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CAD

09 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Volatility falls in the run-up to an eventful week

The dollar is setting up for a third day of losses even as markets prepare for an onslaught of potential volatility catalysts in the week ahead. Economists think the US will report a 7.3-percent rise in headline consumer prices when it drops November’s data on Tuesday – confirming a steady easing in inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce another half-percentage-point hike on Wednesday, and publish an updated set of policy projections showing a gradual deceleration in coming months. The European Central Bank and Bank of England will probably deliver their own half-point hikes on Thursday. Traders will...

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08 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Risk appetite erodes as markets brace for turbulent week ahead

The dollar is creeping higher as traders begin to cut risk ahead of next week’s US consumer price report and Federal Reserve meeting. Both events carry the potential to drive unpredictable changes in year-ahead rebalancing flows across currency markets, and hedging demand is pushing up one-week implied volatility levels in most majors. The Canadian dollar is back near levels that prevailed ahead of yesterday’s rate decision. The Bank of Canada raised rates by more than expected – half a percentage point – but offset the impact on yields and the exchange rate by signalling an imminent pause in its tightening...

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07 Dec 2022

Market Wire: Bank of Canada surprises with a bigger and more dovish hike than expected

The Bank of Canada lifted its benchmark overnight rate by half a percentage point to 4.25 percent this morning, while telegraphing an imminent pause in its monetary tightening cycle. The decision surprised markets that had anticipated a smaller quarter point move – but softened the blow by lowering expectations further out. In the statement accompanying the decision, the central bank said “growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continued to operate in excess demand,” observing that “Canada’s labour market remains tight, with unemployment near historic lows”. Signs of a slowdown were flagged: “While commodity exports...

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07 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Trading ranges narrow as inflation fears ebb

Currency markets are becalmed, with bond yields and interest differentials trading within remarkably-tight ranges as central bank policy trajectories become – seemingly – more predictable. Yields in the major economies moved less than two basis points over the course of yesterday’s session, marking a big departure from the dramatic moves seen earlier in the year. The euro is almost-imperceptibly higher after Eurostat said the economy expanded slightly more than previously estimated in the third quarter.Gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent between July and September, beating the 0.2 percent initial estimate as fixed capital investment and household consumption helped offset an...

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06 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Markets stay defensive after hotter-than-expected services data

The Institute for Supply Management said yesterday that its service sector index climbed in November from the month before, providing more evidence of resilience in the American economy. The measure ticked up to 56.5 from October’s 54.4, remaining well above 50, the threshold between expansion and contraction. Investors reacted badly, boosting bets on more hikes from the Federal Reserve, buying the dollar, and selling risk-sensitive currencies en masse. Markets look rudderless this morning, with the greenback holding ground as the other majors turn in a mixed performance. Yields are stable after yesterday’s jump, and equity futures are pointing to a...

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