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CAD

Canadian economy flatlines, driving loonie lower

The Canadian economy shrank unexpectedly in the late summer, helping ratify market expectations for a prolonged pause – and an eventual climbdown in rates from the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product remaining essentially unchanged in August after flatlining in the prior month, missing expectations for a 0.1-percent expansion. The retail sector lost 0.7 percent and accommodation and food services dropped 1.8 percent as higher borrowing costs and weaker wage growth impacted household spending. Manufacturing industries contracted 0.6 percent, and agriculture slipped 3.2 percent on declining prices and slower activity. An...

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Dollar eases amid heavy macro data flow

The US dollar and yields are edging lower after the US Treasury surprised investors by lowering its estimates for government borrowing in the fourth quarter, helping ease fears of a supply-led melt-up in rates. According to yesterday’s release, net issuance is expected to hit a record $776 billion over the final three months of the year, but this is down from the $852 billion projected in late July as higher-than-anticipated tax receipts help offset funding requirements. Tomorrow morning’s issuance plan – which will outline the cadence and scale of auctions – could have a more meaningful effect on the rates...

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It’s quiet. Too quiet.

It may be the most wonderful time of the fear, but foreign exchange markets remain remarkably calm. 1-month implied volatility – a measure of expected swings in exchange rates – in G7 currency pairs is holding almost a full standard deviation below post-2000 norms, and remains well below comparable indicators in other asset classes. We doubt this can be sustained as geopolitical risks simmer, outcomes diverge across the major economic blocs, and stress grows on the global financial system. We’d try to remind market participants of the ghosts of previous foreign exchange shocks – major moves tend to occur just...

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Traders exit safe havens ahead of busy week

Markets are unwinding risk haven trades this morning, following a pattern established over the last several weekends, with Gaza-related geopolitical exposures forcing traders to square positions before each Friday close, only to reopen them each Monday. With Israeli forces advancing more cautiously than had been feared, oil prices are down, gold is coming under selling pressure, and equity futures are edging higher. The dollar is broadly softening against its major counterparts – including the Canadian dollar – but ten-year Treasury yields are again pushing past the 4.85-percent mark as investors brace for a tumultuous week in fixed income markets. The...

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Price action slows into US growth data and European rate decision

The dollar is rising ahead of data that is likely to show the American economy expanding at a remarkably-aggressive pace in the third quarter, defying widespread expectations for a slowdown. Consensus estimates suggest this morning’s data will show output growing 4.7 percent in the third quarter, but the “whisper” number is considerably higher, nearing the 5 percent mark, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” model is pointing to a 5.4-percent expansion. Anything in this range would serve to highlight the yawning performance gap between the US and its major counterparts, and would mark the latest in a long line of...

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