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CAD

15 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Climbs on Big Trouble in Even Bigger China

Evidence of a deep and prolonged slowdown in the Chinese economy is taking a toll on global risk sentiment this morning, with safe haven demand sending the dollar higher amid parched liquidity conditions. Raw materials prices are falling, commodity-linked currencies are on the defensive, and North American equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. Treasury yields are essentially flat as some investors cling to bets on a “soft landing” — in which inflation decelerates but a deep recession is avoided — in the US economy. Consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in early August. According to estimates...

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11 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Consolidate After Spectacular Rally

The most politically-incorrect word in economics is back. Mentions of “transitory” inflation have come into vogue again after yesterday’s data showed headline prices were unchanged in July after rising every month for the last two years, with the core measure also rising by less than expected. Market participants are increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of hikes, lowering long-term rates and making monetary conditions more accommodative. Last week’s tightening in financial conditions has largely reversed, with yields back to pre-non-farm payrolls levels and the dollar dramatically weaker against most of its major rivals. The greenback slipped as...

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08 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Turn Wary

Markets seem to have remembered the most fundamental rule in finance this morning: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. The dollar is falling and yields are coming under pressure as traders turn slightly more sceptical on the underlying details and near-term sustainability associated with Friday’s astonishingly-strong jobs numbers, with growth seen decelerating and employment rates expected to soften in coming months. Policy expectations are falling. Implied odds on a 75 basis point move at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are holding near 68 percent, up from 40 percent prior to the release, but down relative to...

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05 Aug 2022

Market Wire: US Job Growth Smashes Expectations, Dollar Rises

528,000 jobs were created in the United States last month – far above expectations, and sufficient to compel a larger rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in July, and the participation rate moved down to 62.1 percent. Overall payroll employment has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels – hardly indicative of an economy toppling into recession. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent month-over-month, accelerating from 0.3 percent in June. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned for a 250,000-job gain, with...

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05 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Hit Snooze Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Traders have set their alarm clocks a little later this morning, with most asset classes set to snore loudly until 8:30 am when the July non-farm payrolls report is released. Equity indices are flat on their backs, the commodities complex is sleeping in the fetal position, Treasury yields and the dollar are nestled under the covers, and most major currency pairs are spooning comfortably. This morning’s jobs number could be vital in setting near-term market direction. Investors expect the July non-farm payrolls report to function a little like Goldilocks’ porridge: If it is too hot, with more than 300,000 jobs...

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