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Expectations are falling.

Market illusions about the relative resilience of Canada’s economy have been exhausted in recent months, and swap-implied rate projections for the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have converged in a dramatic fashion. Yield differentials and the loonie have come under sustained pressure, with central bankers on both sides of the border now seen delivering rate cuts at a roughly-similar pace through the course of 2024.

Number of Rate Cuts Expected, By Meeting

USD bouncing back
1 day ago
Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report
1 day ago
Dollar Tumbles as US Labour Market Slows
4 days ago
Dollar Edges Lower Into Payrolls
4 days ago
US payrolls in focus
5 days ago
Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears
5 days ago

Latest Analysis

All Commentary

Latest Analysis

USD bouncing back
09 September, 2024
• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range....
Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report
09 September, 2024
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of...
Dollar Tumbles as US Labour Market Slows
06 September, 2024
US labour markets softened more than expected for a second month in August, bolstering odds on a more decisive easing response from central bankers this autumn. According to data released by the Bureau...
Dollar Edges Lower Into Payrolls
06 September, 2024
The dollar is trading near a one-week low as the minutes count down to what could easily become the year’s most pivotal data release: the August non-farm payrolls report. With investors broadly convinced...
US payrolls in focus
05 September, 2024
• Hold the line. US S&P500 dipped, as did US yields & the USD. US ADP employment underwhelmed. But this hasn’t been a great guide for payrolls.• US employment. Non-farm payrolls tonight....
Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears
05 September, 2024
The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury...
Rate expectations jolted
04 September, 2024
• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market...
Bank of Canada Cuts, Softens Dovish Stance
04 September, 2024
As had been widely expected, the Bank of Canada delivered a third consecutive rate cut this morning, and language in the accompanying communications helped prepare the ground for further easing in the...
Foreshocks Rumble Financial Markets
04 September, 2024
Seismic activity is intensifying across financial markets ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. A series of temblors hit during yesterday’s session, with Nvidia suffering the largest nominal one-day...
Australia GDP: growth vs levels
04 September, 2024
The dated Q2 Australian GDP confirmed what we should have already known. The growth pulse is subdued with higher interest rates and cost of living squeeze working to constrain consumer spending, construction,...

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