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CAD

Hot UK Inflation Lifts Global Yields, Leaves Currencies Largely Unmoved

Famous last words perhaps, but today is shaping up to be a quiet one in currency markets. Treasury yields and the trade-weighted dollar are inching higher after a hotter-than-expected British inflation print put upward pressure on global interest rates and pushed equity and commodity futures into a defensive posture – but trading ranges remain unspectacular relative to recent months. The British pound jumped this morning after the latest inflation numbers topped expectations, making a rate increase at the next Bank of England meeting far more likely. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics, consumer prices climbed 10.1 percent in...

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Chartbook: April 17

Exhibit 1 There’s only one story in FX markets. Change In Spot Exchange Rate Against USD, Relative to September 27, 2022, % [embedpress embedpress_embeded_link=” prefix_nftcreator=’false’ prefix_nftprice=’false’ prefix_nftlastsale=’false’ label_nftbutton=’false’ loadmorelabel=’false’ label_nftrank=’false’ label_nftdetails=’false’ embedpress_pro_embeded_source=’default’ embedpress_pro_embeded_nft_type=’false’ spotify_theme=’false’ embedpress_pro_video_start_time=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_end_time=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_auto_play=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_display_controls=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_enable_fullscreen_button=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_display_video_annotations=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_progress_bar_color=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_force_closed_captions=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_modest_branding=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_display_related_videos=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_size=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_custom_dimension=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_xpos=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_xpos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_xpos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_ypos=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_ypos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_ypos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_opacity=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_logo_opacity_hover=’false’ embedpress_pro_youtube_cta=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_auto_play=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_color=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_display_title=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_display_author=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_avatar=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_loop=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_autopause=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_dnt=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_size=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_custom_dimension=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_xpos=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_xpos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_xpos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_ypos=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_ypos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_ypos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_opacity=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_logo_opacity_hover=’false’ embedpress_pro_vimeo_cta=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_auto_play=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_color=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_captions_enabled_by_default=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_fullscreen_button=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_small_play_button=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_resumable=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_focus=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_captions=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_playbar=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_volume_control=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_volume=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_rewind=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_rewind_time=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_size=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_custom_dimension=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_xpos=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_xpos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_xpos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_ypos=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_ypos_tablet=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_ypos_mobile=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_opacity=’false’ embedpress_pro_wistia_logo_opacity_hover=’false’...

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Volatility Trends Lower as Global Monetary Tightening Cycle Winds Down

Markets are trading sideways this morning after the latest producer price data brought more evidence of an easing in inflation pressures – and ahead of a retail sales report that could show a decline in overall consumer spending levels. Equity futures are down slightly, with losses concentrated in banks that are expected to report weaker earnings in the coming days. With investors bracing for a final volley of rate hikes from major central banks—and positioning for cuts that seem likely to follow—short-term yields are edging up, but remain stable across the rest of the curve. The dollar is flat against most...

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US Inflation: something for everyone

• US CPI. Headline inflation slowed a bit more than expected, but core inflation remains high. The conflicting signals generated intra-day volatility.• Softer USD. The USD lost some ground. But will it last? Sticky US core inflation points to another Fed rate hike. Rate cut pricing for later this year looks misplaced.• AUD mixed. AUD focus today will be on the Australian labour market data. Reopened borders mean the hurdle to keep unemployment steady has risen. The latest read on US CPI inflation was the focus overnight. There was something for everyone in the data, and this generated divergence across...

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US CPI in focus

• Calm markets. Focus is on tonight’s US CPI. Headline inflation should mechanically slow, but core inflation could remain high. This can support the case for further tightening by the US Fed.• AUD mixed. AUD slightly higher against the USD, but remains under pressure against EUR and GBP as monetary policy outlooks diverge.• NZD underperformer. Despite last week’s larger RBNZ rate hike, NZD has fallen back. Markets are starting to factor in a RBNZ ‘policy mistake’. Markets were relatively calm overnight, with tonight’s US CPI in focus (10:30pm AEST). The US S&P500 ended the day flat, with the tech-focused NASDAQ...

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