter gross domestic product to 3.2 percent annualized, up from the previously-reported 2.9 percent, and the number of jobless claims came in below economist estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are not delivering the...

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21 Dec 2022

Market Wire: Canadian Price Growth Weakens, But Core Inflation Remains Stubbornly Elevated

Headline Canadian inflation slowed last month, but underlying price indicators rose by more than forecast, raising monetary policy expectations for the months ahead. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 6.8 percent on a year-over-year basis in October, with the month-over-month change hitting 0.1 percent – narrowly exceeding consensus economic forecasts for a flat print. Gasoline prices tumbled -3.6 percent month-over-month while food prices underwent their typical November acceleration, climbing 1.2 percent. Shelter costs kept climbing, up 0.6 percent month-over-month as higher interest rates took their toll. Mortgage interest costs increased on a year-over-year...

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21 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Currencies Rangebound As Liquidity Ebbs

Currency traders are all nestled in their spreads, with visions of sweet incomes dancing in their heads. Equities and risk-sensitive currencies are inching higher, the dollar is trading on a mixed basis against its major rivals, and Treasury yields are slightly weaker across the curve. Japan’s yen is holding onto gains achieved on Monday when the central bank shocked markets by opting to relax its yield-suppression efforts. Even if the Bank of Japan’s policy adjustment was not designed to tighten financial conditions, the effect has been just that: two-year government bond yields are above zero for the first time since...

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