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CAD

25 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Trades Sideways on Market Cross-Currents

The dollar is turning in a mixed performance this morning as Treasury yields slip and major currency pairs move in diametrically opposed directions. Ten-year yields are holding around 4.17 percent and the trade-weighted greenback is back to levels that prevailed at the beginning of the month, with the big European units inching upward even as Asia falls. The pound continues to ascend, building on gains achieved over the weekend when Boris Johnson pulled out of the race to succeed Liz Truss as British prime minister. With Rishi Sunak now at the helm, markets expect some semblance of fiscal orthodoxy to...

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21 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: US Yields Keep Climbing, Tightening Vise on Markets

As hopes for a policy “pivot” fade, US Treasury yields are continuing their inexorable ascent this morning. Equity markets look set to extend yesterday’s losses, commodities are coming under renewed pressure, and currency traders are buying the dollar once again. Terminal rate expectations are still rising. In a speech yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker said “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4 percent by the end of the year,” and warned tightening would likely continue into 2023, saying “Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates”....

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20 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: UK Political Turmoil Continues, Yen Breaks 150, Dollar Climbs

The British pound is back on the defensive, weakening as political chaos and conflicting monetary policy messages sap demand for sterling-denominated assets. Prime Minister Liz Truss—now in power for all of 44 days—is under pressure to resign after firing one of her most senior ministers, receiving resignations from two more, and threatening others with disciplinary action if they failed to vote on party lines. A number of Ministers of Parliament have submitted no confidence letters, and the chair of the 1922 Committee—which represents the views of party leaders—is reportedly meeting with Truss to discuss ways to move forward. The Bank...

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19 Oct 2022

Market Wire: Canadian Inflation Surprises, Lifting Rate Expectations

Canadian inflation slowed by less than expected in September, raising the odds on a 75 basis point move at next week’s Bank of Canada meeting. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed consumer prices rising 6.9 percent year-over-year in September, with the month-over-month increase amounting to 0.1 percent, beating expectations for a -0.1 percent decline. Annual inflation peaked at 7.6 percent in July, and fell to 7 percent in August. Core inflation, computed as the average of the three price measures preferred by the Bank of Canada (trim, median, and common), increased an annualized 5.3 percent – roughly unchanged...

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19 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Currency Markets Trade Sideways as Yields Creep Higher

Volatility expectations are inching back up, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar is firming as central bank officials keep making hawkish noises. Rate differentials tilted further in the greenback’s favour and terminal expectations moved higher during yesterday’s session after Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said rate hikes wouldn’t pause until core inflation subsides, and said “I don’t see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5 percent or 4.75 percent or something like that”. The pound is down more than half a percent after an inflation report showed prices rising 10.1 percent in the year to September, higher than the...

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